If you weren’t aware that the Flat season was underway, you certainly will be after the whole host of Classic contenders that we have seen in the last 7-days. I have decided to focus on the 3-year-olds for this week’s review of the TPD data and start my review with a look at the Classic trials at Newmarket.
Newmarket
Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3)
The rain before racing on Tuesday had a significant effect on the ground and the winning times would suggest that the official going description of “Good to Soft” was a little optimistic. Zanzoun ran a winning time of 1:29.22, which was the slowest winning time in this race in the last 20-years. In difficult conditions, this was a clever ride by Kieran Shoemark, who steadied his mount from the start, dropping her in behind the early pace by taking 8.3s to get to 30 mph and holding her back when the free running Cartwheel was pulling hard in front of him. Once settled, she traveled strongly to the 2-furlong point before finishing her race well in 11.68 and 12.88s, the fastest final quarter of a mile in the field. She appeared to relish the rising ground on the run to the line, producing a final furlong that was 0.15s faster than anything else in the field and then recording the fastest run-out speed at 32.01 mph. A finishing speed of 103% would suggest that this was still a relatively strong test of stamina in the conditions and she was definitely the filly that was suited best by the way the race panned out. She broke her maiden tag at Southwell in November and took a huge step forward to win here, but the soft ground seemed to have a negative effect on a lot of her rivals and John Gosden’s post-race interview seemed to imply that the soft ground was the key for her. The French Guineas looks to be her main target as her connections would prefer to take on Zarigana in Paris rather than Lake Victoria at Newmarket a week earlier.
Celestial Orbit also emerged from this race with huge credit. On her first start since July, she settled in rear under Jamie Spencer and was 7-lengths and 0.81s behind the leader at the end of the 2nd furlong. However, racing closest to the far side rail, she made good headway and was faster than the winner on the clock for the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th furlongs. She understandably tired in the closing stages and her run-out speed of 30.83 mph was slower than Zanzoun, but she did record a better top speed at 38.90 mph and is probably the filly to come out of this race with the best form chance in the 1,000 Guineas next month. The form of her Listed win at Sandown in July worked out very well and there is every reason to think that she will take a step forward from this.
Having been drawn towards the stands side in stall 10, Remaat raced away from the main pack and although she wasn’t able to match the finishing kick from the winner, closing in a time of 37.28s for the final 3-furlongs, 0.6s slower than Zanzoun, she has run a career best when we allow for the fact that she has raced away from the rest of the field. A run-out speed of 31.16 mph was only surpassed by the winner and she is clearly suited by the Rowley Mile. On the back of a 290-day break, this was a remarkable run from Andrew Balding’s filly and she is a horse to note in the week’s ahead.
Both Nardra and Verse of Love ran below their market expectations and it may be that the conditions were to blame for both. Verse of Love was very keen in William Buick’s hands and didn’t see out her race despite running the fastest 5th furlong in the race at 11.99s. The fact that she took 9.2s to reach 30 mph, the slowest time in the field, would suggest that she wasn’t able to find her feet in the early stages (she took just 6.2s to reach the same speed when winning here on debut in October) and it is probably best to put a line through this performance from such an inexperienced filly. Nardra traveled well to the 3-furlong pole, but she became unbalanced in the dip and was easily passed by the runner-up at that point, losing 0.41s to Celestial Orbit over the 5th and 6th furlongs before being nudged out in the final furlong. She was an impressive winner of a soft ground Haydock maiden on her debut in September and it would be a mistake to dismiss her entirely on the back of this run, but on the limited evidence that we have from this race, she may be better suited by a less undulating track.
Bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3)
Field of Gold appears to have all of the attributes necessary to be a 2,000 Guineas contender. Settled towards the rear of the field after taking 7.9s to reach 30 mph from the gate, he traveled strongly in Kieran Shoemark’s hands and had the necessary speed, with a top speed of 39.53 mph, to go through the gap when it came. Switched off the stands side rail for a clear run, he was perhaps slightly fortunate that the runner-up, Wimbledon Hawkeye, leaned away from the pro-cush in the penultimate furlong and that drift to his right allowed Field of Gold to have the racing room to run at the line. However, when asked to lengthen he has pulled readily clear, clocking 11.45 and 12.20s for the last 2-furlongs, both of which were the fastest splits in the field, with the latter being over 0.5s quicker than every other runner. Is this performance enough to win a Guineas? That remains to be seen, but if we assume that Wimbledon Hawkeye and Aomori City have run close to their Juvenile form levels, then he certainly deserves his place at the head of the Ante Post markets. The Juddmonte team appear to have a very strong hand with their 3-year-old Colts this season, but the data from this year’s Craven Stakes would suggest that Field of Gold is at the top of that particular pecking order.
Wimbledon Hawkeye has run a very creditable race under Harry Davies and given how keen he was in the early stages from his wide draw, we can perhaps upgrade this performance slightly. With a top speed of 39.57 mph, he was slightly quicker than Field of Gold, but once the winner was asked for his effort in the closing stages, he asserted his dominance and Wimbledon Hawkeye lost 0.97s on him over the final quarter of a mile. The fact that he leaned into the centre of the track may not have helped his cause, but the winner had a considerably faster run-out speed at 34.14 mph and it is hard to make a case for this form being reversed in 3-weeks time.
Aomori City had been very weak in the market prior to the race, but despite racing widest of all, away from what would appear to have been the best ground under the stands rail, he ran a solid race to finish 3rd. He was faster than Wimbledon Hawkeye over each of the last 4-furlongs, which included the fastest 5th furlong in the field (12.02s). Only Field of Gold ran a faster final furlong and a run-out speed of 32.66 mph would offer some hope that there will be more to come next time, but it seems unlikely that he is going to reverse the form with the winner over this trip.
Bet365 EBF Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
Tom Marquand rode an almost identical treble on Thursday’s card and certainly seemed to find the better ground against the far side rail, so whilst this was an exceptional ride from Harry Davies aboard Pellitory, we do need to account for the fact that James Owen’s horse was running on the best part of the track to win this contest. Although he took 9.3s to reach 30 mph, he responded readily to his riders’ urges to run the final 3-furlongs in 11.40, 10.78 and 11.91s, each of which were the fastest individual furlongs in the field. A top speed of 41.85 mph was easily the fastest speed recorded for the 6-runners, adding further credence to the case that the fastest ground was located on the far side rail. A strong early pace from Al Arbeed, who took 15.69s to reach the 1st furlong pole, helped Davies to settle his mount and being at the back of the field in the early stages away from the keen going leaders was no bad thing.
The winner should not be underestimated, but given the fact that he raced down the centre of the course, Anno Domini is perhaps the horse to take from this race for the season ahead. He ran some eye-catching mid-race sectional times in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster on his final start as a 2-year-old and ran a similar race here, when he closed with splits of 10.87 and 11.95s. A run-out speed of 35.32 mph was the best in the field and he may well be ready for a step up in trip at some point in the near future. However, given that he took time to gather his stride at the start and that he raced away from the track bias, this was a highly progressive performance. He holds an entry in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and wouldn’t be without a chance if he takes up that entry at the Curragh next month.
