Remsen Stakes
"Road to the Kentucky Derby"
"Paladin"
The latest race on the road to the Kentucky Derby 2026 took place at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon. This year’s running of the Remsen Stakes was won by the Chad Brown trained Paladin, but what can we learn from his victory in New York and where he may rank in the Derby pecking order?
I want to start with the basics. Paladin has beaten the same horse on 2 occasions now and so that does make this form slightly harder to quantify. The form book has 1,1 in it at least, though the connections of Renegade may point out that he finished ahead of Paladin when they met here in October before the result was subsequently reversed in the Stewards’ room after the race. Having watched that replay, I think it was the right decision as Renegade did drift to his right and with such a narrow margin between the pair crossing the line, it does seem like Paladin may well have won had he been able to race on a true line. On both occasions, Paladin has recorded a better run-out speed than Renegade (a speed taken 2s after the horses have crossed the line) which would at least suggest that he is the stronger stayer of the pair. Perhaps more significantly, the pair ran very similar races on Saturday afternoon and Paladin was able to assert, running the final quarter of a mile in 25.23s, which was 0.38s quicker than Renegade and there is no obvious reason to think that the form would be reversed if they met again. Renegade is a winner in waiting and it will be interesting to see if Todd Pletcher decides to continue to run in Stakes company or if he will take a drop in grade to pick up a victory for his son of Into Mischief. Renegade is a nice horse and appears to be a capable stakes performer, but the further they went on Saturday, the more Paladin was able to assert his dominance and he is the only horse in this field that looks capable of taking steps into graded company next time.
Having been drawn in stall 2, Flavien Prat had plenty of options and after opening furlongs of 11.97 and 11.56s, ranked 3rd and 4th of the 11 runners, Paladin found himself in the ideal position behind the early leaders as they headed out of the back straight. Briefly asked for more effort around the turn, he swung wide into the straight to get himself on terms and once straightened for the run to the line, he readily asserted with the fastest final quarter of a mile in the field. At 40.38 mph, his top speed was slower than the 2 horses that chased him home, but he had a much longer average stride length than Renegade and so once the pair were on terms, Paladin was always likely to prove to be the stronger stayer. This race was not run at an end-to-end gallop and each of the first 5 horses were able to quicken into the penultimate furlong. A finishing speed of 96.7% for the winner is relatively sedate for a race on the dirt at Aqueduct and that does need to be factored in. However, the first 3 were nicely clear of the rest and Paladin was able to assert in the final strides when Flavien Prat asked him to stretch. He recorded an average stride frequency of 2.26 per second in the final furlong compared to a race average figure of 2.24 per second, an increase of 0.9%. This race wasn’t run at a frantic pace and so we might have expected him to have something left in reserve at the end of the contest as a result, but the fact that he was able to maintain that gallop and pull clear of his rivals does bode well for the future. The 3rd placed Balboa, who did most of the hard work in front, did fade in the final furlong (13.16s) but he won the James F. Lewis III Stakes at Laurel Park in November and gives a good look to this form as a result.
So Paladin has earned himself 10 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby, but where does this performance rank with some of the other early contenders? Well firstly I think it is fair to say that horses like Ted Noffey have certainly achieved a lot more. That’s obvious, but having only made his debut in mid-October, Paladin doesn’t appear to have done anything wrong and he certainly took a significant step forward to win here. On debut, he was run down by Renegade, albeit with some interference and he easily found more than half a second on his rival from run 1 to 2 in the final quarter of a mile. However, a winning time of 1:50.97 was slower than the last 2 renewals of this race and so we cannot yet be certain that his stamina will hold out in better company. I should add that there is no reason to doubt that at this stage, but there is another step forward required before he can be considered as one of the principles for the Derby in 2026. Dornoch (Danny Gargan) beat Sierra Leone in this race in 2023 before going on to win the Belmont Stakes as a 3-year-old. I am not suggesting for one moment that the 2 performances are related, but on a sloppy track, Dornoch had a faster top speed and a quicker time with a finishing speed of 94%. With that type of comparison, I think it gives a good summary for this performance from Paladin. He’s a lightly raced horse who has taken the step into stakes company in his stride but there will be much sterner tests to come and as a result, he is best described as improving but unproven at this stage.