The fact that this race is being run at Saratoga and more importantly over 10-furlongs rather than 12 must give Journalism the edge. The big field and the sloppy track at Churchill Downs all played into the hands of Sovereignty, who is stamina laden according to the data and in a small field, where the pace seems less likely to collapse in front of him, he is surely vulnerable to genuine speed. Journalism clocked a top speed of 42.32 mph in the Kentucky Derby. To add some context to that figure and the task that he faces, Sovereignty has never run that fast according to the data we hold at TPD. His top speed of 41.03 mph in the Kentucky Derby was ranked 17th of the 19-runner field and if this race develops into a sprint, all of the evidence that we have so far would suggest that he will struggle to stay with his faster rival. There is hope for Sovereignty backers. The fastest top speed that we have recorded for him so far is 42.10 mph, which he recorded at Saratoga in August over what proved to be an inadequate 6-furlong trip. He has the better of the draw in stall 2, but it seems unlikely that he will lead given that his opening furlong of 16.94s saw him ranked 16th in Kentucky. He ran down Journalism in the closing stages at Churchill Downs and with a run-out speed of 33.24 mph, he will almost certainly be doing his best work at the finish, but the better question is whether he will be able to find the necessary speed to keep himself in contention earlier in the race.
Journalism has a very different set of challenges to overcome. Firstly, he raced 3-weeks ago in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico and whilst he has clearly been trained for the Triple Crown races, it will still be a 3rd run in Grade 1 company in the space of 5-weeks. We can’t measure the effect that those races have had on him and we won’t know the answer to that question until he leaves the stalls on Saturday. However, what we can say is that he reached an exceptional level of form to win the Preakness from a very difficult racing position. A final furlong of 12.22s with a run-out speed of 35.68 mph were the clear best in the field and he demonstrated all of his class to run down Gosger, taking 0.9s out of his rival in the final furlong. At 25.66 ft, he had a longer average stride length than Sovereignty in the Derby (24.90 ft) and he reached an average of 25.92 ft at Pimlico on a good track. Unless there is significant rainfall at Saratoga, we can expect him to record a higher average stride length again, which will add more difficulty to the task facing Sovereignty. I don’t want this piece to feel like I am criticising Sovereignty in any way. He is a Kentucky Derby winner who ran past a subsequent Preakness Stakes winner to get his place in the history books. There was no fluke about that performance, but a sloppy track and a race finishing speed of 94% definitely aided his cause that day. A similar setup in a much smaller field seems far less likely. The data we have would suggest that Journalism is the quicker horse and in a race where speed will prove to be more important, that should be key. Does all of this mean that Journalism will win the Belmont Stakes?
The answer to that question is not necessarily. The horse who ran the fastest final furlong in the Kentucky Derby wasn’t Sovereignty, nor was it Journalism, it was Baeza. That closing time of 12.47s was a clear best in the field and a run-out speed of 35.5 mph was 2 mph faster than either of the “Big 2”. He was behind Journalism at Santa Anita in March, but he recorded the fastest run-out speed in that race too (34.20 mph) and there’s an extra furlong here to help him close. Being drawn widest of all in gate 21 did not help his chances in the Kentucky Derby and he should be much better suited by the smaller field here. Drawn inside Journalism, it seems likely that they will race alongside each other this time and the data would offer some hope that he can at least get closer than he did in Kentucky after a troubled run through.
We also have to consider a new form line that comes into the mix on Saturday evening. Crudo has won his last 2 starts and although this is a huge step up in class from the Spendthrift Farm Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico 3-weeks ago, he was 7-lengths clear of the rest and looks worth a try in this company as a result. He recorded a top speed of 42.32 mph that day with a performance that included the fastest final 2-furlongs in the field and a run-out speed of 33.06 mph. Can he cope with such a big rise in class? It’s probably a stretch to think that he could win the Belmont Stakes, but he does at least have the data to suggest that he will have the speed to be in contention when they turn for home.