The Prince of Wales’s Stakes was won by the slowest horse. That’s a very simplistic view of the data, but if we rank the horses based on the top speed that they recorded, the 3 slowest horses finished 1st, 2nd and 4th. That’s not meant as any kind of slight on Ombudsman, who was by far the best horse on the day and who has recorded the fastest winning time in this race since The Fugue in 2014, also ridden by William Buick for John Gosden. We probably don’t need sectional times to tell us that the Ballydoyle pair in front went too hard, with Los Angeles recording a top speed of 42.59 mph. For context, that was faster than the earlier winners on the card, True Love (41.96 mph) and Crimson Advocate (39.80 mph) who ran over shorter distances. Continuous is on his way down the ranks and the one time St Leger winner has been largely used as a pacemaker for his stablemates in recent times, but whilst he did his job once again, running opening furlongs of 13.24, 11.04 and 12.22s was too fast. It’s no coincidence that the 4 horses held up away from that strong early gallop were the first 4 horses to cross the line. Continuous got to the 4-furlong pole in 47.72s, Ombudsman took 50.08s to reach the same point. 

Jim Crowley must have thought that he had won the race as he pulled his mount out for a run in the home straight. Having travelled strongly into the closing stages, Amnaat reached his race peak stride frequency in the penultimate furlong, recording an average of 2.36 per second as he ran the fastest 9th furlong in the race at 11.91s. For a very brief moment, Anmaat looked to be away as Ombudsman was forced to switch behind him, but the final furlong saw that average stride frequency drop to 2.28 per second and once headed, his race was over. 

Ombudsman came into this race with 4 wins from 5 starts and the form of his 2nd place finish behind Almaqam in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown looked strong, but there is still no doubt that he took a significant step forwards to win this first try in Group 1 company. In a race won with a winning time that was 1.76s below the TPD expected time, it’s not a surprise that a horse given a patient ride came out on top. However, that would be an unfair generalisation to apply to Ombudsman, who ran the fastest individual split in 3 of the last 5 furlongs despite having to switch in the closing stages when the gap didn’t appear in front of him. Once in the clear, he has maintained an average stride length of 7.11m in the final 2-furlongs, quickening to run the fastest final furlong in the race (11.82s) and recording the fastest run-out speed in the field at 36.33 mph. The path ahead seems likely to lead to a clash with his stablemate Field of Gold, whether that comes in the Eclipse at Sandown or the Juddmonte International at York. 

It would be simplistic to forgive the others, but the likes of Royal Champion and Los Angeles were simply too close to the pace and it seems likely that drawing a line through this run will be the best course of action. See the Fire took another step forward after demolishing the field at York. She perhaps came up slightly short of the boys, but it’s really only in the final furlong that she loses significant ground, finishing in 12.57s, 0.75s slower than the winner. Back in Fillies only company, she will be hard to beat. Map of Stars had every chance and there is the possibility that he has simply bumped into a 120+ horse, as he did when chasing home Sosie in the Prix D’Ispahan. He ran the fastest 8th furlong in 11.80s, but ultimately couldn’t sustain his effort and whilst he is a solid horse at this level, he may continue to pick up prize money without adding a Group 1 victory to his CV.