DP World Al Wasl Stakes
"Flying Comet"
Horse Racing has a habit of bringing you back down to earth with a bump. Meydan’s Friday card looked particularly tricky but after finding a couple of winners earlier in the card, I was feeling like I had cracked this game. I’m sure many of us have been there, that euphoric moment when you find a couple of winners and it feels like you are finally getting to grips with the great game. Then came the Al Wasl Stakes. If you had asked me on Friday morning to give you a certain winner on Friday’s card, it would have been Words of Truth. Yes, he was a short price in the International markets but for good reason. His 2-year-old form, which included impressive wins at Ascot and Newbury and a 3rd placed finish in the new 2-year-old Conditions race on Champions Day at Ascot all suggested that he was likely to prove to be too good for his rivals. He had finished almost a second ahead of Flying Comet in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury, producing better top speed, late speed and run-out speed figures in the process. Although he was beaten at Ascot in October, he was just 0.1s slower than the winner (Mission Central) over the final quarter of a mile and the straight track at Meydan seemed highly likely to suit. He ran his race. There’s no reason to suggest that Words of Truth wasn’t ready for this race. His top speed figure of 43.31 mph was quicker than the winner’s, as was his run-out speed of 35.21 mph and having run 3 consecutive sub 11-second furlongs in the middle part of the race, he wasn’t caught out for speed. The winner recorded a finishing speed figure of 103.9% and there weren’t any hard luck stories with most of the main contenders getting a clear run if they were good enough. The early pace from Postmodern, Spacetown and then Maximized helped to tow the field along, but at the 2 furlong pole, William Buick would have been reasonably happy aboard Words of Truth. All of the data for this race from TPD would suggest that Words of Truth ran his race and yet he was beaten. That then leads me to the obvious question, how did Flying Comet win and was this a fluke?
The latter part of that question is simple to answer, this wasn’t a fluke. Flying Comet was a worthy winner and his mid-race sectionals, which included 4 consecutive sub 11-second furlongs (10.61, 10.65, 10.47 and 10.99s) point to a top class sprinting performance. Being one of the last to load into the stalls may have helped, but he took 6.8s to reach 30 mph when the stalls opened, compared to the 6.2s taken by the 2nd and 3rd placed horses. I think that’s the first point in his favour. That slightly slower start meant that Flying Comet was able to track Words of Truth and that appeared to help him to settle. Silvestre De Sousa kept him down the centre of the course and once on terms, this long striding son of Havana Grey always seemed likely to come past Words of Truth in the final furlong. At 25.93 ft, he had the longest average stride length in the field (next best Words of Truth 24.95 ft). That’s the key to this victory. A good pace, a clear run on a straight track and a target to aim at all played to his strengths. Add a long stride and a fast horse into those circumstances and we come to an impressive victory like this. Flying Comet capped a fine evening for the Victorious Forever owners, who also enjoyed success with Force and Valour in the We One Handicap earlier on the card. The going needs to be taken into account. On better ground, Flying Comet recorded a much longer average stride length than he managed on Soft ground at Newbury in the Mill Reef (23.92 ft) and I think it is worth noting that he also had the longest average stride length in the field when winning a nursery handicap at Windsor in September, which was run on Good to Soft ground. The good news is that he is highly likely to get similar underfoot conditions for the remainder of the season in Dubai.
I have watched this race several times and looked through all of the data. We can’t measure how far each of these horses may improve for the benefit of their first starts since October, but if we were to assume that they both run their races next time, there is every reason to think that Flying Comet will confirm this form for the Crisford team.