This race has potential. Not just the potential to be a good race, but the potential to be the best renewal of this race that there has ever been and possibly one the best races of the calendar year. There are plenty of races that look good on paper beforehand and don’t necessarily deliver, but if Forever Young and Romantic Warrior take each other on in the Riyadh straight, this could be a race for the ages. However, that scenario requires an answer to a difficult question, will he handle the dirt?
Here at TPD we deal in facts. Data taken from as many angles as possible. Will Romantic Warrior handle the dirt surface? Nobody knows. Until those gates open on Saturday, it will be impossible to be sure and much like City of Troy at the Breeders’ Cup, the question will only be answered on race day. However, this is what we can say about Romantic Warrior. He has won 18 races and over £18m in prize money. He has traveled to Japan and Dubai and been victorious in the last 12-months, so there should be no concern about the change of location. Most importantly, he arrives here on the back of a breathtaking performance in the Jebel Hatta at Meydan.
That race was on the turf and we do need to make allowance when looking at the time figure because the sadly ill-fated Measured Time set some incredibly fast fractions in front which towed the rest of the field into the race. Measured Time ran opening furlongs of 13.98, 10.67 and 10.94s, which saw him with a significant advantage at the end of the back straight. However, from that point onwards Romantic Warrior took centre stage. Over the final 1000-metres, Romantic Warrior ran the fastest individual split for 4 of the final 5-furlongs, including 10.84s for the penultimate furlong, the only horse to dip below 11-seconds in the latter part of the race. At 27.92 ft, his maximum stride length was the longest in the field and that allowed him to clock a top speed of 42.35 mph. That long stride could be the key for Romantic Warrior and it should allow him to remain in contention with what is likely to be a strong early pace.
The obvious concern, apart from the questions about the surface, will be how well he handles the start. On dirt, getting an early race position can be so important, especially if the horse has limited experience of the kickback and on that point, there is a potential weak point in Romantic Warrior’s armour. He ran an opening furlong of 14.42s at Meydan, the slowest first furlong in the field and if he does that on Saturday night, he may be caught out of his ground on the dirt. Now to be fair to Romantic Warrior, he is used to starting faster and the sectional times show that he has broken on terms in his most recent starts at Sha Tin, but it is a slight doubt.
If Romantic Warrior doesn’t take to the surface, then the most likely horse to take advantage is clearly Forever Young. The winner of the Saudi Derby on this card 12-months ago, he has lots of experience on the dirt and has finished placed in both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the last 12-months. That is the best dirt form on offer in this field and no matter what happens to his rivals on Saturday, he looks the most likely horse to run his race and it is hard to imagine a scenario where he isn’t involved in the closing stages of the race. He finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but despite having the ideal draw in stall 1, a case can certainly be made that the Del Mar track didn’t suit. He broke well, running 12.45, 10.32 and 10.90s for the opening 3-furlongs to hold a position on the inside rail behind the early pace and his rider, Ryusei Sakai would have been fairly happy at halfway.
However, whereas Sierra Leone was able to lengthen his stride and quicken around the field on the home turn, Forever Young was caught behind horses and forced to switch wide in the home straight. To be fair to Forever Young, he rallied well once in the clear, running the fastest final furlong in 12.84s and his run-out speed of 33.60 mph was better than the runner-up (Fierceness). However, the tight bend didn’t seem to suit and given that he clocked a top speed of 43.96 mph in the early stages of the race, he should be in a much better position on Saturday. He has already proven himself at the track and we know that he handles the surface, so it is very hard to build a case against him.
This isn’t a 2-horse race. Whilst Forever Young and Romantic Warrior are the most likely winners, there are some other horses for whom a small case can be made from the TPD data. Rattle n Roll is arguably “best of the rest” and he was an impressive winner of the Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs in November on his latest start in the US. That race developed into a relative sprint with a finishing speed of 99.55% and he came home in 11.92 and 12.38s to finish off Most Wanted in the closing stages. That form is some way behind the levels that the principles in the market have achieved, but he is improving and he does have experience of the track in Riyadh, courtesy of his win in a qualifier for this race in January. He didn’t need to be at his best to beat Wait to Excel on that occasion and neither his top speed figure (39.37 mph) nor the fact that he took 7.2s to reach 30 mph from the gate would be particularly inspiring. However, we know he handles the dirt and the track and with a stalking ride from Joel Rosario, he could be ridden to come with a late run.
Facteur Cheval won the Dubai Turf last season and he has been largely consistent throughout his career, so he should run his race. He ran well when 3rd to Walk of Stars in the Al Maktoum challenge on his first start on the dirt 4-weeks ago, but he has work to do to reverse that form, let alone to take another step forwards to win this race. Walk of Stars made all to win in Dubai, but he had a faster top speed (41.52 mph), a faster run-out speed (33.87 mph) and a quicker final furlong (12.69s) than Facteur Cheval and whilst Jerome Reyniers charge might get closer with the benefit of his dirt experience, he is far from certain to reverse a 7-length defeat. Walk of Stars has won twice over this trip in the last 2-months and having taken 5.2 and 5.4s to reach 30 mph from the start, he may well be the pace angle in this race too, even with a wider draw. The percentage call would suggest that he may not be able to hold off all of the challengers in the straight, but he might be able to use that early speed to get into a position where he can hold on for some prize money.
Ushba Tesoro was 2nd in a Dubai World Cup last year, but he hasn’t looked to be in the same form since and any case for him causing a surprise would be made in hope rather than expectation at this stage. The form of Al Musmak and Defunded, who have winning form at the track is unlikely to be good enough and whilst there is more uncertainty about the South American runners, on balance their form seems unlikely to reach the level required.
Unless one of the South American runners go forwards from the gate, Walk of Stars looked likely to be the pace angle and he should set this race up to ensure that it will be a fair test. The solid option is Forever Young. He ticks so many boxes. Surface, Course, Form, Early Speed, Stamina and Ability. However, whilst he has won a Saudi Derby, he has also found a habit of finding one or two horses with slightly more class and if he doesn’t get an ideal trip, he could be outpaced at a crucial stage before staying on again. The best horse in this race is Romantic Warrior. He is a class apart and has achieved the most. I can’t be certain that he will handle the dirt surface. There is no data that can answer that question at this stage. However, he has plenty of speed, he stays well and he has an enormous stride, which should be ideally suited to this test if he acts on the surface. Until proven otherwise by the dirt, he is the horse that I would want to be with.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.