Ladbrokes 1965 Chase (G2)
"Jango Baie"
The 2025 renewal of the 1965 Chase is going to be one of those races where the strength of the form will be interpreted in several different ways throughout the weeks ahead. On the one hand, the race was won by an Arkle winner who has taken another step forward by going back up in trip and who now features heavily in the Ante Post betting for the King George on Boxing Day. On the other hand, he beat 4 rivals who have all had their issues and so we could well take the view that he should have won this race, regardless of the circumstances. I’ll start with the time. A winning time of 5:16.39s was faster than the previous 2 renewals won by Pic D’Orhy and you have to go back to Politologue winning the race in 2018 to find a better time. After some much needed rain, the ground has finally turned for the National Hunt season, but a winning time that was 4s faster than the TPD Expected time for the grade would suggest that the official going of “Good, Good to Soft in Places” was accurate. We can therefore say that the time would support the theory that this was an above average performance from Jango Baie, but what about the rest of the data?
It’s slightly difficult to form a strong opinion on Jango Baie from this race alone. His average speed lost at his fences (8.2%) ranked 2nd and despite a couple of minor mistakes at the 9th and 10th fences which he met on the wrong stride, he largely put in a solid jumping display. Perhaps most notably, his jumping accuracy increased to an average speed loss of just 7% in the latter stages of the race when the pace lifted. The runner-up, Gidleigh Park, lost an average of just 5.5% of his speed over his obstacles and consistently ranked as the most fluent jumper in the field throughout the contest. However, at an average of 23.20 ft, he had the longest stride length in the field, 2.01 ft longer than the 21.19ft recorded by Jango Baie and as the horse with more scope for jumping fences, it is perhaps a little harsh to compare the 2 directly. Jango Baie is certainly progressing nicely and the fact that he ran his fastest furlongs towards the latter part of the race, reaching a peak average stride frequency of 2.2 per second in the 19th furlong, would suggest that there is further improvement to come when he tackles 3 miles. Is he a King George winner in waiting? Well there I’m not sure. This was a very good performance, but a top speed of 34.83 mph on ground close to good still leaves him with a couple of question marks when we compare his form to that required for a King George winner. As an example, Spillane’s Tower and Banbridge topped 35 mph at Kempton in last year’s race, whereas Fact to File reached 35.70 mph when winning the Ryanair. It’s small margins and different courses, so there is a lot of caution needed with that kind of approach. However, Jango Baie had the run of the race at Ascot in what I believe to be a sub-par renewal of the 1965 Chase and as such, he may be slightly flattered by the strength of the form.
Gidleigh Park produced a solid jumping display and capped that with the best run-out speed in the field (28.57 mph). He has had issues in the past with a fibrillating heart and clearly needs to be minded, but if anything, I’m more excited by this performance over what now looks to be an inadequate trip. He was no match for Jango Baie in the straight, but he kept at it and his stride frequency also peaked in the final 3 furlongs, suggesting that there will be more to come. He lacked the turn-of-foot that the winner had in the latter stages of the contest, but he shaped like a horse who is now ready to try 3 miles again and his earlier novice form would suggest that there are races at this level to be won with him if he can be kept sound. Pic D’Orhy had won the previous 2 renewals of this race and his Ascot record is exceptional. However, despite an early attempt from Harry Cobden to control the pace, he lacked his usual speed and put in a below par round of jumping by his standards, losing an average of 10.2% of his speed over his fences, which increased to 13.3% in the latter stages. By comparison, he lost just 7.6% when winning the Ascot Chase here in February. There are a couple of reasons for this. The first would be that he is at his best when he is able to dominate in front and get into a jumping rhythm, which wasn’t possible on Saturday as both Il Est Francais and then Gidleigh Park came alongside him in the early stages. Secondly and perhaps more importantly, he came into this race after a relatively protracted battle with Djelo in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby 3-weeks ago. His previous wins in this race came on his seasonal return and it may well be that the Wetherby race left a mark that was too much to overcome 21 days later. Either way, he was beaten by 36 lengths and was over 6s slower than Jango Baie in the home straight.
Master Chewy didn’t jump with any fluency, losing 12.6% of his speed over his fences on average, the worst figure of the 4 to complete. He had race fitness on his side after a 2nd placed finish in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree and there is no obvious excuse for his defeat. An official rating of 158 has forced his connections hand to a certain degree and it may be that he needs a few lbs back from the grader and a return to handicapping before he makes his mark. The stable switch didn’t appear to work for Il Est Francais, who was eased down after the 3rd last and I’m running out of excuses to make for him. His best form is at Kempton and he likes to dominate, but the early pace wasn’t excessive and yet he failed to hold his position. In the early and middle parts of the race his jumping fluency ranked in the top 2 and a post-race examination from the vet found no abnormalities. In the last 12 months his only win came when he dropped into a conditions hurdle at Lyon Parilly in April, a race he was entitled to win by a furlong at the weights and with no explanation found for this performance, it would be impossible to make a case for him next time.
So having made an attempt at least to explain the performances of the other 4, what conclusions can be drawn from the data about Jango Baie and his future prospects? Well firstly I should highlight that this feels close to a career best. Regardless of whether or not we view him as a potential King George winner, he has dominated this race in the closing stages and all of his late speed data would suggest that there is more improvement to come. He has won an Arkle despite being almost detached at halfway and his defeats last season came in tactical races where the emphasis on the sprint finish in the conditions played against him. If he is going to win a King George, then he needed to win this race in the authoritative manner that he did, but the flip side would be to say that the data suggests that he beat a horse who needs 3-miles, a horse whose last race left a mark, a horse who isn’t quite up to this level and horse who is regressive and failed to fire (again). Is that harsh? Probably. At the end of the day, Jango Baie could only beat the horses that lined up next to him. If there aren’t any serious Irish challengers, then of course he should win the King George on this evidence and if you have an Ante-Post slip with a fancy price, I wish you luck. The data tells us that he ran close to a career best at Ascot. It tells us that the further he went the better and faster he got and it tells us that his jumping should hold together in a better race. However, the data also points towards a theory that his 4 rivals weren’t able to show their best form in the 1965 Chase. For that reason, I’m going to end this review in a slightly cowardly way and sit on the fence. “Jango Baie is the best chance of a British trainer winning the King George at Kempton next month”. I don’t think that will be disproved at Kempton, but if the likes of Fact to File or Gaelic Warrior run, then Jango Baie will need to find another 8-10 lbs of improvement to reach their proven Grade 1 level.