As we approach the 2025 Kentucky Derby, I have looked through the data collated by Total Performance Data over the last few months to analyse the chances of those at the head of the Ante Post markets.
Journalism (Michael McCarthy)
Already the winner of the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism looks to have a favourites chance. He showed good early speed from the gate in the San Felipe Stakes, taking 6.51s to reach the first furlong pole, but was taken back to sit behind the pace. A top speed of 39.35 mph saw him ranked 4th of the 5 runners, but he was able to assert his dominance in the straight, running 12.20 and 12.42s for the final 2-furlongs, both of which were the fastest splits in the field. He clocked the fastest run-out speed too at 34.14 mph and given the way he finished the race, it is hard to see any reason why either Barnes (2nd) or Rodriguez (3rd) will reverse the form. The main reason that he was able to dominate that race with such authority was his stride length. At an average of 25.30 ft, he was over a foot longer than his 4 rivals and that allowed him to lengthen away from them in the closing stages to win by 2-lengths.
The San Felipe Stakes performance was impressive, but Journalism appeared to improve again when winning the Santa Anita Derby at the start of April. At 41.56 mph, he had the slowest top speed of the 5-runners, but having been caught in a pocket behind the leaders as the field left the back straight, he showed a good turn-of-foot to get himself on terms to run down Baeza in the final furlong. Closing in splits of 12.71, 12.60 and 12.54s, each of which were the fastest furlongs in the field, he was able to use his long stride to run down rivals who enjoyed a much easier passage through the early stages. This was a battling performance that required him to work very hard in the home straight, but he had the highest finishing speed at 96.49% and looks to be one of the strongest stayers in this year’s Derby field.
Sovereignty (William Mott)
The winner of the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old, Sovereignty returned to action at the start of March with a 2-length victory over River Thames in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. That form has already taken a boost when the 4th placed Burnham Square won the Blue Grass Stakes on his next start, but was Sovereignty a fortunate winner? The race had a finishing speed of 92.4% and having been ridden patiently, 6-lengths behind the lead at halfway, he was certainly given every chance to finish strongly when those in front of him began to tire. That assessment is possibly a little harsh given that he had to race 4-wide around the turn to make up his ground and he did finish the race well with the fastest final furlong (12.79s) and the best run-out speed at 33.17 mph. However, this was a clever ride from Junior Alvarado, who allowed his mount to gather his stride in the opening 2-furlongs as the race developed, 0.83s behind the leader at the 2nd furlong pole.
Drawn wide in stall 10 on his latest start in the Florida Derby, Sovereignty once again finished his race well by running the fastest final furlong in 12.42s and clocking the fastest run-out speed in the field at 34.45 mph. However, Tappan Street was able to get the first run on him into the home stretch after obtaining a more prominent position by being 0.41s faster over the opening furlong (having been drawn next to Sovereignty in Gate 9) and Manny Franco wasn’t able to run him down. The Florida Derby had a finishing speed of 96.43s and Tappan Street was quicker than Sovereignty in the 6th, 7th and 8th furlongs which allowed him to gain a significant advantage. The pair were 3-lengths clear of the rest and Sovereignty did finish his race well with the longest average stride (7.35m) in the final furlong. However, at 39.28 mph, his top speed was the slowest of the 10-runners and whilst he will clearly finish his race well, he looks likely to need a pace collapse in front of him to win a Derby.
Luxor Cafe (Noriyuki Hori)
Japanese runners have begun to have a significant influence on Dirt racing. Having already won the UAE Derby in 2025 with Admire Daytona, Luxor Cafe will take his chance for Japan and bid to go 2 places better than Forever Young 12-months ago. A winner of all 4 starts in his native Japan, he arrives in Kentucky on the back of a 5-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama at the end of March. Given a confident ride by Joao Moreira, he recorded a winning time of 1:52.10 despite having to concede weight to the entire field and closing furlongs of 12.20 and 12.0s would suggest that he has the speed required to be competitive. It is very hard to compare his Japanese form to those in the US, but he is a son of American Pharoah and his Dam, Mary’s Follies, was a Grade 2 winner on turf for Richard Dutrow Jr in 2009, so he certainly shouldn’t be overlooked on his first visit to the US.
