“So Happy strikes as Buetane fails to ignite at Santa Anita”
San Vicente Stakes (G2)
Perhaps I should be forgiven that slightly “Dad Joke” headline but I couldn’t resist. The San Vicente Stakes has been won by the likes of Muth (2024) and Nyquist (2016) in the last decade and has largely become a Bob Baffert benefit in recent seasons, with the great trainer winning 5 of the last 6 renewals to add to his record breaking haul of 14 wins in the race. With those kinds of statistics in his favour, it was no surprise to see the Bob Baffert trained Buetane, a lightly raced 3-year-old by Tiz the Law at the head of the market. He had made a winning debut at Del Mar in August and his 2nd placed finish behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Ted Noffey in the Spendthrift Hopeful Stakes in September was some of the strongest 2-year-old form in the US last year, albeit that he was over a second behind the winner when they crossed the line. Market support is one thing, but the presence of a 2nd placed finish behind Ted Noffey probably led to a slight overreaction in the market to the chances of Buetane and as a result, it left the impressive debut victory of So Happy out of the equation. He beat a couple of subsequent winners when winning a Del Mar maiden at the end of November under Mike Smith, pulling his way to the front with a race best 11.73s for the 5th furlong split. That form was a long way behind the run of Buetane in the Hopeful Stakes, but So Happy took a significant step forwards in the San Vicente and having examined the data, there’s no obvious reason to think that the form would be reversed next time.
Having been 25/1 on debut, So Happy was clearly an unknown quantity and having started behind the pace with Buetane, Mike Smith quickly had him settled with opening furlongs of 12.30 and 10.46s. A race finishing speed of 89.9% does point to a good early pace and that came from Greenwich Village and Acknowledgemeplz who ran 10.21 and 10.25s respectively for the 2nd furlong. Greenwich Village was keen in the hands of Hector Berrios and rushed up on the inside from stall 1 to push Acknowledgemeplz forwards and that helped to ensure that the race developed into a stamina test, with 4 of the 5 runners recording top speed figures above 44 mph in the back straight. Greenwich Village began to fade around the turn, but having used his long stride to get into the perfect position behind the pace, So Happy was able to use Acknoweldgemeplz as a target to aim at as they rounded the final turn. Once into the straight, there was a brief moment when Kazushi Kimura appeared to have slipped the field, but So Happy was quick to close that gap and once straightened for the line, there was only ever likely to be one winner. Closing furlongs of 12.52 and 13.13s both ranked 1st of the 5 runners and So Happy was the only horse to top 35 mph with his late speed figure (35.09 mph). When we compare the average stride length data for So Happy and Buetane, it gives a significant hint as to the reason for this result and in particular, why it is unlikely to be reversed.
So Happy recorded an average stride length of 25.79 ft, easily the longest stride in the field (next best Buetane 24.72 ft) and that reached a peak average of 27.78 ft at the end of the back straight. The fast early pace and the racing room behind the 2 leaders allowed So Happy to stretch out under Mike Smith and so whilst we can say that a decent pace will be important to So Happy in the races that are yet to come, the ability to stretch and gallop behind that pace will always give him a chance. In his post race comments, Mike Smith felt confident that So Happy would easily get the 2 turn trip and it seems that the Santa Anita Derby in April will be the long term aim, with a step up to a mile the obvious next step down that road. A $150,000 son of Runhappy, So Happy has already rewarded his connections with 2 superb performances and on both occasions he has recorded late speed and run-out speeds that ranked in the top 2, suggesting that Mike Smith’s view that he will stay further is the correct one. It would be easy to assume that Buetane failed to run his race and we will come to that, but I think it is important to focus on the performance of So Happy, who may well have won in any case and who has now propelled himself to the top of the 3-year-old ranks in California.
The data cannot tell us how fit Buetane was. We hadn’t seen him since the Hopeful Stakes in September and it was really only Bob Baffert who could tell us if his son of Tiz the Law was at his peak. However, a simple analysis of the data would suggest that he has a lot of work to do to close the gap to So Happy. When the winner chased the leaders into the far turn, Buetane was behind him and despite mid-race furlongs of 11.10 and 11.90s around the turn, both of which were the fastest in the field, trying to concede ground to a horse with such a long stride, in a race run at a fast pace, was always going to be a recipe for trouble. When he was beaten by Ted Noffey back in September, he had been the fastest horse in the 2nd and 3rd furlongs, but he couldn’t sustain that speed into the latter stages of the Hopeful Stakes and it was a similar scenario at Santa Anita. He may well take a step forward from this and I think it is important to note that he had a higher average stride frequency (2.38 per second) and top speed (44.43 mph) than the winner. However, there was a significant margin between the 2 at the line and So Happy was 0.27s quicker over the final quarter of a mile. So Happy enjoyed the better run through, but Buetane will need a cute ride to get the better of him next time and with such a difference between the pair in terms of their stride reach, it’s debatable whether Buetane will be able to keep himself close enough to make such a late challenge.
When Barnes won this race in 2025 I thought that he could make up into a Kentucky Derby contender. That didn’t work out and as a result, I want to exercise a strong note of caution with the 2026 result. So Happy was really impressive and a long striding horse that has the speed to keep himself in contention in the back stretch is one of the key things that I look for with our data when watching the 3-year-olds on the dirt. However, when we compare So Happy to his rivals, we have to reach the conclusion that this race set up perfectly for him. If Buetane didn’t entirely run his race, that would raise a question mark given he was just 0.37s behind crossing the line and the other 3 seem unlikely to progress beyond this level. A winning time of 1:22.15 made this the fastest San Vicente Stakes since Sparky Ville won in 2019 for Jeff Bonde and that pace meant this was always likely to suit the horse with the longest stride. So Happy’s debut win came in a maiden run with a race finishing speed of 93% too. If I could be certain that there would be a similarly fast pace next time, then I don’t think So Happy will be beaten when he steps up to 2 turns. However, I would like to see him win an “ugly race” without the need for a strong pace before I allow the positive impression from this data to run away with me. He would appear to be one of the best 3-year-old prospects that I have seen in the US, but I’m a great believer that any horse could produce one top class performance, doing it twice could be a coincidence and they need to do it 3 times before it can be seen as a pattern. So Happy has delivered the first 2 with relative ease, so let’s hope he can deliver the 3rd when he steps up to the mile next time.