Racing League Week 5 Preview

Newcastle

We are back on the tapeta for the 5th night of the Racing League on Thursday as a 7 race card gets underway at Newcastle with a 2-mile handicap at 5:45. We have no less than 5 last time out winners in this field which looks like being one of the strongest races run in the Racing League this year. The race will almost certainly revolve around the Sir Mark Prescott trained Synergism. He has won 3 of his 5 starts on an artificial surface and like so many of his stablemates, he has improved significantly for the step up in trip this summer. He arrives here on the back of a 2-length success at Kempton, but at the time of writing he is as short as 6/4 and given that the runner-up was faster than he was over the last 2-furlongs at Kempton on a surface that has been favouring front runners, I have enough doubts over that form to let him go, even if he does appear to be the most likely winner for the East Team. There are plenty of dangers, not least Captain Potter for the North team, who hit the line strongly with closing furlongs 13.67 and 14.62s when winning at Pontefract last time. Similar comments would also apply to Chillhi, who finished strongly when winning at Beverley. 

The market for the 12-furlong handicap at 6:15 looks to revolve around the unexposed Gran Descans. He has won 2 of his 3 starts for Harry Charlton and makes his handicap debut on a mark of 88. He was a comfortable winner under a penalty at Lingfield last time and although that form has yet to be tested, he galloped on through the line and recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field (33.8 mph). He’s a Juddmonte bred half-brother to several winners who reached ratings of 100+, so there is every chance that he may well be considerably better than his opening mark, but his form doesn’t prove it so I would rather back each-way against him and take my medicine if Gran Descans outclasses this field.

Data for Circus of Rome, a recent winner at Newbury

Circus of Rome appeals most. He recorded the fastest top speed in the field when winning at Newbury last time out, quickening well despite not looking the most straight forward ride in the closing stages. We haven’t seen him in the interim 70-day period, but he had 3 subsequent winners behind him that day at Newbury in June and so a rise of 6 lbs does look workable. Once in the clear, he finished strongly with the fastest final 2-furlongs and there are no concerns about the change of surface given that he has already won on the tapeta at Wolverhampton earlier in the year. The fact that he has won a race in handicap company could be the key in a competitive race like this and having recorded a peak average stride length of 25.21 ft last time, he should be perfectly suited by the stiff finish at Newcastle.

We don’t see too many horses with official ratings of 110 running in handicaps, but that is just what Al Shabab Storm will do when he lines up for Team Yorkshire in the 7-furlong handicap at 7:15. He finished 3rd in the Racing League behind Stormy Impact at Wolverhampton over 6-furlongs (from a mark of 109 I might add). That effort came on the back of a 126-day break and he made good late headway from mid-division, running the fastest final furlong in 11.61s and recording the best run-out speed in the field at 37.13 mph. It’s never an easy task to concede so much weight, but Jack Nicholls takes off a useful 5 lbs here and this time last year he was winning a Group 3 at Baden Baden in Germany. He is a group horse, running in a handicap, and with the step up to 7-furlongs likely to suit, he looks to be a decent value bet to outclass this field despite the weight he carries.

I couldn’t find an angle into either of the sprint handicaps but I do like the chances of Tremolo in the mile handicap at 8:15. He was a winner at Southwell when we last saw him in July as he made ground down the centre of the course to get his head in front in the final 50-yards. The 3 horses to follow him home at Southwell all finished 2nd on their next starts to confirm the strength of the form and having already won 3 times on an artificial surface, there should be no concerns about the move to Newcastle for his next appearance. His run-out speed of 35.21 mph at Southwell was 1.61 mph faster than the next best and a 3 lb rise may not be enough to stop his improvement for the Wales and West team.