Sandman (Mark Casse)
One of the more experienced runners in this year’s field with 8 starts already on his CV, Sandman took his form to a new level when winning the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last month. In a race run at a frantic early pace where the leader ran 11.67 and 10.65s furlongs into the first turn, Jose Ortiz took his time and allowed his mount to settle towards the rear, 1.39s slower than the pace setters over the opening quarter of a mile. However, in a race run with a finishing speed of 92.9% the pace inevitably collapsed and that allowed Sandman to come through to win by 3-lengths despite wandering around once he hit the front in the final furlong. With an average stride length of 25.59 ft, he was ideally suited to a strongly run race where he could use his long stride to gain ground around the final turn. His top speed of 40.56 mph was the slowest of the 9 runners in the Arkansas Derby and in a bigger field at Churchill Downs, that would have to be a concern. However, he is another horse who should be doing his best work in the closing stages and if he gets a clear run, he should be closing on the leaders in the stretch, though whether he will have enough time to make up for the ground lost in the opening furlongs is up for debate.
Admire Daytona (Yukihiro Kato)
The winner of the UAE Derby at the end of March, Admire Daytona is another horse to represent the rising stock of Japanese racing. He showed good early speed in Dubai, taking 5.2s to reach 30 mph from the gate and that allowed him to get into a prominent position in the early stages. Held together by Christophe Lemaire, he clung on gamely despite the late lunge from the runner-up, Heart of Honor. He was slower than the 2nd placed horse over each of the last 7-furlongs, finishing with splits of 12.52 and 13.70s at a finishing speed of 103.5%, but he had built up a significant advantage in the early stages and that was enough to see him hang on by a nose. With an average stride length of just 22.83 ft he is a compact horse and whilst that will leave him vulnerable to the stronger staying types in the closing stages, it should at least allow him to use his early speed to get into a prominent position with racing room. The form of the UAE Derby has yet to be tested and with a run-out speed of 30.58 mph, he is likely to need to find some improvement to hold off the American horses in the Derby. However, the data from TPD, which included an impressive top speed of 43.06 mph at Meydan, would look to suggest that he could be one of the pacemakers that the race will form behind.
Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes)
Having done too much too soon in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Burnham Square bounced back to form with an impressive success in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland 3-weeks ago. Given a more patient ride by Brian Jr Hernandez, he was the slowest horse to the 2-furlong pole, taking 24.78s to reach that point.. However, from that point onwards he made good headway, closing in the centre of the track to get the better of East Avenue with final furlongs of 12.74 and 12.90s. In fact, Burnham Square was the fastest horse in 5 of the final 6-furlongs and he recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at 33.67 mph. The runner-up had a much faster top speed at 42.39 mph, the quickest in the field and in reality, he did too much in the early stages under Luan Machado and having set the pace in a race run with a finishing speed of 94.7%, he has done well to hold on for so long. However, the connections of Burnham Square will surely have been pleased to reverse form with River Thames (3rd) and they had clearly learned a lot about him in the Fountain of Youth, when Edgard Zayas made a much earlier move to try and close in the back straight. He was the fastest horse in the 2nd and 3rd furlong that day and had little left in the tank for the home stretch, where his average stride frequency dropped from a race peak of 2.31 per second to 2.15 per second in the penultimate furlong. A more patient ride, which allowed him time to conserve energy and use his long stride, an average of 24.90 ft in the Blue Grass Stakes, clearly suited and that is how I would expect him to be ridden in the Derby. He has work to do to reverse the form with Sovereignty, who was 0.47s faster than him over the final quarter of a mile at Gulfstream, but it is not an insurmountable gap between the pair if the gaps appear at the right time.