Newcastle
BetMGM Burradon Stakes (Listed Race)
The All-Weather Championships card got underway with a fascinating Listed race for the 3-year-old milers and this contest looks likely to have a significant impact on the season ahead. A winning time of 1:37.66 was the fastest winning time in this race since 2018, helped by Michael Scofield setting fast early fractions with opening furlongs of 15.60 and 11.92s after he flew out of the gates by taking 6.6s to reach 30 mph. He had won both his starts at Southwell this winter, but found both the step up in class and the stiff finish at Newcastle too much for him, although he did help to ensure that this race was a proper test for those in behind. Bowmark is the first horse to note. On just his 2nd career start, he ran a big race for the Gosdens, closing widest of all from the rear of the field to go down by less than a length. Having raced in rear for the opening 3-furlongs, he made his ground around runners, away from the stands side rail which seemed to offer an advantage on the day. He was the fastest horse in the 5th, 6th and 7th furlongs, despite racing on the slower part of the course at that stage and a top speed of 40.76 mph made him the quickest of the 6-runners on the speed gun. He paid for those exertions in the final furlong and wasn’t able to match the winner, who finished his race well with the fastest run-out speed of 35.52 mph, but this was a solid run and he has taken a significant step forward from his Kempton debut.
Whilst I will heap praise on to the runner-up, that shouldn’t detract from an excellent performance by Glittering Legend. Daniel Muscutt took the “brave man’s route”, waiting for the gaps to appear in front of him rather than switching wide, but when those gaps came, Glittering Legend had the speed to go through them with ease. His average stride frequency reached a race peak of 2.35 per second in the penultimate furlong as he eased his way to the front and despite having what could be perceived to be the fastest part of the track to run on, he has leaned into the centre of the course in the closing stages and still asserted in the final 50-yards. He did have a fitness edge on his main rival, having won a Conditions race at Kempton on 29th March and were they to meet again, Bowmark may well improve past him. However, this was a fast time overall, 1.09s quicker than the TPD Standard time for a Listed race over this course and distance and Glittering Legend emerges from this with a lot of credit as a result. James Fanshawe’s post-race interview with Simon Mapletoft for Sky Sports Racing seemed to imply that he thought a step up in trip would suit and with a possible tilt at Royal Ascot on the cards, he is a horse to note for the season ahead given the way he has finished this race.
Chelmsford
Bet365 Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
Sky Majesty came into this race with an official rating of 110, which made her the joint-highest rated 3-year-old running on Friday’s cards, but she could only manage a 3rd placed finish here. On the bare form, this will be seen as a disappointing run given the form that she had shown in Group company in the autumn. However, despite the early battle for the lead, this race was not run at an end-to-end gallop and as a result it suited the 2 horses who raced in front throughout. The winner, Sayidah Dariyan, was ideally placed behind the leader and with a finishing speed of 110%, she was able to use her speed to pass the winner in the final furlong, closing in 10.80 and 10.88s. This was a big step forward from Richard Hughes’ filly, but she was receiving weight from the runner-up and they were able to take a breather after a couple of furlongs, dropping the pace to 12.34 and 12.08s furlongs around the bend. Whilst she displayed an excellent turn-of-foot in the closing stages, clocking a top speed of 41.85 mph, it’s worth noting that her run-out speed (37.78 mph) was surpassed by the horses that finished 3rd, 4th and 5th and her track position may have flattered her performance slightly.
Sky Majesty was never able to get on terms having raced 4-lengths off the early pace and despite the fastest top speed in the race at 41.99 mph, she lost 0.31s on the winner over the final 2-furlongs. She should strip fitter for her first run of the season, but I was slightly disappointed by the way the winner was able to pull away from her in the straight. Jouncy, who finished 5th, is easier to forgive. He ended his 2-year-old campaign with a 5th placed finish in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, 8-lengths behind Shadow of Light and having raced towards the rear of the field on his comeback, he was set a very difficult task. However, he ran 10.89s for the final furlong under a hands ride from Ryan Moore and shaped like a horse that would improve for the benefit of this run and possibly a step up to 7-furlongs next time. The Juddmonte team have a host of talented 3-year-olds for the 2025 season, but despite his 5th placed finish, there is every reason to believe that Jouncy can also play his part at the highest level this season. As a gelding, he will have to tread a different path to the other Juddmonte 3-year-olds, but an official rating of 99 could look very lenient by the end of the year and I have added him to my list of horses to note for the valuable handicaps at Royal Ascot.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.