Jebel Hatta Presented by Longines (G1)
“Opera Ballo wins his first Group 1, it won’t be his last”
Opera Ballo has now won 6 of his 8 career starts for Charlie Appleby and it may be tempting to think that he doesn’t get the credit that he deserves for that record. He was disappointing when 6th behind Field of Gold in the Craven Stakes back in April, but he is a different horse now and although he is still keen and pulls hard in the early part of his races, he does settle better than he did 9 months ago. It’s perfectly possible that he bumped into a top class horse in the shape of Zeus Olympios in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket in September and since switching to Dubai, the data we have would suggest that Opera Ballo has taken his form to a new level. If I had to pinpoint a reason for this improvement, I’d have to suggest that going around a bend is the key to this horse. He did manage to win on the July course at Newmarket last Summer, but he was ideally placed that day in a race run with a good pace for him to aim at and a finishing speed of 101%. Going around the long sweeping bends at Meydan has helped this horse to conserve some energy and as he showed in the Jebel Hatta, that means that he can finish his races with a real flourish.
The Godolphin team have taken to using Nations Pride as a pacemaker for Opera Ballo and once Mickael Barzalona sorted his irons out in the opening furlong, the 7-year-old did his job. Opening with furlongs of 14.16 and 11.47s, Nations Pride helped to tow the field along, setting a pace that resulted in a finishing speed of 102%. All of that helped to set the race up for Opera Ballo and once the field came into the home straight and William Buick pulled him out to make his challenge, there was only ever going to be one winner. As you can see from the graphic, Opera Ballo ranked 1st for all of the speed metrics that are measured by TPD in the latter stages of the race and he was extremely good value for his winning margin of 2.5 lengths. Closing furlongs of 11.17 and 11.69s were both ranked 1st and the former was the fastest individual split produced by any of the 6 runners, including Nation’s Pride. It’s important to remember that the runner-up, Silawi, was a group 1 winner in Canada last year and with the exception of a poor run at the Breeders’ Cup, he has largely been a consistent performer for Wathnan Racing. At an average of 7.57m, Silawi recorded a longer stride than Opera Ballo (7.35m) but he simply lacked the turn-of-foot needed to go with the winner in the final quarter of a mile of the Meydan straight and there really doesn’t seem to be any reason to think that this form would be overturned in the future. Silawi’s form is largely over a longer trip and that needs to be accounted for, but having had a pace to track behind Nations Pride has helped him to use his stamina. I quite like Silawi as a horse for some of the middle distance races later in the year, but he isn’t in the same class as Opera Ballo and that does lead me to ask how good Charlie Appleby’s horse could be?
The honest answer to that question is that we simply don’t know yet. He was 2s slower than Romantic Warrior in this race 12-months ago, but that race developed into a sprint finish which really suited Danny Shum’s star and for what it’s worth, Opera Ballo ran a faster final furlong and a much quicker run-out speed. He needs a pacemaker, but it’s not like his connections are short of options to use in that department and so he should continue to get races run to suit. William Buick is able to keep a lid on him now and the fact that his stride frequency reached it’s peak in the latter stages of the race, averaging 2.42 per second in the penultimate furlong, shows that they are now able to ride him in such a way that means he has energy left for the closing stages. It will be fascinating to see whether he can translate this improvement back to a straight track later in the year, but for now whilst he stays in the Middle East, it’s very hard to see him getting beaten. As I stated at the top of this piece, it’s a first group 1 success for the son of Ghaiyyath and it won’t be his last.