Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
Gulfstream Park
"Nearly"
Wow! That was the first word that came to my mind when watching the video replay of this year’s Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Visually, this was one of the most impressive performances that we have seen from this crop of 3-year-olds and I’m not surprised to see that Nearly has been catapulted towards the head of the market for the Kentucky Derby as a result. If we were simply to take the form at face value, then it could probably be argued that he should be towards the head of the market given that he has beaten the previously unbeaten Bravaro with relative ease. John Velazquez always looked to be the most comfortable rider in the race and as they turned for home, he was looking around for dangers in the manner of a jockey who knew that he was in pole position. Even in the home stretch, Velazquez oozed confidence and was barely nudging his mount home in the final furlong after giving him just one reminder to keep him straight. At first glance, I’m sold. Nearly had experience of the track on his side, but the step up to the mile trip has clearly suited and he must surely be capable of stepping up into Grade 1 company. However, my job is to analyse the data. I’ve used it before and will probably wheel it out again, but the reason that I wear glasses is because my eyes don’t always tell me the truth. When a horse produces such an impressive display, I think it is always important to take a step back and wait for the data to confirm that impression.
I’ll start with the time. A winning time of 1:44.52 was slightly ahead of the 1:44.60 expected time we had for this race. However, this is a key trial on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and it has a long history of producing top class horses. Tiz the Law (2020) and White Abarrio (2022) are the most obvious recent examples that spring to mind. When we compare the winning time of Nearly to the other recent winners of this race, it’s not quite so impressive on the clock. Since the race changed back to a mile and a sixteenth in 2013, only Rocket Can (2023) and Hades (2024) have run slower times. The track conditions can play a part in that and the 3 previous races run on the dirt on Saturday evening were all slower than our expected time figures. There’s also a fair point to be made that Nearly wasn’t asked for everything in the home straight and he may well have been capable of running a faster time if any of his rivals had been able to take him further into the contest. I’ve also included a copy of the Pace Chart into this report because I think it is important to acknowledge the strength of the early pace. A finishing speed of 89% would obviously point to a fast early pace and the fact that Cannoneer was driven forwards by Irad Ortiz Jr helped to ensure that Nearly had early competition for the lead. He opened with furlong splits of 5.86 and 11.31s at a top speed of 40.67 mph. That helped to sort the field into a running order and having settled Nearly on the leaders quarters, John Velazquez had the best racing position down the back straight. 
The pace began to drop from the half mile pole and I do think it is important to note that Nearly was running progressively slower splits from the 3rd furlong all the way to the line. However, given that his average stride length of 24 ft ranked only 4th of the 6 runners and was shorter than both Bravaro (24.21 ft) and Cannoneer (24.22 ft), it’s testament to his stamina and attitude that he was able to travel so strongly into the latter stages of the contest despite his early exertions. I prefer to use stride frequency data as a pointer to a horse’s potential stamina and the fact that Nearly was able to average 2.3 stride per second around the turn, above his race average figure, would suggest that he is more than capable of maintaining such a gallop against better horses.
The pace was simply too quick for plenty of these horses. Many of them came into this contest on the back of maiden wins and the step into graded company, at such a fast early pace, simply found them out. The eye catcher was the 3rd placed Project Ace who closed all the way to the line with the fastest final 3 furlong splits in the race. His late speed figure of 33.89 mph and his run-out speed of 32.95 mph were significantly quicker than both Nearly and Bravaro were able to record. However, his overall top speed figure of 38.87 mph ranked 6th and was 2.15 mph slower than the race best 41.02 mph recorded by Nearly. Project Ace simply could not keep up with the early pace and with half a mile to run he was 2.39s behind the winner. Corey Lanerie accepted his fate and allowed his mount to travel at his own pace. In a race where the winner recorded a finishing speed of 89.7% and the early leader (Cannoneer) recorded just 86%, Project Ace was flattered slightly by the visual impression of his “fast finish” despite the fact that he did quicken slightly by running 13.13s for the final furlong.
There is only one horse to add to the notebook for 2026 and it’s the winner. Nearly was incredibly impressive and Todd Pletcher’s charge looks more than capable of competing at the top level on this evidence. However, I will end this piece with a slight note of caution. The time was good, but not exceptional and the fact that the other 5 runners weren’t able to maintain the pace has perhaps slightly flattered the winner in the final quarter of a mile. In a better race, there is every chance that he may have run a faster time, but we can’t be sure and for now, I’m treating this as a very good horse dominating a field of inexperienced rivals who weren’t ready for this level.