Lexus Melbourne Cup (G1 Handicap)
“Half Yours”
The 2025 Melbourne Cup was won by the horse that was the fastest out of the gate and the fastest at the finish. Simple when put into those terms, but this was an excellent piece of race riding by Jamie Melham, who held on to her mount into the straight before making a daring move up the inside to ultimately win with something in hand. A winning margin of two and three-quarter lengths or 0.45s probably doesn’t reflect the dominance of the Tony and Calvin McEvoy trained gelding, who completed a remarkable double by adding this race to his Caulfield Cup success 17 days earlier. Taking just 5.4s to reach 50 km/h from the gate certainly helped, but it was his late speed that ultimately proved to be the key. His final 3 furlong splits of 11.37, 11.98 and 12.54s were all ranked 1st and having galloped through the line with a run-out speed recorded at 51.84 km/h, 1.87 km/h or 3.6% faster than any of his rivals. If we were talking about this in British racing terms, we might use the well spoken phrase “A Group 1 horse in a handicap”, but Half Yours is much more than that. To win any Melbourne Cup, regardless of the manner of the victory, requires a well balanced horse with plenty of ability. The same comments can apply to a Caulfield Cup. So to have won both in the space of 3 weeks? Wow. That is an incredible performance from horse, rider and trainer. There will be those who will point to his 4th placed finish in the Turnbull Cup behind Sir Delius and Via Sistina and make the case that the subsequently scratched favourite would surely have won on these terms if he had been allowed to run. I can see the angle, but in this form, surely Half Yours would have won anyway?
It paid to race close to the pace and the fact that Joao Moreira went clear with Land Legend at the end of the back straight certainly helped to stretch the field. Moreira later told the Stewards that his horse was fractious at the start and that he couldn’t settle the horse, eventually deciding to let him stride on when it was clear that he was going to continue to overrace. That probably did several of the riders in behind a favour, as it gave them a pace to aim at. A winning time of 3:22.46 meant that this race ranked 8th in the last decade, but that injection of pace from Land Legend, who was the fastest horse in furlongs 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11, shouldn’t be underestimated for the effect that it had on the result.
Goodie Two Shoes was the first runner in the Melbourne Cup for owner JP McManus and he ran a fine race, travelling strongly and hitting the front with 2 furlongs to run. His top speed of 62.64 km/h was far below the 64.55 km/h recorded by the winner and ultimately he was 0.72 slower than Half Yours over the final 600m. However, this was a significant step forwards on his earlier form and he has rewarded his connections bold decision to send him to Australia. Middle Earth also has a European pedigree and the former trainee of John and Thady Gosden, now in the care of Ciaron Maher. He came from further back in the straight and after running the fastest 13th furlong in the race (11.61s) appeared to be going best of all, but he couldn’t sustain the effort and was ultimately beaten by 4 lengths.
I would also like to add a small note on Vauban. Horses that Willie Mullins has trained over hurdles have caught the headlines in recent days and despite another relatively luckless run from Vauban in the Melbourne Cup, he has lost very little in defeat. He was short of room just before halfway and when examined by the Vet after the race, he was found to have lost his hind shoe and had a laceration on his near hind leg. Despite this, he finished his race strongly, recording a run-out speed of 49.97 km/h, a figure that was only surpassed by the winner. He’s unlikely to have beaten Half Yours in this form, but he may well have got closer with a better trip around Flemington.
That covers the “also rans”, but I don’t want anything to detract from the remarkable performance of the winner. He was the fastest horse, given the best ride and the horse that finished to best effect. Half Yours is a Group 1 performer and he stamped his class on a memorable renewal of the Melbourne Cup.
Crown Oaks (G1)
“Strictly Business”
Just 13 days ago, Strictly Business lined up in a maiden over 1,400m at Ballarat. She won that day, returning at what now seems to be a remarkable SP of $9.50, but it would have been virtually impossible to think that she was a contender for the Crown Oaks on the back of that win. She ran the fastest final 3 furlongs that day, closing with furlong splits of 11.80, 11.37 and 11.74s to run out a winner by half a length after making good ground from the back of the field. The first point to note, if you haven’t already, is that the 2nd placed Miss Deceiver is probably worth adding to your notebook as it’s now looking like she may have “bumped into a good one” that day. However, whilst this is a remarkable story for Strictly Business and her trainer Thomas Carberry, the data would suggest that there was no fluke about this success.
Drawn wide in stall 13, it was no surprise to see John Allen give her time to gather stride, especially given that this was her first start over the trip. The 6.6s that she took to reach 50 km/h when the stalls opened was the slowest figure from the 13 strong field and she took 9.21s to reach the first furlong pole, the only horse in the field to take longer than 9s to do so. By the time that she reached the 2,000m pole, she was 1.42s behind the pace setting Zouclaire. The early leader finished well beaten in 12th place, but Ethan Brown did attempt to try and steady the early pace aboard Zouclaire, as the pace dropped to a relatively sedate 13.35s for the 7th furlong. This caused the field to concertina slightly and as they turned for home, the principles moved alongside the leader. At this point, Strictly Business was behind a wall of horses and John Allen was forced to wait for the gap to come on his outside. Once into the clear, Strictly Business took off, closing with furlongs of 11.24 and 12.02s and a race best late speed figure of 64.04 km/h. To add some context to those closing furlongs, the 23.26s that she ran for the final quarter of a mile was 0.99s faster than the runner-up (The Pearls 24.25s) and 0.56s faster than anything else in the field. Whilst we need to acknowledge that the runner-up did run the fastest 9th and 10th furlongs when she hit the front with 2 furlongs to run and as such she was vulnerable to a strong closer, she had a very similar stride length to the winner and the higher top speed figure (67.25 km/h). Allen’s patience was the key to the way that Strictly Business finished the race, but her stride length did not reach its race peak until she reached the home straight and the acceleration that she found in the straight, which included the fastest individual furlong split in the entire race (11.24s for the penultimate furlong) was remarkable for such an inexperienced horse. She also took in the G2 Wakeful Stakes here 5 days ago too, finishing 2nd to Getta Good Feeling despite running the fastest final quarter of a mile in 22.95s. She has readily reversed that form in the Crown Oaks on her first try at this trip. She needs to be delivered late, but she appears to be on a curve of rapid improvement and we can have nothing but praise for the way she has improved over the past fortnight.
Thomas Carberry comes from the famous Carberry family of Paul, Phillip and Nina, but this training performance needs to be considered to be on a par with their achievements in the Jumps game in Ireland. To take a daughter of Grunt, whose Dam is a daughter of the US Dirt Champion Uncle Mo and step up from a 1,400m maiden to a Group 1 success in the space of 2 weeks is one of the most phenomenal pieces of training that will be seen around the world in 2025.