The Chester May meeting can offer us plenty of clues for the Oaks and the Derby at Epsom next month. With that in mind, here’s a summary of the key data from last week’s feature races and what it could mean for the main contender’s chances in the weeks and months ahead.
2:35 Weatherbys ePassport Cheshire Oaks (Listed Race)
Aiden O’Brien has now won this race 9 times in the last 20-years and once the pace lifted, this looked to be a relatively straight forward success for Minnie Hauk under Ryan Moore. She broke well from the stalls, taking 6.2s to reach 30 mph, but the wider draw and the strong early pace kept her wide in the early stages. However, once settled behind the leader she got into a nice rhythm and when asked for her effort, responded readily to close in 12.54, 12.79 and 12.56s furlongs at a top speed of 37.51 mph. An average stride length of 7.32m, made her one of the longer striding Fillies in the field (ranked 3rd), but she was able to stretch at a crucial stage, reaching a race peak average in furlongs 7 and 8. Is this performance enough to suggest that she could win an Oaks at Epsom next month? Possibly, but it is worth noting that she was ideally placed in a race run with a finishing speed of 104% and there is a case to be made that the placed horses finished at least as well as she did.
Secret of Love was far too keen in the early stages and probably paid for that in the closing stages, but she kept on well, running the final half a mile in 50.38s, just 0.04s slower than Minnie Hauk. We also recorded her run-out speed, taken 2-seconds after she crossed the line, at 34.38 mph, the fastest in the field. Her average stride length was 7.55m and that might suggest that the longer straight at Epsom could suit and she shouldn’t be discounted on the back of this effort. Similar comments would also apply to Caspi Star (3rd). She had to be driven into stride, but she has traveled strongly into the closing stages and recorded the fastest top speed in the race at 37.74 mph. Having been further back than ideal, it was a tall ask to close on Minnie Hauk, but she was beaten less than 3-lengths and was the fastest horse over the final quarter of a mile in 25.25s. A winning time of 2:29.15 reads well in comparison to the recent winners of this race on good ground and there is every reason for the connections of the first 3 to cross the line to dream of winning a Classic at Epsom in a few weeks time.
3:05 Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3)
Another race won by Aiden O’Brien and Ballydoyle, this time with Lambourn, who became his trainer’s 11th winner of the Chester Vase. Although the front 3 controlled the pace, this race had a finishing speed of 104% and those behind the pace were simply not good enough, rather than being inconvenienced by the early gallop. At an average stride length of 7.60m, Lambourn had the longest stride in the field and as such he has done remarkably well to show so much speed around the turns at Chester, recording a top speed of 38.81 mph, which included the fastest final furlong in the race at 12.10s. He hit the line well, clocking the best run-out speed in the field at 34.87 mph and there doesn’t seem to be any obvious reason from the data to suggest that this form will be reversed at Epsom. My final point on Lambourn would be to look at his stride frequency, which remained at an average between 2.06 and 2.15 per second throughout the race. He is a relentless galloping type with the ability to lengthen his stride in the latter part of his race, peaking in the 10th furlong in this case and of all the classic contenders that we have seen at Chester this week, he looks to be the most likely horse to be suited by the 12-furlong trip.
Lazy Griff has run a fine race in 2nd and definitely took a big step forward from his earlier form in France. Tracking the leader, he had every chance with 3-furlongs to run but simply lacked the stamina and scope of Lambourn, losing 0.38s to him over the closing stages as his stride got shorter by an average of 0.53m in the final furlong. He is certainly capable of winning another race at this level, but he could benefit from a return to 10-furlongs as the evidence of this race would suggest that he is vulnerable to stronger staying types. Convergent also emerges from this race with a lot of credit. Having taken the leap from Novice company at Redcar straight into a Derby trial, a 3rd placed finish will no doubt delight his connections. He made the running from stall 3 and was the fastest horse to reach 30 mph in 6.0s. He wasn’t able to hold off the stronger stayers, but this was an excellent effort and with further improvement to come, he should win more races this season.
8th May
2:35 Boodles Raindance Dee Stakes (Listed race)
This was a much more impressive performance from Mount Kilimanjaro than winning by a neck might suggest. A winning time of 2:12.89 is 2.92s slower than the TPD expected time for this course and distance on good ground and so despite being driven from the 3-furlong pole, he has shown an excellent turn-of-foot under Ryan Moore to get himself out of trouble. His finishing speed of 103.6% was the best in the field as he dug deep to get his head in front, closing in furlongs of 12.45 and 11.96s, the only horse to run a sub-12s furlong in the race. Aiden O’Brien has won this race 13 times since 2005, so it is no surprise to see the race going to Ballydoyle once again, but the manner of this victory would suggest that Mount Kilimanjaro has more speed than he is being given credit for and it is not impossible to think that he could win again over the 10-furlong trip if stronger Derby candidates were to emerge from his stable. At 25.16 ft, his average stride length was the longest in the field and he was able to lengthen again in the final furlong once he was in full stride. The vast majority of this field look likely to stay around this trip for now and it is hard to make a case for any of the placed horses reversing this form, but this was a good performance from a horse who should be suited by a more galloping track, be that Epsom, Ascot or anywhere else for that matter.
