WEATHERBYS CHESHIRE OAKS
Chester - 6th May 2026
This race is a key trial for the Oaks and given that the winning connections won the race with Minnie Hauk before going on to win at Epsom last season, there will be inevitable comparisons made with this year’s winner AMELIA EARHART. I’ll make a start with some of the basics. She ranked 1st for her Top Speed (40.58 mph), 1st for her Late Speed (38.59 mph) and she ran the fastest final furlong in 11.28s, the fastest split of any horse at any point in the race, galloping through the line with a run-out speed of 37.71 mph (also ranked 1st) to win by 2 lengths. She was the best horse on the day, regardless of the way the race panned out and everything would point to the fact that she should improve again when going up to 12 furlongs next time. Her average stride frequency reached its peaks in the 10th furlong, but in a race that developed slowly, where all 5 runners recorded a finishing speed above 105%, this probably shouldn’t be taken as confirmation that she will stay further. However, I would point to the fact that she relaxed in the middle part of the race as a much better source of encouragement for Epsom. The course is so undulating that the need to conserve energy on the climb to the top of the hill and save something for the long straight once they come around Tattenham corner is crucial. Chester is not Epsom, but it serves as a good trial for a balanced horse and I liked the fact that her average stride frequency figure hovered between 2.11 and 2.18 strides per second in the middle part of the contest. She conserved energy throughout the first circuit and whilst I will acknowledge that the race was set up for her by her stablemate, the Oaks could well be run under similar circumstances and she has clearly improved significantly from 2 to 3. Whilst it is impossible to put a quantitative number on how much difference the hood and blinkers may have made, what we can say with a lot of authority is that Amelia Earhart raced very efficiently and that bodes very well for next month.
If we compare Amelia Earhart to the runner-up, I’m The One, it really is a “chalk and cheese” comparison. This was just her 2nd start and it came just 3 weeks after she made an impressive winning debut at Newbury, but the way that she raced around Chester would have to raise some serious concerns about her chances in the Oaks, if indeed she takes her chance. She stumbled out of the gate and took over a second longer than the winner to reach 30 mph. That forced her to use up some early energy to get herself into terms and having raised her average stride frequency to 2.27 per second in the 2nd furlong, the highest frequency figure in the field at that point, it was an awkward start. The winner recorded an average stride length of 23.82 ft, which reached a peak of 25.17 ft, a rise of 5.7% above her race average. By contrast, I’m The One had an average stride length of 23.78 ft, but that reached a peak of 26.41 ft, a rise of 10.6% and that peak came when straightened up in the final furlong. Her mid-race stride frequency figures ranged from 2.11 to 2.21 per second. She clearly lost any chance that she had when drifting wide around the final turn and this was probably a combination of the track not suiting and her lack of experience working against her. However, this was a very inefficient run and it would take a considerable leap of faith to think that Epsom and the unique scenario that presents is going to suit. There was just 0.04 ft between the race average stride length figures of the first pair and just 0.02 strides per second between their race average frequency figures, but the winner recorded her numbers with a consistent pace and stride whereas I’m The One got there via a rollercoaster of peaks and troughs in her stride data. I won’t give up on I’m The One. Her post-race data is very close to that of Amelia Earhart, who is now the Ante Post favourite for the Oaks, but given the way she traveled and appeared not to handle the track, I think a switch to a more conventional galloping track will be the key. Amelia Earhart would appear to be the most likely winner of the Oaks and she sets a very clear standard in the division based on the form we have seen so far.