Chester Preview 11th & 12th July
Chester racecourse hosts a 2-day meeting this weekend. It’s a very competitive couple of days racing, but here are some horses on Friday and Saturday who stand out from the TPD data.
Friday evening’s card gets underway at 5:55 with what could arguably be described as the best Nursery handicap to be run so far this season. There are only 5 runners going to post, but 3 of them have already won races and a case can certainly be made for the other 2. Sir Albert showed bright early speed to win at Newcastle last time, taking 6.2s to reach 30 mph and with a peak average stride frequency of 2.53 per second, the best in the race, he looks likely to be the pace angle in this contest. A mark of 80 looks reasonably fair for this handicap debut, but he has weight to concede here and there is perhaps a case to argue that he is more likely to set the race up for one of his rivals rather than making every yard of the running. Champion Island won a 3-runner race at Chelmsford and he was the fastest horse in each of the last 5-furlongs, but that looked to be a reasonably weak race on paper and this is certainly a much tougher assignment. Steel Drum is the more obvious type to improve on his handicap debut. He has run 3 solid races in Novice company and his 2nd placed finish at Kempton last time was a step in the right direction as he chased home the well placed Magnatura. Drawn in stall 5, he should track the pace under Georgia Dobie and having recorded a run-out speed of 35.37 mph, he should be capable of making a challenge when the field turn for home.
The Seat Unique Handicap at 6:55 looks to be a very competitive handicap but White Crown Star is going to win a race this season and from a good draw in stall 7, this might be the time to be with him. He has been slightly frustrating so far this season, finishing 3rd on each of his last 3 starts. However, he ran the fastest opening furlong at both York and Newmarket and recorded a top speed of 40.91 mph when 3rd at Lingfield last time. That early speed should help Jason Watson to get him into a handy position from the stalls and his final furlong of 11.84s at Lingfield was faster than the winner, Dubai Treasure. At a peak average of 25.29 ft, White Crown Star had the longest stride in the field at Lingfield and the extra 140-yards here should help, especially in a race that looks likely to be run at a strong pace.
The Moxy Hotels Chester Handicap at 7:55 looks equally competitive. Patagonia Girl has won her las 2 starts, including a win over this course and distance a fortnight ago. That was an impressive win and she did run the fastest final 2-furlongs in 12.72 and 11.81s, but she was well placed to win a race where the leaders went too fast in the early stages and the runner-up, Lady Chartwell, recorded a better run-out speed at 36.19 mph. A rise of 5 lbs in the weights in what looks to be a deeper race could make things tougher and there is certainly a case to be made that the handicap debutante, Love Beach, has stronger claims. He was a winner at Haydock last time when he got the better of Mister Winston in a battling finish. The pair pulled 5-lengths clear of the remainder of the field and Love Beach ran the fastest individual split for each of the last 3-furlongs. An opening handicap mark of 86 looks very reasonable, with this 10-furlong trip likely to bring out further improvement.
Saturday’s card gets underway at 4:20 with the Matthew Clark Handicap. The pair of recent winners at the top of the weights look to be the ones to concentrate on here. L’Eagle Aid stayed on strongly to win a handicap on the Tapeta at Newcastle at the end of June, where he ran the fastest final furlong and recorded a run-out speed of 32.08 mph (ranked 1st). That run definitely marked a return to form for Charlie Johnston’s 4-year-old, but all of his best form has come on the All-Weather and with weight to concede he may well be vulnerable here. Moon Angel makes more appeal. She was a winner on her first start for Stuart Williams when staying on strongly to run the fastest individual furlong in each of the last 3 splits at Salisbury 4-weeks ago. That form has already taken a boost when the 5th placed Shady Bay won at Nottingham last week and a rise of 5 lbs shouldn’t be enough to stop her following up.
At 5:30 we have the Listed feature race, the Raymond and Kathleen Corbett Memorial City Plate Stakes over 7-furlongs. Excellent Believe is the most interesting runner. He has won 2 of his 3 starts to date and arrives here on the back of a comfortable success under a penalty in a Newcastle novice where he recorded a top speed of 39.93 mph. He’s open to any amount of improvement for Jack Channon, but this is a significant step up in class for such an inexperienced horse and he has a lot of improvement to find if he is to get the better of our selection Holguin. He was last seen finishing 3rd behind Never So Brave in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. The strength of that form will be tested earlier in the day when the winner runs in the Summer Mile at Ascot, but although Holguin was no match for him at Ascot, the fact that the winner now steps into Group 2 company could make Holguin very interesting in this grade. His run-out speed was ranked 4th of 32 in the Buckingham Palace and he actually recorded a faster top speed than the winner at 41.25 mph. He finished 3rd behind Never So Brave in a handicap here in May, so we know that he will handle the track and if he runs to his official rating of 100, it may well be enough to win this £34,026 prize.
The card ends with the Absolute Vodka Apprentice handicap at 7:10 over the extended 1-mile and 6-furlongs. Both Polling Day and Tailorman were good winners on their latest starts, but this race revolves around the Sir Mark Prescott trained Whatsgoingonmarvin. The stable has a very tried and tested method with their middle distance 3-year-olds and it was no surprise to see this son of Camelot find significant improvement on his handicap debut at Ayr earlier in the week. That race came over 5-furlongs further than he had previously encountered and he ran out a relatively comfortable winner after making every yard of the running. A run-out speed of 31.56 mph would suggest that he had more left in the tank if needed and with Poppy Scott taking off 7 lbs, he is able to run off the same mark on Saturday evening. If we assume that there is further improvement to come, he should have too much in hand for his 5 rivals with just 8-13 on his back.