BetMGM Clarence House Chase (G1)
When you see a 4 runner race on the monthly schedule, there could be a thought that the workload might be slightly lighter for that week, but actually, there’s quite a lot to unpick from this year’s Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Jonbon may not have a Cheltenham Festival win on his CV, but he has done everything else and it was wonderful to see him add another Grade 1 to his record. The form book will say that Gidleigh Park pulled-up at halfway and that Il Etait Temps was soundly beaten at the point that he took a tired fall at the 2nd last, but those facts should not be used as a reason to down play this form. Jonbon and Thistle Ask served up a thriller on Saturday afternoon and there is a case to be made from the data that both of them ran close to their career best levels at Ascot.
The first point that I need to make is the time. A winning time of 4:08.66 made this the fastest winning time in the Clarence House Chase where the ground has been described as “Soft or Heavy” in the last 20 years when the race has been run at Ascot. The race distance has been tweaked a little in that time, this year’s race was 5 yards longer than in 2025, but it serves as a good example of the pace set by Thistle Ask. The time was 11.2 faster than the TPD expected time for a Class 1 race over this course and distance on soft ground. For some comparison, the earlier races over the chase course, won by The Jukebox Kid and Vincenzo were 3.39s fast and 0.91s slower respectively, which would suggest that the “Soft” going description was on the mark. Taking the working assumption that the going was soft, this was a remarkable front running display from Thistle Ask, who was still able to jump the last on terms despite setting fast fractions on the soft ground in a race run with a finishing speed of 93%. When winning this race in 2025, Jonbon made the running under Nico de Boinville on ground described as “Good”, reaching the halfway point in 1:55.59. This year, on ground described as soft, Thistle Ask took 1:50.40 to reach the same point. At that pace, the fact that Thistle Ask was still in front on the run to the final fence is truly remarkable and any doubts as to whether Dan Skelton’s horse could take the leap from Handicap company into a Grade 1 can quickly be dismissed. This was a Grade 1 performance and would have been enough to win most renewals of the Clarence House Chase. Having got into a good early rhythm, he produced a much more efficient jumping display than Jonbon, losing an average of just 9.4% of his speed over his obstacles compared to the 12% lost by the winner. Perhaps more significantly, he recorded speed loss figures of 5.7% and 8.3% in the early and middle part of the contest compared to the 7.3% and 12.4% that TPD recorded for Jonbon at those points in the contest. A bold front runner with jumping scores like that was always likely to stretch this field but having touched a short price in running as they rounded the home turn, there’s perhaps a case to be made that Thistle Ask could have won if Harry Skelton had been able to keep slightly more in reserve for the climb up the Ascot hill. That’s perhaps a little harsh, but there is no doubt that this race was won with stamina. Thistle Ask recorded a run-out speed 25.39 mph as his stride frequency dropped to an average of 2.04 per second in the final furlong. This was a monumental effort at the end of a hard race. At first, I thought there was a case to be made that Thistle Ask was the horse to take from this contest with a view to the Champion Chase in March. The Old Course at Cheltenham is definitely the place for a bold front running ride on a superb jumper like him, but there are risks attached given the pace he set and the fact that this race, his 5th outing of the season, may well have left a mark.
I’m happy to admit when I am wrong and after a pair of lacklustre runs in the Schloer Chase and the Tingle Creek, I had written Jonbon off. He was 1.86s slower than Il Etait Temps over the final quarter of a mile at Sandown and ranked behind the Mullins horse for all of our speed metrics. Il Etait Temps didn’t run his race, but he was upsides Jonbon as they ran to the 3rd last and at that stage, the pair of them looked beaten. Il Etait Temps had been faster than Jonbon in the 3 furlongs leading up to that point and looked likely to at least confirm the Sandown form between the pair. However, whilst Il Etait Temps was tiring, Jonbon was simply being outpaced as Harry Skelton stretched the field in front and once straightened for the line, it was Jonbon who found the courage to get himself back into the race. Closing sectionals of 14.66, 16.15 and 16.56s were too much for Thistle Ask and when James Bowen needed him to find a stride, he came for him at the final fence. When winning this race 12 months ago he was able to ease clear of Energumene, who had missed some time and was probably past his best. This year, he found reserves of stamina to chase down one of the most progressive chasers in the UK and I would definitely rate this performance above his 2025 victory. His stride frequency over the final half a mile recorded an average of 2.12 per second, within 2% of his race average figure of 2.15 per second and slightly higher than the 2.11 that he recorded on good ground 12 months ago. At the age of 10, there will be some that will argue that it is too late to explore going up in trip with Jonbon, but I wonder if that is accurate. He has won a Melling Chase over the intermediate trip, a race where he recorded a finishing speed of 98% and now he has won a Clarence House Chase by running down a leader who set gruelling fractions on soft ground. Jonbon was slowing down in the straight at the end of a hard race and it’s important to note that Thistle Ask had very little left to offer in the final 100 yards, but Jonbon wasn’t entirely stopping and if this race doesn’t leave its mark, it’s not impossible to think he could win another Grade 1 over further.
I also need to heap some praise on James Bowen. It’s an easy job being an analyst. I can sit and watch a race from the comfort of my office chair, large latte in hand and carrying the kind of weight that would make the clerk of the scales wince. Riding horses takes courage and having been drafted in at the last moment when Harry Cobden was stood down, the pressure on James Bowen was immense. Jonbon’s 2024 defeat in this race under Bowen when it was switched to Cheltenham was about as high profile as it gets. Bowen rose to the occasion. Reading the pace and keeping close enough to Thistle Ask was important and even when he asked Jonbon for a big leap at the 8th and he put down, he didn’t panic. He allowed the pace to drop, conceding half a second to Thistle Ask in the furlongs following that error but giving his mount time to recover before galvanising him for one last effort. It was a risky strategy at that stage of the race but it paid off and that’s all that will really matter. This was more than just redemption from 2024, this was one of the best rides of his career at the point where the pressure was highest. He may not ride Jonbon again, but the pair of them will always have this race and James Bowen rode it perfectly.
There will be a lot of column inches taken up by this race in the next couple of days. For a race where only 2 horses crossed the line, it was one of the better ones. There are lots of ways to view this race, but these would be my main conclusions; Thistle Ask is a Grade 1 performer. To beat him, Jonbon had to produce close to a career best. If that’s the case, then he is far from finished and if he goes up in trip in the future, he will be carrying my money.