Racing League Week 4 Preview
Windsor
The Racing League 2025 moves on to Windsor for night 4 this week, with Team East leading the way at the halfway stage by 16 points. This week gets underway with a 5-furlong handicap at 5:00. That race looked very competitive with cases to be made for runners from all of the teams and it looked to be a very difficult puzzle. I have left that race but found 4 other horses to watch out for from the TPD data this week.
In the mile handicap at 6:00 we have a pair of horses that are going in search of a hat-trick. Kodi Fire was a winner at Salisbury last time, but he was sent forwards at the right time in a race that developed into a sprint finish with a finishing speed of 108%. His final furlong ranked 3rd of 5 and in what looks to be a much deeper contest, I would rather support Nakaaha. She has won 2 of her 3 starts since switching to Grace Harris and arrives here on the back of a very comfortable success at Ffos Las, where she traveled strongly into the contest before going away in the closing stages to win by over 3-lengths. She ran the fastest time in each of the final 4-furlongs, pulling clear under a very relaxed ride from David Egan and the winning time of 1:39.73 was 1.94s faster than the TPD expected time for the grade. Her Dam reached a peak rating of 93 and she is able to run here off a mark of 76, 4 lbs ahead of her new mark of 80, which leaves a lot of things in her favour. Having recorded the highest peak average stride figure in the Ffos Las race (2.38 per second), she should have more than enough tactical speed for this big field and she rates as one of the best chances on the night for the Wales & West team.
In the 6-furlong contest at 6:30 we have one of the least exposed runners on the night, Huscal. We haven’t seen Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Colt since last September and although he showed a consistent level of form as a juvenile, he split a pair of horses that are now rated in the mid-80s on his latest start at Newbury, so it’s hard to argue that his current mark of 84 is a gift and he can only be watched after a 300+ day break. Both Huscal and King of Light ran the fastest final furlong on their latest starts, but my preference is definitely for the latter. Huscal finished 2nd at Doncaster at the start of the month, where he recorded both the highest top speed figure (41.29 mph) and run-out speed (36.51 mph) in the field. However, that came over 7-furlongs and he struggled for pace on his previous start over 6-furlongs at Epsom. King of Light was an eye-catching 2nd at last week’s Racing League fixture at Chepstow, where he made a lot of ground from the rear to chase home Roberto Caro. The winner made all on a night where it favoured horses that raced prominently and King of Light ran faster times for each of the final 3-furlongs. He’s turned out quickly and is 2 lbs “well in” with his new mark. Last week’s effort was his first start for Stuart Williams, but the step up in trip to 6-furlongs seemed to be the key and given that he is turned out so quickly, he is clearly thought capable of his current mark and will hopefully gain compensation for last week’s narrow defeat for the East Team.
The 8:00 contest over 1-mile and 3-furlongs looks to be a great opportunity for Ammes to win his first handicap for James Owen and Team Scotland. He has run some fine races in defeat at both Royal Ascot and Goodwood and comes into this race on the back of an excellent performance when narrowly beaten by Push the Limit. Ammes ran the fastest final 2-furlongs in 12.05 and 12.89s at Goodwood and should be suited by this flatter track where he can use that late speed to his advantage. He makes more appeal than Night Breeze, who was the beneficiary of an excellent ride when winning at Ascot in the Shergar Cup at the weekend, although he certainly wasn’t winning out of turn. However, he was well placed in a race with a finishing speed of 109% and from 1 lb wrong at the weights, he may struggle to give 10 lbs to Ammes, even though it should be noted that he won this race last season. In the unlikely event that there is a lot of rain, it would bring Miller Spirit into things after he finishes so strongly at Yarmouth on night 1, but his form does confirm that he needs soft ground to be seen at his best.
The night ends at 8:00 with a 10-furlong handicap that features a couple of horses who have already won races in this year’s Racing League. Mr Swivell made all to win at Wolverhampton on night 2, but that win came over a mile on a track that favoured front runners, so he isn’t certain to back it up. Silent Age also made every yard to win at Wolverhampton, but the data from the closing stages would suggest that Londoner was an unlucky loser and he looks to make more appeal as an each-way alternative against the 2 previous winners who may not be able to dominate this race in the same manner. Londoner made good ground from the rear at Wolverhampton, recording the fastest final 2-furlongs in the race, 0.87s quicker than Silent Age over the final quarter of a mile and galloped through the line with a run-out speed of 35.77 mph (ranked 1st). He is 0-16 on turf, which is a slight concern, but he has finished 2nd on the turf at both Lingfield and Ascot this year and showed enough on both occasions to suggest that he has no issues running on the grass. Nicola Currie should be able to keep him in a relatively handy position from stall 1 and he looks to be one of the best chances on the night for the London & the South team.