Cheltenham 2026 - The Novice Chases
There were 28 races at Cheltenham last week and that left me with a lot of racing to choose from for this week’s column. I watched it all back over the weekend and began to make copious amounts of notes, the vast majority of which will probably prove to be irrelevant by the time October comes around, but there are always things that you can spot when sitting down after the excitement of the festival has begun to subside. I’ve tried to be as objective as possible with my review of the form, but the races that really stood out to me were the pair of Grade 1 Novice Chases. The Arkle and the Brown Advisory would look to be the pieces of form that are most likely to have an impact on the Championship races at the festival in the next couple of years and the top 3 in both races were the ones that I chose to focus on.
Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase
The fences are there to be jumped and that’s what KARGESE did to win the Arkle. I’ll come to the beaten horses in a moment but we should at first add some praise to the winner, who was running a big race at the Cheltenham Festival for the 3rd year in a row. She traveled, she jumped and although she was perhaps slightly the benefactor of some mistakes from her rivals, she galloped through the line with the best run-out speed at 26.37 mph. She recorded a finishing speed of 101% and a winning time of 3:52.35, which was the 2nd fastest time in this race in the last decade, with only Edwardstone (2022) going faster. The ground and the drying conditions played a significant part in that, but Danny Mullins was able to set very even fractions and she met the final 2 fences on the perfect stride, which ultimately proved to be enough. A narrow defeat to Majborough in the 2024 Triumph Hurdle is the only blot on her Cheltenham record and in hindsight, that has proven to be a very strong piece of form. Whether she can translate this Arkle win to Champion Chase form next year, if she even gets the opportunity, is much more open to question but Kargese is a very reliable and likeable mare and when the pressure was on, she delivered.
I had raised some concerns about Lulamba’s speed and jumping when he won at Newbury in February and that did appear to be his achilles heel on Tuesday. He traveled better than I thought he might and his individual furlong splits were never more than half a second behind the leader until he made a mistake at the 2nd last. The pace of a well run 2 mile chase meant that he had very little margin for error and once he got the 2nd last wrong, his race was run. His trainer seemed to imply that this may well be his final start over the minimum trip and the fact that his top speed (36.01 mph) ranked behind Kopek des Bordes and the fact that he was the slowest of the 3 in each of the final 5 furlong splits would look to agree with the view that he is slightly short of the required turn-of-foot at this level over 2 miles. However, he is not a slow horse and it shouldn’t be lost that his final time of 3:53.53, admittedly with decent ground to help, would have been enough to be competitive in every renewal of the Arkle in the last 10 years. If we assume that he sees out the longer trips, his turn-of-foot will be a very useful asset.
Kopek des Bordes. Did a lack of experience over fences beat him? It’s possible, but I thought that he looked close enough to peak fitness and whilst there were a couple of notable errors earlier in the race, he jumped the 2nd last and looked to be the most likely winner. The sectional times do support that theory and it’s noticeable that Kopek des Bordes was the fastest horse in the race in the 4 furlongs that led down to the last fence. He jumped the last and pecked badly, losing all momentum and handing the advantage back to Kargese who is simply too good to be handing such a lead to in the latter stages. He rallied and his final furlong split was only half a second slower than the winner, but the race was run. In a year’s time he seems highly likely to be the best and quickest of these over the 2 mile trip, but the fences need to be jumped too. Kargese did that and Kopek des Bordes did not. Experience will help and it will be no surprise if he is subsequently able to reverse this form, but for now he remains full of potential over fences and his connections will have to wait a little longer to confirm that.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
This is a story of redemption. A pair of horses, both trained by Willie Mullins, both Grade 1 winners earlier in the season and both who came into this race after very disappointing performances in February.
I’ll begin with the winner, KITZBUHEL who got one of the best rides of the week from Harry Cobden. He’s a fast horse and he was able to use that speed to get himself to the front by the time they came to the 3rd fence in front of the enclosures. He was the fastest of the 14 runners for each of the first 3 furlong splits and once getting to the front, this became a masterclass of front-running from Harry Cobden. He kept Kitzbuhel moving forwards whilst also giving his mount room at his fences, presumably to aid him in case he needed to jump to his right as he had in the past. Coming down the hill for the 2nd time the gaps began to close but Kitzbuhel continued to maintain a lead despite the fact that he failed to run the fastest furlong split at any point in the second half of the race. Then came the key moment, the 2nd last. This point in the race should be watched over and over again as an example of how to ride the Cheltenham finish. With Final Demand closing on his inside, Harry Cobden used the stick in his right hand to keep Kitzbuhel straight and by using the stick as his horse took the second last, he kept himself close enough to his nearest challenger to check his momentum. He did something similar on his way to the last and then it was simply a case of driving his mount on. Kitzbuhel responded readily and recorded better late speed (26.11 mph) and run-out speed (26.40 mph) than the runner-up and there really is no reason to think that Final Demand was an unlucky loser.
I wouldn’t necessarily describe him as a Gold Cup horse at this stage and I think he is perhaps best described as a fast horse who can get 3-miles rather than a dour stayer. However, if I was looking for an angle to play Kitzbuhel, the King George at Kempton looks to be the ideal race for him and I wouldn’t put anyone off having a play on that as a long range punt.
Final Demand may not have won the race but he has redeemed his reputation. Having been a shorter price for this race in December than he was at the off, it was very difficult to assess his chance. However, having settled directly behind the leader, he has managed to keep himself in touch with what looks to be a faster horse for the best part of 3 miles. Jumping the last he had every chance and the fact that his time for the final quarter of a mile was just 0.14s slower than the winner shows how close he came. I don’t think Kitzbuhel keeping him on the inside of the final 2 fences made a significant difference and he appeared to have every chance when getting on terms after the last. He was well placed and the ground conditions clearly gave the front-runners an advantage as the first 2 were at the head of the field throughout. However, with conditions probably quicker than ideal, Final Demand has returned to form and ran a better race than he managed when he was beaten by The New Lion at the festival last season. There is perhaps a suggestion that Final Demand ducked out of the fight in the final furlong, but I don’t think that’s the case. He was faster than the winner in the penultimate furlong (15.71s) but only clocked 16.24s for the final split, which ranked 5th. If anything, the fast pace may have found him out and I would take the view that he emptied on the run up to the line.
Willie Mullins has retired one of his greatest performers in the last week. Trying to replace a horse like Galopin des Champs is going to be an almost impossible task, but Kitzbuhel and Final Demand have at least raised their heads above the parapet as candidates for the best 3 mile chases next season.
I was going to end this review there, but I have to give a few lines to the performance of Salver. Having been away from the others at the start and also then being caught flat footed when the starter let them go, he was in entirely the wrong place at the rear of the field by the time that they reached halfway. As much as 2s behind the winner with 6 furlongs to run, Salver responded gamely to run the fastest splits for the 22nd and 23rd furlongs to finish within 0.7s at the line. This was a huge performance and I must admit that I had him “pigeon-holed” as a soft ground specialist. He came into this race with an official rating of 149 and whilst the handicapper may have a say on that on Tuesday morning, he could well be capable of winning a big handicap target on this evidence if his connections choose to go that way.