Constitution Hill
It seems that the entire racing fraternity has an opinion on Constitution Hill and what he should do next. I won’t be adding to that here and this will be a much shorter and scientific view of the race as a result. He is now as short as 9/4 with some firms for the Champion Hurdle. I can’t comment on whether or not that is a good price because he has fallen on 3 of his last 4 starts over hurdles and we didn’t learn anything about that situation on Friday evening. So, instead of that I thought it was better to approach this for what it was, a truly remarkable debut performance on the Flat.
This race was essentially organised on behalf of Nicky Henderson to give him an option to run Constitution Hill on the Flat and as a result, we don’t have too many 4-year-old + novice races to compare it to. However, using the TPD Expected Time Database, the first thing that I can say is that a winning time of 2:24.47 was 1.74s,(around 7/8 lengths) quicker than the expected time figure for a class 2 contest over this course and distance. Constitution Hill recorded a top speed figure of 39.95 mph, over 1 mph faster than then next best figure in the race (Tripoli Flyer 38.90 mph). That included closing furlongs of 11.89, 11.31 and 11.81s, each of which were the fastest individual furlong splits in the field and faster than the closing furlongs of Dosman, who won the Class 3 Handicap over a mile 30-minutes earlier carrying 2 lbs less. Constitution Hill reached a race peak stride frequency average of 2.37 per second in the penultimate furlong and it is perhaps possible to think that he could have cleared 40 mph had there been a rival capable of going with him at that point. Having won the handicap off a mark of 86, Dosman had the highest rating of any winner on the card and works as a useful comparison with Constitution Hill. Nicky Henderson’s charge had the higher top speed and late speed figure of the pair and whilst the fact that the race was run at an even early tempo with a finishing speed 109% needs to be taken into account, it needs to be acknowledged that he showed far more speed than he had when winning over hurdles. When winning the Christmas hurdle at Kempton in 2024, Constitution Hill recorded a top speed of 36.78 mph. When he won the Unibet Hurdle in 2025, his top speed was 35.19 mph. In the Fighting Fifth in 2022 he clocked 36.37 mph, in the Champion Hurdle in 2023 he recorded 35.82 mph. This was a race run on the tapeta and so it really is only a mild comparison that can be made between this race and his previous efforts on the turf, but we can also say with some confidence that on an all-weather surface described as standard, he went faster than he has ever gone before. If he had lined up in the mile handicap, there is every chance that he would have won that too.
It’s a difficult performance to try and put a number on. On the one hand, the 3rd placed Gambino has an official rating of 83 on the Flat after winning a maiden at Gowran Park for Noel Meade last April. He was giving away 7 lbs to Constitution Hill and was beaten 11 lengths, which would give a winners rating of 87. That feels too low. Square Necker had won a Dundalk maiden in December when he beat the 93 rated Nuit giving away 5 lbs. He won by nearly 4 lengths, which would put him close to an Irish mark of 97 and having conceded 5 lbs and finished 9 lengths behind Constitution Hill, that would give the Southwell win a rating 101. That’s closer in my eyes, especially given that Constitution Hill was 2.09s faster over the final 3 furlongs. There won’t be too many horses that make a Flat debut at this level and if they do decide to give him a Flat campaign, he’s unlikely to be ridden for a mark in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot! He has far more speed than most dual purpose horses would be given credit for and there is every reason to think that he can be competitive in Middle Distance pattern races if that is the route they choose to go down. There is a nagging doubt. If we take out Square Necker, this was largely a field of horses from National Hunt yards and on all known form, he held every one of those horses. However, there was more to it than just the race conditions and if he is campaigned on the Flat, he could be real force, even at the age of 9. My advice with this form is to treat it for what it is, a brilliant Flat debut from a superstar of the sport. Racing needs superstar performances like this and that’s what Constitution Hill delivered under Oisin Murphy at Southwell.