There are two ways to read the Meydan form. One is to compare Danon Decile with Durezza, who finished three lengths behind him in Dubai. Durezza gives us the first York link, having run fifth in the Juddmonte International last year, beaten 10 lengths. On that line, Danon Decile has ground to make up — but there are reasons why Durezza got closer in Dubai.

The Sheema Classic’s finishing speed of 108.9% suggests a steady early tempo, reinforced by Danon Decile’s winning time of 2:27.05 being slower than the previous four renewals. Durezza raced prominently and had first run into the straight, but over the final three furlongs Danon Decile was 0.6s faster and posted a higher run-out speed (60.9km/h). Coming from further back in a steadily run race, he showed he’s clearly the better horse.

Instead, we can make a much better comparison between Danon Decile and Calandagan from the TPD database. Francis-Henri Graffard’s star was 2nd in the Juddmonte International behind City of Troy last season, but having been 0.55s quicker than the winner over the final 4-furlongs, making up the best part of 8-lengths in the straight, with the highest top speed figure (68.0km/h), he was perhaps an unlucky loser who ran to a standard that would have been enough to win most renewals. Without City of Troy, Calandagan would be in the history books as the fastest winner of the Juddmonte International at York racecourse. On that basis, the fact that Danon Decile was able to hold him off with relative ease in Dubai must bode well for his chances on Wednesday. 

Danon Decile closed in furlong splits of 10.93, 10.51 and 11.06s to win by a length and a quarter. I need to add a small caveat to acknowledge that Calandagan was 0.22s faster over the same section of the race (10.83, 10.47 and 10.98s) after getting slightly squeezed for room, but the French horse has an exceptional turn-of-foot in the closing stages and the times run by Danon Decile should not be underestimated as a result. 

To put some context into those closing splits, despite getting the first run, Rebel’s Romance was 1.02s slower than Danon Decile in the straight at Meydan. Given everything that Rebel’s Romance has achieved around the world, that statistic alone must offer some hope to Shogo Yasuda and Keita Tosaki. At an average of 7.80m, Danon Decile had a longer stride than Calandagan (7.77m), reaching his race peak in the penultimate furlong when he was asked to stretch. Danon Decile was able to maintain a longer stride and a higher peak average stride frequency (2.33 per second). If we make the fair assumption that Calandagan’s form last year was good enough to win most Juddmonte Internationals, then Danon Decile beating him in Dubai suggests that, at his best, he should go close here. On the numbers, he’s the best horse Japan has sent to the UK, and we can’t wait to see him on the Knavesmire on Wednesday.