Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales (G1)
Preview
There are 6-runners going to post for the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday evening, but the field can be relatively easily split into 2 groups. Queen Azteca was the winner of the UAE Oaks at Meydan in February, but she was easily beaten in the UAE Derby a month later where she ranked 7th for her top speed and struggled to get involved from off the pace. That was a difficult task against the Colts and she did finish her race well, with a final furlong of 13.67s (ranked 2nd), but having been off the track for 133-days and having had to travel to the US for the first time, it’s hard to make a strong case for her. Kinzie Queen ran well in the Delaware Oaks behind Fondly in June, but she only has a pair of Claiming wins on her CV and she seems unlikely to find the improvement necessary at this level. She’s very closely matched with Margie’s Intention, who won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico in May and Kinzie Queen did have the better run-out speed despite finishing 3rd, but neither of them have shown any signs of being Grade 1 winners in waiting.
It will be a shock result if any of those 3 horses win, but now we can move on to the second half of the field, starting with the likely pace angle, La Cara. She made every yard to win the DK Horse Acorn Stakes at Saratoga in June, breaking quickly from stall 3 with an opening furlong of 11.85s (ranked 1st). In fact, she was the fastest horse in 5 of the 9-furlongs on that occasion and seemed to handle the sloppy track much better than Good Cheer, who we will come to in a moment. This year was just the 2nd running of the race since it was increased to 9-furlongs in 2024 so we don’t have the opportunity to make a significant time comparison, but a winning time of 1:49.20 on a sloppy track was just 0.18s slower than Thorpedo Anna in 2024. At an average of 23.95 ft, her stride was shorter than the race average and she ranked 4th for top speed (40.53 mph), which would suggest that being able to use her early speed on a sloppy track was the key to her victory. She’s drawn in stall 6 this time and whilst her early speed should still be enough to get her to the front, she could be vulnerable to stronger stayers over this 10-furlong trip.
Nitrogen seems likely to track the pace set by La Cara. Her best form has come on the turf and I’m not sure that we can read too much into her victory on the dirt in the Wonder Again Stakes (G2) here in June, where the switch to the Dirt track meant only 3-runners lined up. She was sent off as a 4/9 favourite and had the race run with 2-furlongs to go, but with an average stride length of 25.13 ft, she did match the stride data that she subsequently showed on the turf in the Belmont Oaks and that would offer some hope that she will be able to translate her turf form to the dirt. She was slightly unlucky to finish 2nd to Fionn in the Belmont Oaks, where she worked hard to get past the long time leader (Opulent Restraint) with the fastest 7th and 8th furlongs in the race, only to be caught in the final strides by the fast-finishing winner. A run-out speed of 36.22 mph ranked 4th and she was well placed, which could make things more difficult in what seems likely to be a stronger test of stamina and that must be a concern. She should be able to get the better of La Cara if Jose Ortiz can get her to track the pace, but whether she will really stay this 10-furlong trip on the dirt is yet to be confirmed.
Good Cheer was behind La Cara last time, but there was a valid excuse on a sloppy surface. She raced towards the rear of the 6-runner field and had to race wide around the turn to pass the tiring Quickick which left her with a lot to do as she lost momentum at a crucial stage. She ran the fastest split times in furlongs 4 and 5 and was quicker than La Cara in the final furlong, albeit when the race was well beyond her. However, if we draw a line through that performance, which was her first defeat in 8 starts, and judge her on her earlier form, she seems to be the most likely winner of this contest. She recorded the longest average stride length when winning the Kentucky Oaks in May (25.07 ft) and she should be able to use that long stride to close on the leaders when the pace lifts around the home turn. Prior to that first defeat, Good Cheer had ranked in the top 2 for both her final furlong times and her run-out speed on each of her 3 previous starts (either side of a winter break) and she had the longest average stride length in the field in the final furlong of the Kentucky Oaks. All of the data would suggest that she is the strongest stayer in this field and if we forgive her latest run for the reasons given, she should prove to be a class apart in this field.