FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance
“Ted Noffey”
There is no doubt now about who the most promising 2-year-old in the US will be this year. Ted Noffey is the favourite for the Kentucky Derby after his success in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Friday afternoon at Del Mar and deserves to be so. Whilst he didn’t make this an easy watch for his supporters in the home straight and some might point to the fact that this was the smallest field to go to post for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the data would still suggest that he had a lot left in the tank when he crossed the line and as such, may yet be capable of further improvement in 2026.
Settled perfectly by John Velazquez, he had the ideal position throughout, tracking his main rival (Brant) from the moment the stalls opened as the pair got to the front after taking 17.82s to reach the 7 furlong pole. The start was clearly a key point in the race in Velazquez’s mind, as he made sure that Brant wasn’t able to dominate from the front as he did when winning the G1 Futurity here in early September. The 11.29s run by Ted Noffey in the 2nd furlong was the fastest split in the field and even at such an early stage, that appears to have been a race winning move that got the favourite into the correct position for a race run at this pace. A finishing speed of 95% meant that this wasn’t the end-to-end gallop that it might have appeared and there will be questions raised about the strength of the form given the close proximity of the outsiders Mr A.P. and Litmus Test in the final furlong. However, once asked to go and win his race, Ted Noffey found more, quickening to lead around the final turn as his stride reached a race peak average length of 24.31 ft. He actually recorded the shortest average stride length in the field overall, but with the highest average stride frequency (2.37 per second) and a top speed of 39.95 mph, he had too much speed for his rivals. His penultimate furlong split of 12.17s was also a “race best” figure and had he galloped on to win by 3 lengths, we would probably be celebrating this as one of the best Juvenile performances of the century, but he didn’t.
Did he idle in the final furlong? Almost certainly. This was the only point in the race that Ted Noffey did not record the longest average stride length and having quickened to an average stride frequency of 7.13 per second in the penultimate furlong, he then dropped that pace to 7.05 per second in the last. Whilst this could be interpreted as tiredness, that doesn’t tally with the way he hit the line, pulling out more when Brant and Mr A.P. got to his hind quarters and recording the highest run-out speed figure in the field at 33.87 mph. The fact that he went all the way around the turn before being pulled up with one of the outriders would also suggest that he had plenty left to give had it been required. Much like his victory in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, there is a sense that John Velazquez was holding plenty in reserve in the closing stages and at this stage, Ted Noffey is the horse that all of next year’s Triple Crown contenders will have to beat.
Would I be prepared to back Ted Noffey for the Kentucky Derby 2026 on this evidence? No. I don’t want you to think for one moment that I am against him because I am not. He is a wonderful racehorse and there is every chance that he could be a Kentucky Derby winner, but this race does not conclusively prove that he will stay that far. A steady pace, controlled by the principles, in a race where the pace only dipped below 12s for 1 furlong would suggest that Ted Noffey was ideally placed. Brant ran a strange race, appearing beaten around the turn before rallying briefly and his final 4 furlongs ranked 1st, 6th, 3rd and 4th. Brant recorded an average stride length of 25.28 ft, the longest figure in the field and it may be that Bob Baffert’s charge simply wasn’t suited by the way the pace developed. There are no excuses for that, Flavien Prat got his horse into the ideal position and he simply wasn’t quick enough to beat a horse like Ted Noffey. However, if we assume that his main rival didn’t run to his best and the close proximity of Mr A.P. and Litmus Test, horses that Ted Noffey should have beaten based on their overall form, then we have to just hold back a small amount of enthusiasm about what Ted Noffey may yet achieve.
Those are the slight doubts, but they are very slight. This was a superb performance and the data would suggest that there is even more to come next year. When we look back at the 2-year-old crop from 2025, Ted Noffey will be the name at the top of the list.