Rodriguez (Bob Baffert)
Rodriguez has already been put in his place by Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and given that he was 2.32s slower over the final 2-furlongs, it is hard to see how he will reverse that form. However, the switch to the East Coast did bring about some improvement from him when he landed the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time. Breaking quickly from the gate with opening furlongs of 11.71 and 11.31s, he was able to control the pace before kicking clear off the home turn and running the fastest final furlong in 12.42s. Mike Smith had the ideal draw in stall 1 that day and was perfectly placed to dominate the race, but Rodriguez did display a good attitude in the straight, even if the form of the 2nd and 3rd is not at the same level as those who will contest the Derby. At an average of 23.95 ft, he had one of the shortest strides in the field (ranked 8th of the 10-runners) and as we saw in the San Felipe Stakes, he is vulnerable in the closing stages of his races against stronger staying types. However, he is a good starter and should be able to use his early speed to get into a prominent position, even if he is unlikely to be able to stay there in the stretch.
Baeza (J Shireffs)
It has certainly been an interesting 3-year-old campaign for Baeza, who began 2025 with a 5-length defeat behind Rodriguez in a Santa Anita Maiden Special Weight in early January. He was no match for Rodriguez on that occasion, losing 0.89s on the winner over the final 2-furlongs despite having a better top speed at 41.25 mph. He didn’t need to improve to win a maiden 6-weeks later, but he took his form to an entirely different level when finishing 2nd to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby last time out. He was no match for Journalism in the closing stages, but given that he raced wider around the first turn and was committed for home far sooner than the winner, there are some reasons for optimism from the data that he might get closer next time. Baeza was the fastest horse in the field for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th furlongs and managed a better run-out speed than the winner at 34.2 mph. This was a solid performance from a horse with a considerably shorter average stride length than the winner (Baeza 24.11 ft, Journalism 25.13 ft) and whilst Journalism is likely to confirm this form with a clear run, there is no reason to think that Baeza won’t be able to get closer and finish in the places.
Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert)
After an excellent 2-year-old campaign that culminated with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar in November, Citizen Bull began 2025 as one of the favourites for the Kentucky Derby. Things began well when he gave weight and a 2-length beating to Rodriguez in the Robert B Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in February. He broke well, running 23.31s for the opening couple of furlongs and that allowed him to dominate the pace in front before kicking clear. He clocked 40.24 mph when winning that contest, which included the fastest final 2-furlongs in the field (12.32 and 13.32s). Neither his peak stride length nor his peak stride frequency matched the 24.15 ft and 2.34 strides per second that he recorded at Del Mar in November, which might have suggested that he would improve again on his next start, but the wheels appeared to come off slightly in the Santa Anita Derby.
Having started well with opening furlongs of 11.37 and 11.21s, he was well placed in front and looked to be traveling strongly into the final turn, but he found very little in the closing stages, closing in 27.42s for the final quarter of a mile, 2.28s slower than Journalism at a finishing speed of 92.4%. It could be argued that he paid the price for getting involved in a protracted battle for the lead with Westwood, but at an average of 23.33 ft, his stride length was a long way short of the 24.15 ft that he averaged when winning at the Breeders’ Cup. If we take the view that he may not have run his race, then he could be overlooked in the market, although it will need a significant up turn in his form to have a chance of reversing the form with Journalism and Baeza.
East Avenue (Brendan Walsh)
The winner of his first 2 starts last season, East Avenue disappointed when a beaten favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and things weren’t much better when he finished 10th of 12 in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in February. However, the application of new headgear brought about some significant improvement last time when he chased home Burnham Square in the Blue Grass Stakes. At 42.39 mph, he recorded the fastest top speed in the field and was perhaps a little unlucky not to hold on, having made almost every yard. Driven out of the gate with opening furlongs of 12.03 and 11.11s, Luan Machado was eager to get East Avenue to the front with a race peak average of 2.48 strides per second in the opening stretch. Allowed to take a slight breather with middle furlongs of 12.11 and 12.04s, he did his best to repel the closers and was only headed by Burnham Square in the final strides. If we assume that his connections decide to adopt similar tactics in the Derby, then there is every chance that he could be in front as they head into the first turn. However, the data from the Blue Grass Stakes would suggest that he is unlikely to be able to maintain that pace for long enough to burn off his rivals.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.