If you were to ask the team at Spendthrift Farms which horse they are most excited about for the Kentucky Derby, they would almost certainly say Ted Noffey. However, that shouldn’t detract from the fact that Further Ado is a very capable deputy and he took a significant step forward to win this $400,000 Grade 2 contest. The form of his maiden win at Keeneland in October is open to question, but he hit the line strongly that day, recording the fastest run-out speed in the field (35.34 mph) as he won going away under Irad Ortiz Jr. At a peak average stride length of 24.98 ft, he recorded a much longer stride than the placed horses that day and ran the fastest split for each of the final 4 furlongs as he pulled clear to win by over 10-lengths. Everything from the data on that occasion suggested that he had improved significantly for the step up in trip and he confirmed that hypothesis to win on Saturday afternoon. 

A fast early pace from Dr Kapur (6th) and then Soldier N Diplomat (3rd) helped to set this race up, but the data confirms the visual impression that this was a stamina laden performance from Further Ado and in a better race, I would argue that he has produced a more impressive performance despite the shorter winning margin. Pulled out to challenge off the home turn by Irad Ortiz, he has maintained an average stride frequency figure of 2.26 per second for each of the final 3 furlongs to wear down Soldier N Diplomat in the stretch. The video replay might suggest that the 2nd placed Universe was an unlucky loser and he was closing all the way to the line, closing in furlongs of 12.56 and 12.56s, 0.88s quicker than Further Ado. However, this race had a finishing speed of 92.7% and having been given a very patient ride by Brian Hernandez, Universe was ridden to finish his race strongly. His connections had tried to make the running in the Street Sense stakes in October and he was picked off by the fast-finishing Incredibolt. I can completely understand the change of tactics and it nearly worked, but given that Further Ado raced much closer to the pace, I think it would be a mistake to assume that this form. might have been reversed if the runner-up was ridden more aggressively. Further Ado recorded a top speed figure of 40.82 mph, compared to the 39.97 mph recorded by Universe and as a result, the former seems the more likely to win a straight race between the pair.

What Universe does is add some substance to this form. He finished 2nd in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) last time and he also has a 3rd placed finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1) behind Napoleon Solo. If we take that form into account, then that would at least place Further Ado in the top 5 prospects for the Kentucky Derby next season, even if his owners have a more likely candidate at this point.