Breeders’ Cup Future Stars Friday
“The Eye-Catchers”
There will be a lot of column inches and podcast minutes filled with discussion about the winners of the races on Future Stars Friday at the Breeders’ Cup, but what about the horses that chased them home? Here are my notes on some of the horses that didn’t win on Friday afternoon at Del Mar and what clues we can take from the data about their form in the future.
Golden State Juvenile Fillies’ Stakes - Miss Kona (4th)
It might seem unusual to start this piece with a look at a Stakes race on the undercard, but having watched this race several times, including to analyse the Stewards enquiry between the first pair, I can’t help but feel that Miss Kona was one of the most unlucky losers on Friday’s card. She has form with both the winner and the runner-up, having finished behind Mohaven on debut at the start of August before getting the better of Cashed when breaking her maiden tag over the same course and distance 3-weeks later. Stepping up in trip for the first time in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies, she was slightly slow to leave the gate, taking 12.21s to reach the first pole, the slowest time in the 11 runner field. That left her behind a wall of horses and crucially, she was forced to check her momentum as she entered the far turn. She ran the fastest 4th furlong in the race in 11.73s and seemed to be closing on the leaders when forced to sidestep around one of her rivals. That stalled her momentum and she ran 12.93s for the 5th furlong, ranked only 6th. Her race could well have finished there, but to her credit she made strong headway once brought wide into the straight by Antonio Fresu. She finished her race with the best closing furlong in the field (13.03s) as well as maintaining the highest average stride frequency figures in the home straight at 2.27 per second. A run-out speed of 32.57 mph (ranked 1st) made her 1.66 mph faster than the winner by the time they were 2s past the winning line. Whilst we can’t be certain that she would have won the race, she would almost certainly have hit the frame with a better run around the far turn. On all 3 starts to date she has ranked in the 2nd half of the field for her opening furlong, in fact she has been last at the end of the opening furlong on 2 of her 3 starts and as a result, she will need to improve her early speed. However, she has proven herself at this trip and should make up into a stakes filly if she can iron out her issues when leaving the gate.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Brussels (2nd)
The next eye-catcher is slightly more obvious and I’m sure that most of you saw the way that Brussels finished his race when chasing home Cy Fair in the Juvenile Turf Sprint on Friday evening. To call him an unlucky loser would do a dis-service to the winner, who was excellent and thoroughly deserved her success. However, having shipped across from Ireland and most importantly carried that same level of form to the Breeders’ Cup, Brussels is the horse to build this form around and given the way the race panned out, we can certainly upgrade this performance. Brussels lost his race at the start, missing the break under Christophe Soumillon and around the tight turns of the Del Mar Turf course, that was always going to make this an uphill task. However, to his credit, under a calm ride from Soumillon, Brussels made his way through the field, forcing his way through the gaps around the home turn to chase the winner all the way to the line. A top speed of 45.41 mph saw him ranked 1st of the 12 runners (next best Havana Anna 44.92 mph) and having run the quickest final quarter of a mile in the field, on another day he may well have been able to give Cy Fair a tougher task. All roads must surely lead to some of the big 6 furlong targets in Europe next season on the back of this performance.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies - Percy’s Bar (3rd)
I think it’s important to highlight the fact that Percy’s Bar would not have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Friday night, even if she had enjoyed a clear run around. However, after being disqualified from the Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland in October, her connections would be justified in thinking that they are due a change of luck. Having traveled behind the pace, she was making her move around the inside at the end of the final turn, when bumped into the rail by Meaning, who was in fact forced inwards by Tommy Jo, the winner of the Alcibiades stakes, changing her lead leg on the outside and drifting left. All of this cost Percy’s Bar considerable momentum, but to be fair to her, she showed a fantastic attitude to gallop on to finish 3rd. The first point to make is that she has confirmed the form with Tommy Jo from the Keeneland race, a small crumb of comfort for her connections, but a sense that she is a Grade 1 filly and worth her place at this level. Her attitude cannot be questioned and having recorded a run-out speed of 31.05 mph, she has produced a remarkable finish. The winner, Super Corredora, ran an incredible race from the front and the winning time more than backs up the sense that this was an above average renewal of the race. Having lost so much momentum around the turn, the fact that Percy’s Bar was able to rally and ran a faster final furlong split (13.89s) than the 2 horses that finished ahead of her, would suggest that with a change of luck, she may yet be able to add a Grade 1 victory to her CV.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Pacific Mission (2nd)
On just her 4th career start, Pacific Mission has finished 2nd in a Breeders’ Cup race and she certainly took her form to an entirely new level on Friday afternoon. Having been virtually last at the end of the first couple of furlongs, she found herself 1.47s behind the early lead. Making her way through the field under Colin Keane, she was the fastest horse in furlongs 4 (11.77s), 6 (12.30s) and 8 (11.63s) as she chased home the equally impressive Balantina. A wide draw in stall 12 may have forced Colin Keane’s hand at the start, but given the fact that she recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at 37.89 mph, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about this filly over a mile and possibly beyond in the 2026 turf season in Europe. Her Dam (Big Break) was a G3 winner over a mile and she is a half-sister to a couple of pattern winners over 10 furlongs, so it is not impossible to think that she may yet stay even further than the mile, but she holds an entry in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh and that would look to be an obvious target for her if she trains on over the Winter.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.