3:05 Ladbrokes Big Value You Can Bet On Ormonde Stakes (Group 3)
Illinois took a more conventional route to victory than his stablemate 30-minutes earlier as he ground out a 7th win in the Ormonde stakes for his trainer. A finishing speed of 102% for the winner confirms the strong pace, which was helped by Al Qareem taking 7.8s to reach 30 mph from the start in a time of 33s to the 2nd furlong pole. That gave Illinois the pace he needed to track and when the gaps came, Ryan Moore was able to drive him forwards into the home straight and that advantage proved too much for the closers. In a 13-furlong race, Illinois was the fastest horse on only 1 occasion (12.90s 7th furlong), but having his mount ideally placed proved the key. This week has largely belonged to Ryan Moore, whose brilliance around Chester should not be underestimated as he soared to a 31.5% career strike rate at the track. Neither Mount Kilimanjaro nor Illinois recorded the best top speed in their races, but both appeared to be perfectly placed to take advantage of the pace setup, testimony to Moore’s unique understanding of the course.
The ground was perhaps slightly faster than ideal for the runner-up Al Qareem, but he had every chance and recorded the fastest final furlong in the race at 13.19s. He had a tendency to lean to his right, away from the rail and may be suited by the return to a more galloping track. Similar comments would apply to Absurde, although he really had every chance without having the ability to get himself on terms with the winner. If there is a horse to take, then it could be Mondo Man for Gary and Josh Moore. He had been far too keen over hurdles in the winter, but ran a much better race here with a patient ride and his closing times, which included finishing furlongs of 12.95 and 13.06s (the quickest final furlong in the race). He had the best top speed figure at 38.18 mph too and whilst he still needs to settle better, this was a significant step in the right direction.
9th May
3:05 – Ladbrokes Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Perhaps unusually for a race of this nature, this wasn’t an end-to-end gallop and a finishing speed of 107% would help to explain why the first 4 horses to cross the line had all been able to race prominently. The overall winning time of East India Dock at 4:05.76 was 4.58s slower than the TPD Expected time for this race on good to firm ground. As a result, there was a clear advantage for those horses that raced close to the pace, including East India Dock, who sat a few lengths behind the leader for most of the contest. The winner did look well treated on a mark of 89 after a very successful season over hurdles at Cheltenham and to be fair to him, he found the necessary speed with closing furlongs of 12.32 and 12.12s. The work that James Owen had reportedly done at home to get him used to the stalls once again had clearly worked as he broke well, taking 5.8s to reach 30 mph and get that all-important early position. Although he hit a flat spot with 4-furlongs to run, he responded to his riders’ encouragement and once in front of Caballo de Mar in the home straight, he galloped away. The handicapper is going to have a say, but he should still be on a competitive mark if his connections decide to stay in handicaps and there are plenty of options open to him, most notably at Royal Ascot.
The 4-year-olds dominated this race and although his 5-race winning streak has now come to an end, Caballo de Mar emerges from the Chester Cup with a lot of credit. At an average of 24.11 ft, he had a longer average stride than East India Dock and looked to be going best of all when the field turned for home. Ultimately he was outstayed by a horse who was potentially very well handicapped, losing 0.41s on the winner over the final furlong once he had been headed. However, he was the fastest horse in the penultimate furlong, recording a time of 12.18s and at 38.41 mph, his top speed matched the 38.39 mph recorded by East India Dock. He has climbed 24lbs in the handicap since he began his winning streak back in September and may still have more to come now that he has translated his all-weather form back to the turf.
Last year’s winner, Zoffee, has run another fine race, although with closing sectionals of 12.42 and 12.51s, he didn’t have the speed needed at the end of the contest this time around. Leinster has also run a good race, especially when we allow for the fact that he was so keen in Ryan Moore’s hands. However, they both raced prominently and there were certainly some more eye-catching runs from those who came from the rear of the field.
Top of the “eye-catchers” list would have to be Who’s Glen, trained by Andrew Balding. Having raced towards the rear of the field, he has made up a lot of ground in the closing stages and recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at 35.32 mph. He was simply too far behind the leaders to play an effective part in the finish, but the handicapper should leave him alone and he is clearly in top form based on that run-out speed. With a stronger gallop or a more aggressive ride, he should be capable of winning a race of this nature later in the season. To a lesser extent, I will also give an honourable mention to the 8th placed Bashful Boy, who was last of the main group when they entered the home straight, but who finished to good effect with a run-out speed of 33.8 mph.
My final point on this year’s Chester Cup would be the importance of the riding weights. The top weight, Chemistry, was a non-runner and the next in, Dawn Rising, didn’t travel a yard and was heavily eased in the closing stages. However, their presence created a large spread in the handicap and as a result the first 9 horses to cross the line were carrying less than 9-0. The 10th placed Divine Comedy, carrying 9-4, had every chance and shouldn’t be assumed to have been handicapped out of things. However, it is a valid point and worth noting if some of the form horses have more weight to carry in a tighter handicap next time.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.