Jonbon
Betfair Ascot Chase (G1)
When Jonbon crossed the line 2s and 9 lengths behind Il Etait Temps in the Betfair Tingle Creek at Sandown in December, he was finished. That run followed on from a very laboured effort in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham a month earlier and despite plugging on to finish 2nd in both races, it did look at the time as if age had caught up with Jonbon. However, the horse clearly hadn’t read that script and since returning to his beloved Ascot, he has revived his fortunes and shown a tremendous amount of heart to deliver both the Clarence House and now the Ascot Chase to add to his already impressive haul of Grade 1 races. Both displays have come on testing ground and any doubts over his need to go up in trip must surely now be dismissed, especially as he has recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field on both occasions. If anything, his stride frequency data might suggest that he would probably stay 3 miles now if they were to give it a try. Visually, both performances could be treated with some caution. In the Clarence House Chase last month, Il Etait Temps didn’t run his race and Jonbon had to work very hard to get the better of Thistle Ask, who was stepping out of handicap company for the first time. In this race he was taking on Pic D’Orhy. A course specialist with a fantastic record in this race, but also an 11-year-old who would probably have preferred a sounder surface and who had run below his best in a couple of starts in November. Those are valid opinions, but I prefer to take a much more optimistic view, especially after reviewing the data and I have my own theories on Jonbon and what he may yet achieve this season.
Pic D’Orhy was clearly trained for this race and whether or not he is quite the force he was a couple of years ago is certainly up for debate, but this was a much better performance than he showed when beaten by Jango Baie in the 1965 Chase in November. In part, that is almost certainly because he wasn’t pestered in front and as a result he was able to get into a decent rhythm in the early stages. He jumped with far more fluency this time, losing an average of 9.2% of his speed over his obstacles this time compared to the 10.2% that he recorded in November, a figure that dipped to 13.3% in the latter stages. Paul Nicholls’ horse is an Ascot specialist and he can be a hard horse to pass when getting his own way and having set even fractions that generated a race with a finishing speed of 101%, he stretched Jonbon from around the halfway mark. However, when winning this race in the past, Pic D’Orhy was able to get his rivals off the bridle before they had turned for home and his speed and fluency on the run out of Swinley Bottom had the race won with a quarter of a mile to run. Despite Harry Cobden’s best efforts on Saturday afternoon, he just couldn’t shake Jonbon off his tail in the same fashion. Jonbon had to work hard, but he was the faster horse in 6 of the last 7 furlongs and once they were into the straight, his stamina and class were enough to keep him moving forwards and he ultimately wore down Pic D’Orhy after jumping the last. Much like the race in January, Jonbon was able to maintain his stride frequency above his race average figure of 2.1 per second in the final half a mile of the contest and his late speed figure of 28.8 mph was simply too much for Pic D’Orhy to repel. Despite meeting a couple of his fences on the wrong stride, Jonbon did produce a more fluent jumping display than he had last month, losing an average of 9.8% of his speed over his obstacles compared to an average loss of 12% in the Clarence House. I’d have to put that down to the fact that racing over the longer trip and going at a slower pace as a result helped him to get over his fences and if he runs in the Ryanair, I’d be far more concerned about his ability to jump at that pace than his ability to stay the trip.
“He doesn’t get the credit that he deserves”. I read that phrase a lot when Jonbon is being discussed and it is probably true. This was yet another Grade 1 success and on soft ground at Ascot, he is almost unbeatable. However, I also have to be very objective when writing this column. The data provided by TPD tells me that he is winning these races with stamina. We can’t measure bravery or class, but what we can measure shows that he is digging deep and galloping on to win strongly run races. His stride frequency averages in the latter stages of his last 2 starts point to the fact that he can find what’s needed in the latter stages of these races, but they also suggest that he is perhaps 7 or 8 lbs below his 2024 peak. He was the fastest horse in 6 of the final 7 furlong splits in the Ascot Chase, but that needs to be treated with the context that he was beating an 11-year-old Pic D’Orhy and a 12-year-old Edwardstone. A top speed of 33.14 mph was faster than those 2 rivals and the late finishing Blow Your Wad, but it seems highly likely that they will be going faster than that in the Ryanair Chase and against younger legs, Jonbon may come up slightly short. He undoubtedly has the stamina for the trip, but whether he can jump fluently enough to maintain the speed and momentum to keep in contention is much more open to question. I haven’t spent too much time looking at the Ryanair Chase and I don’t believe you can until Willie Mullins and the Closutton team make up their mind as to what (if anything) they are going to run in the race. So for now, I will enjoy Jonbon. He has picked himself up off the canvas in the last month and shown that he has plenty left in the tank for the battles up the Ascot hill. We should simply appreciate him for that, rather than thinking about what may or may not happen in a month’s time.