Pacific Classic
“Fierceness dictates the script to Journalism”
When Nysos was scratched from the Pacific Classic on Saturday morning due to injury, some of the gloss may have come off of this race and its potential, but we shouldn’t allow that to detract from what proved to be a top class performance from Fierceness. Last year’s runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic booked his ticket for November with what proved to be a relatively comfortable success as he readily held off the late challenge of his main rival to win by over 3 lengths. Of course we need to acknowledge that everything went right for John Velazquez; his main rival missed the break, the gaps came at the right time at the end of the back straight and a pace that setup a finishing speed of 95% left him ideally placed, but Fierceness did this with such ease that he may well have won regardless of the race setup. A winning time of 1:21.00 would have been enough to win 6 of the last renewals of this race, with only Flightline going quicker in 2022 (1:59.28).
Let’s start by examining the data for the winner. Having swerved slightly to his left when leaving the stalls, he recovered quickly and got himself into an ideal position behind the lead on the inside rail with the fastest 2nd furlong in the race (10.56s). Once there, he traveled strongly before quickening when the gaps appeared in front of him at the end of the back stretch, clocking 12.31 and 12.92s for the 9th and 10th furlongs, both of which ranked 1st. Leading the field into the home straight, he stretched again, increasing his average stride frequency to 2.31 per second in the penultimate furlong as he recorded the fastest final quarter of a mile (25.29s) with the best run-out speed in the field at 32.82 mph. An average stride length of 24.08 ft was considerably shorter than the runner-up, but Fierceness had much less variance in both his stride length and stride frequency data and that consistency proved to be the key as he settled into a rhythm that ultimately proved too strong. His peak average stride length figure was 24.28 ft, a difference of just +0.20 from his race average, which is interesting when it is compared to Journalism, whose average of 25.79 ft was 0.46ft below his race peak, along with a variance of 0.09 between his average and peak stride frequency figures. That data is slightly skewed by the poor start that Michael McCarthy’s charge made, but if we are looking for a word to explain Fierceness’ victory, that word is consistency. That’s slightly ironic given that his recent form could only be described as inconsistent, but he does have a good record on the West Coast and the return to 10-furlongs has clearly helped. Can he win the Breeders’ Cup Classic? Well, he went very close last year and he ran a faster time on Saturday evening than he did last November, but there were some excuses for Journalism and I suspect that both Sovereignty and Sierra Leone are a further step ahead. He had the shortest peak average stride length of the first 10 to cross the line in last year’s Classic and in what looks to be a deeper renewal, that may hold him back.
If everything went right for Fierceness, everything went wrong for Journalism. He broke on terms when the gates opened but he seemed to take a long time to gather stride and over the opening quarter of a mile he lost 0.73s to Fierceness, even though the winner swerved to his left when leaving the chute. It’s a trait that he has started to show in his recent outings, as he ranked 7th of 8 when he ran 12.95s for the opening furlong of the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park. Whether it’s a deliberate tactic or not, he’s putting himself under pressure by giving ground away to top class horses in the opening furlong and that would have to be a concern. The clock shows that he lost the race by 0.6s, which would be a very simplistic way to explain this result, but there is more to it than just the start. Journalism was the fastest horse in the 3rd and 4th furlongs (10.94, 11.60s) as Umberto Rispoli allowed him to close on the field, but once Fierceness hit the front, Journalism was always on the back foot as he weaved his way through the field. Once again he was the fastest horse in the field as they came out of the final turn, but he paid for making such an effort at a time when Fierceness was being held together in front. If we just measure the final 4-furlongs of the race, Fierceness was still 0.28s quicker and despite having the longest average stride length figure for 9 of the 10 furlongs, Journalism wasn’t able to run him down. This doesn’t end his Breeders’ Cup Classic aspirations and it’s not impossible to think that he may reverse this form in the future given the stride data. He finished 6-lengths clear of the 3rd placed Ultimate Gamble and should be capable of winning further Grade 1 races in open company. However, he looks held by Sovereignty and on a form line through Fierceness we can probably add the long striding Sierra Leone to that list too. He’s a truly top class 3-year-old Colt who had everything go against him on Saturday evening, but in what looks to be an exceptional year, that may not be enough to win the biggest prizes over 10-furlongs.