DEl mar
Pacific Classic Preview
In a parallel universe somewhere, where Sovereignty isn’t on the scene, Journalism is being hailed as one of the greatest 3-year-olds of the century. With the exception of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, Journalism has been unbeatable this season and he will bid to test his credentials against the older horses for the first time in Saturday’s Pacific Classic at Del Mar. He has already bounced back from his defeat in the Belmont Stakes by winning the Haskell at Monmouth Park in July. That was a relatively workmanlike performance, but he finished strongly when he needed to, running the fastest final furlong in 12.22s to ultimately win going away with the best run-out speed in the field (35.19 mph). He’s confirmed form with Gosger and proven himself to be the clear 2nd best of this year’s 3-year-old crop, so this has always looked like a natural next step for him when allowing for the fact that his connections were likely to want to avoid Sovereignty in the Travers Stakes. His only defeat in California came over an inadequate 6-furlongs on his debut at Santa Anita and the evidence of his most recent run would suggest that the return to 10-furlongs is going to be in his favour on Saturday evening.
At a peak average of 25.85 ft, he had the longest stride in the field for the Haskell Stakes (next best National Law 25.75 ft) and much like Sovereignty last weekend, there is perhaps a sense that he will be open to more improvement when he races against better horses. He was able to lengthen his stride on 2 occasions in the Haskell Stakes, once at the end of the back straight when he reached a race peak of 8.11m and then again into the final furlong when being asked for everything to run down the leader. It would be wrong to say that he was idling in the early stages of that race, but there is a definite trend from the closing sectional data to suggest that he found more when Umberto Rispoli had to become more serious in the saddle. Whilst paying due respect to Gosger and Goal Oriented, I think it is fair to say that Fierceness and Nysos are a class above the opposition that Journalism faced at Monmouth Park. They have certainly achieved a lot more and it will be interesting to see if they both run their race, what level that may take Journalism to.
It’s easy to forget that 12-months ago, Fierceness was at the top of the 3-year-old tree. He had just dispatched Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy and backed that up by beating Thorpedo Anna in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. He was a beaten favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Sierra Leone, but the strong early pace played into the hands of Chad Brown’s horse, who was able to use his long stride to gallop his rival into submission. Fierceness ran a fine race in 2nd and he ran a time of 2:01.08, which would have been enough to win 4 of the last 10 renewals of the Classic, he simply met a better and stronger stayer on the day. The 2024 version of Fierceness is certainly capable of giving Journalism a race, but there are some questions as to whether he is the same horse in 2025. He won the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs at the Kentucky Derby meet, but since then his form has taken a dip. He finished 2nd in the Metropolitan Handicap at Saratoga, where he failed to go past Raging Torrent despite being upsides the winner for the last half a mile, ultimately finishing with furlongs of 12.40 and 13.69s, 0.41s slower than the winner who made virtually every yard of the running. White Abarrio was back in 4th and we can perhaps give him a pass for that effort, but his run-out speed of 31.32 mph ranked only 3rd and there was a sense from the data and the way his stride shortened in the final furlong that he didn’t finish his race in his usual galloping manner. A drop from an average of 6.82m in the 7th furlong to 6.47m in the 8th was the largest drop from any of the 5 runners and his poor showing when only 5th in the Whitney Stakes might lead to similar conclusion.
Todd Pletcher told Bloodhorse.com that he felt “Fierceness had been buzzed by the pacemaker and that made him too headstrong down the backside”. There may be some truth in that, but having led the field into the home straight, it must also be acknowledged that a 5th placed finish, where his final 2 furlong splits ranked 5th and 6th, was a disappointment. His win in the Alysheba Stakes in May was the only time that Fierceness has recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field since his 2-year-old campaign and whilst he may be showing “good signs” in his workouts, he will need to improve his finishing effort to win the Pacific Classic. Fierceness is heading to Del Mar primarily because the stable are keen to split him with his stablemate, Mindframe, who heads to Saratoga for the Jockey Club Gold Cup. It would be unfair to see the Pacific Classic as an afterthought, but in his current form we might dare to suggest that this could be a square peg in a round hole.
There may be some doubts from our data about the way that Fierceness will finish his race, but the same cannot be said for Nysos. This will be just a 2nd start at Grade 1 level for Bob Baffert’s charge, but given the amount of time that he missed in his 3-year-old career, it would be a mistake to dismiss his chances because of that statistic. He finished 2nd in the Churchill Downs Stakes in May, on his first start for over 400-days and that form could not be working out better, with Mindframe, Banishing and Book ‘em Danno all doing their bit to advertise the form in the interim. Nysos had to overcome a wide draw that day, but he recorded the fastest top speed figure of the first 3 home (42.48 mph) and his peak average stride length figure of 26.87 ft was the longest in the field. That came over what would look to be an inadequate 7-furlong trip, but the data certainly confirms the view that he is a Grade 1 performer and if he stays the 10-furlongs at Del Mar, he is a serious threat to Journalism.
He prepared for the Pacific Classic by winning the San Diego Handicap last month on his first try beyond a mile. Now at odds of 1.14, we probably didn’t learn a great deal about him from the form book, but having tracked the pace he eased clear in the home straight under Flavien Prat, finishing with furlong splits of 12.68 and 12.32s, 0.88s faster than anything else in the race. This is a significant rise in class, but after just 6 starts there is every reason to think that there is more improvement to come and it could be argued that he is the value play in the market with fewer miles on the clock.
There are certainly no reasons to be taken from the data of the San Diego Handicap to think that either Mirahmadi or Tarantino will be able to reverse the form with Nysos on Saturday, though neither of them seemed to be suited by battling each other for the lead in the early stages. If, and it is quite a big “if”, one of the leading contenders disappoints, then perhaps the consistent Midnight Mammoth can pick up some of the pieces to run into a place. After 37 starts, he can hardly be considered an improver and even a repeat of his best performance to date, a Grade 3 victory in the Cougar Li Stakes here in 2024 would not be good enough to win a Pacific Classic. However, he was just 0.21s slower than the winner (Skippylongstocking) when 2nd in the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on his latest start in May and if ridden patiently, he could finish past beaten horses to pick up 3rd or 4th. In truth, it would be no more than a tentative suggestion to think that any of the outsiders can win this race, which will revolve around the top 3 in the market unless something unpredictable occurs.
If we assume that Sovereignty is the best horse in North America, and there is every reason to think that’s true based on the data recorded by TPD, then the form book would suggest that the Pacific Classic should go to Journalism. The fact that he gets a 6 lb allowance from his elders can only add to that case and despite a busy 3-year-old campaign, the way he finished his race in the Haskell Stakes would suggest that he is showing no ill-effects from that season so far. Fierceness is hard to predict in his current form and the data from their most recent starts would suggest that Nysos is the more likely danger. He is the “value” play in the market and we can probably expect him to race alongside Journalism behind the early pace. Whether he stays this far is open to question, but he appears to still be improving and if nothing else, his presence should help to draw out further improvement from Journalism if nothing else.