Does Calandagan deserve to win a Group 1 race? Yes. That’s the simple answer. Calandagan has shown an exceptionally high level of form in the last 12-months and the only thing that is missing from his CV is a Group 1 victory. As a 3-year-old gelding, his options were limited in the first half of last season, but his performances in the Juddmonte International at York and in the Champion Stakes at Ascot were more than enough to win a Group 1 race in most years. At York, he closed in furlongs of 10.75, 11.01 and 11.68s, which was 0.47s faster than the winner, City of Troy. At Ascot he produced a faster top speed than Amnaat at 40.80 mph and at Meydan in March, he finished with furlongs of 10.83, 10.47 and 10.98s at a top speed of 43.40 mph. Those sectional times would be enough to win the average Group 1 sprint race, let alone at the end of a 12-furlong contest run behind a horse of the calibre of Danon Decile. He had the longest average stride length on both starts at Ascot last season, reaching a peak average of 25.23 ft when winning the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot by 6-lengths under Stephane Pasquier. He’s fast, he stays well, he’s ground versatile, he can be ridden in different ways, he has everything that could be asked for to be a Group 1 performer. However, Calandagan’s issues have never come at the end of his races, it’s always been the start which has held him back.
Let’s take the start at Meydan in the Dubai Sheema Classic as an example. He took 6.6s to reach 30 mph from the stalls. The best in the field was Rebel’s Romance in 5.4s. A difference of 1.2s is not disastrous, especially against that calibre of rival, but an opening furlong of 15.75s, ranked 6th, was 1.02s slower than Shin Emperor, the fastest in the field at 14.73s. At Ascot in October, he took 6.2s to reach 30 mph and ran 14.03s for the opening furlong, ranked 7th. Even when winning at Royal Ascot last summer, his opening furlong of 14.39s was ranked 15th of 16. At first I thought that he might have an issue with the stalls, but a closer examination of the replays hasn’t shown anything to suggest that’s the case. I’d also argue that this isn’t a deliberate tactic, especially given Stephane Pasquier’s body language in the opening furlong of the Champion Stakes. It’s possible that he’s just slightly lazy leaving the stalls. He makes up for it in the closing stages, but it will create a difficult conundrum for Mickael Barzalona at Epsom on Friday.
If he is slow to leave the stalls again, does he try to make up the ground on the climb to the top of the hill, or does he let the others go, allow Calandagan to gather stride and take the view that he is on the fastest horse in the race and will be able to pick them off in the latter stages of the Coronation Cup? Giving any horse a head start in a Group 1 race has risks attached, but this is such a good opportunity for him to win that first Group 1, that riding him to finish the race is surely the more likely choice. He will handle the track, there’s no reason at all to think that he won’t and if pulled out for a run down the centre of the course, he should have too much speed for this field. As long as he can be kept within a reasonable distance of the lead, this should be his time. At a meeting that means so much to the Aga Khan connections, he would be a fitting winner of the Coronation Cup, but the data suggests it may not be the straight forward success that the market price might suggest.