Attritional conditions and a strong pace may not have led to a particularly easy spectacle to watch, but with all the cards falling his way, this was a superb performance from Sovereignty. A winning time of 2:02.31 was quicker than Mystik Dan managed on a Fast surface 12-months ago and over a 1.5 seconds quicker than the most recent winners of this race on a “sloppy” surface, Country House (2019, 2:03.93) and Justify (2018, 2:04.20). A finishing speed of 97.1% is testament to the manner with which the winner handled the underfoot conditions, but it is his stamina and not his speed that we need to marvel at. With a top speed recorded at 41.03 mph, Sovereignty would be ranked 17th of the 19 runners, but although he lacked the early tactical speed, he had enough to keep himself in contention and it would be a mistake to consider him as a slower horse. As we can see from the sectional times, he ran the fastest 7th, 8th and 9th furlongs in the field, wearing down Journalism in the closing stages to win by a length and a half. At an average of 24.90 ft, his stride length was shorter than the runner-up (Journalism 25.66 ft), but Sovereignty managed to peak his stride frequency at an average of 2.29 per second and appeared to handle the conditions better than his main rival. He has shown plenty of class and clearly finishes his races well, but is talk of a bid for the Triple Crown perhaps a little far fetched? That’s ultimately for his connections to decide, but there is no doubt from the data that this race setup perfectly for the winner. In drier conditions, with more emphasis on speed, Sovereignty will be vulnerable and there is every chance that the placed horses could reverse this form.
Although ultimately beaten into 2nd place, the data from TPD would suggest that Journalism has run his race. A faster top speed than he managed at Santa Anita last time (42.32 mph) and an average stride length of 25.66 ft (above his expected figure of 25.54 ft) would suggest that he wasn’t as inconvenienced by the sloppy track as it may have first appeared. Clearly, a faster surface would have left Sovereignty vulnerable to a better turn-of-foot in the closing stages, but that may well have come from Baeza or Final Gambit as much as it may have come from Journalism. He was slower than Sovereignty over each of the final 6-furlongs, comments that would also apply if we compared him to the 4th placed Final Gambit. A case could perhaps be made that Umberto Rispoli focussed too heavily on his track position and not the pace of those ahead of him, but that would perhaps be a little harsh and it may simply be that the bigger field did not play to his strengths. He remains a Grade 1 performer, but he finished tired, with a run-out speed (32.59 mph) that was slower than the other horses to hit the frame and I think it will take a monumental turnaround to have him ready for the Preakness Stakes in a few weeks time.
The early pace setters appear to have gone too fast. The likes of Citizen Bull, Admire Daytona and American Promise, who ranked highly over the opening quarter of a mile, faded in the stretch. For that reason, we can perhaps slightly upgrade the performances of Owen Almighty (5th) and East Avenue (8th) who stuck around longer than most having ranked highly in the
opening 2-furlongs. It also wasn’t a great day for Japan. Admire Daytona broke well from the gate, but ultimately finished last and Luxor Cafe could only manage a 12th place finish, despite a top speed of 42.90 mph.
If there is a horse to take from the Derby for next time, it is surely Baeza. Drawn widest and forced to drop in, he was outpaced at a crucial stage when having to weave his way through tiring runners, losing 0.94s on the winner over the 7th, 8th and 9th furlongs. However, he ran the fastest 6th furlong in the race (11.86s) to get into that position and it is the way that he finished the race which drew my attention. A final furlong of 12.47s was the best in the field and run-out speed of 35.50 mph was 2-miles per hour faster than any of the other 18-runners. This was his first race outside of California and it should be noted that he only broke his maiden tag in February before a fine 2nd placed finish behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. He is still learning his craft, but he appears to be improving with every start and should get closer to both Sovereignty and Journalism next time they meet.
I’ll also add a small note to recommend a look at the run of Final Gambit. He made up significant ground from the rear of the field and was faster than both Sovereignty and Journalism in the final furlong. A top speed of 39.73 mph saw him ranked 19th of 19 for the particular metric. However, whilst he was outpaced in the early stages, he stayed on strongly to finish 4th and was one of the few horses to race in rear and make up any late ground. Despite winning his last 2 starts at Turfway Park, the data from TPD shows that he has yet to top 40 mph, which will make things difficult at the highest level. However, allowing for that, he has run exceptionally well to finish 4th and ought to win more races, especially when the leaders go too hard in the early stages.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.