We have reached the final day of the Chester Cup meeting which includes the feature race of the week, the Ladbrokes Chester Cup at 3:05. A 17-runner handicap requires a lot of luck to win, so we will leave that race in today’s preview of the data from TPD. Instead, we have looked at the Huxley Stakes at 2:35 for our final race preview of the May meeting.
2:35 – IRE-Incentive, It Pays to Buy Irish Huxley Stakes (Group 3)
The early markets for this race have formed around The Foxes. At the weights, he comes out best with an official BHA rating of 115, but he hasn’t won on turf since May 2023 and that would certainly raise some doubts. We should add at this point that he has largely been campaigned in top class company and a repeat of his 2nd place finish behind Rebel’s Romance in Doha would probably be enough to win this race. However, he hasn’t run since ending his International season in February and he’s yet to win a race on the back of a break of 75-days or more. He did win on his latest start in the UK, but that came on the All-Weather at Newcastle where he was able to control the pace in a steadily run race (with a finishing speed of 107%) and he essentially won that contest with his early speed, taking just 6.8s to reach 30 mph from the stalls. That early speed could be the key here, but his record on turf is not inspiring enough to take such a short price.
It has now been over 2-years since Cairo won a race and his recent form in Dubai does not look to be strong enough to win this race. However, a case can certainly be made for most of the other runners. DeepOne has won 3 of his 6 starts in Ireland and looks capable at this level, although he did appear to struggle in the deep ground at Leopardstown on his seasonal return. That was a strong renewal of the Ballysax stakes, but his finishing speed was just 90% and he was 2.33s slower than the winner over the final quarter of a mile. The return to better ground should help his cause, but that looked to be a hard race and he will need to produce a career best effort to win.
Space Legend is very lightly raced after only 6 starts and although he hasn’t been seen since August, his form last season which included a 2nd placed finish in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot would suggest that he is capable of winning a race like this. Although he has already proven that he will stay further, he was the fastest horse on the speed clock at York on his latest start where he recorded a top speed of 42.9 mph, so the drop back to 10-furlongs on a more speed focussed track should not put you off.
Bolster ended last season in great form with a pair of wins at York and Newmarket on Soft ground. Karl Burke has already been amongst the winners this week so the absence of 188-days shouldn’t be a concern. However, his last 4 victories have come on ground with the word soft in the going description and his top speed of 38.36 mph in the autumn would not be sufficient in this field. Liberty Lane has a solid record and he has the services of Ryan Moore. He faded behind Dancing Gemini on his return at Doncaster in March, losing 1.46s on the winner in the final 2-furlongs. He should strip fitter now, but the concern may instead be the track. His last 3 wins have come on straight courses and he may simply be better on a more galloping track.
The horse to catch the eye in the early market was Certain Lad. His best form last season came in France, but he has a solid record at this level in the UK and his latest run at Paris Longchamp was against Group 1 horses who contested the Prix Ganay last week. He made the running that day and probably went too fast, clocking furlongs of 12.26 and 12.09s at the top of the hill. He wasn’t able to hold on in the closing stages, but that early speed will be far more useful at Chester than it is at Longchamp. As a 9-year-old, he may prove to be vulnerable to younger legs later this season, but with race fitness on his side, our data suggests that he could lead and may prove hard to catch.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.