AL BASTI EQUIWORLD DUBAI DANTE STAKES (G2)
York - 14th May 2026
The last of the recognised trials for the Derby has definitely produced a classic contender. We hadn’t seen Item (Andrew Balding) since he won a novice race under a penalty at Bath at the end of September. That form hadn’t worked out particularly well and the placed horses have generally struggled to make their mark. However, Item was in complete control of the race from the moment that the stalls opened and ran the fastest split for 3 of the last 4 furlongs as he came clear to win by over 3 lengths. Having missed the Futurity at Doncaster in October on account of the ground, he was a somewhat unknown quantity heading into the Dante Stakes, although an SP of 11/2 in a competitive field would suggest that he was thought capable in some quarters. He is certainly capable and this was one of the more polished performances that we have seen on the Knavesmire this week.
He settled behind the pace for Colin Keane, who allowed his mount to gather stride at his own pace as he recorded opening splits of 18.40 and 12.64s, which both ranked 7th of the 8 runners. The pace set by Wayne Lordan aboard Action was a relatively even one, with all 8 runners crossing the line with finishing speeds between 100 and 104% and as he began to lift the pace with half a mile to run, it was clear that Item was going to be his biggest challenger. On the whole, the centre of the track at York has looked to be the place to be, although the handicap winners of Klassleader and Jakajaro have suggested that coming to the stands side is not the hindrance that it may have appeared at times during the week. With that in mind, I won’t be paying too much notice to the fact that Action and Item came down the centre of the course as the rest of the field moved to their right hand side with a quarter of a mile to run. Instead, I would highlight the fact that Action was in a smooth rhythm in front and that he had clearly improved for the benefit of the run at Sandown, especially with the tongue-tie removed. He readily reversed form with both Al Zanati and Wise Prince from that Classic trial and having put some distance between himself and his stablemate (Christmas Day) he may well have earned himself a shot at the Derby as the stables 2nd or 3rd string. However, he has a considerable amount of work to do to try and reverse the form with Item, who was the fastest horse in each of the final 4 furlongs and who recorded a late speed figure of 35.56 mph, the only horse to top 35 mph for that metric as he ran out a ready winner.
The markets have reacted to this performance and at the time of writing, Item is a best priced 6/1 for the Derby. On the basis that we know he is going to run in the race, that is probably fair. His stride data would suggest that Epsom will be fine, as he recorded a peak average stride length of 25.65 ft, also a race best figure in the Dante. The stride length is important if he can get a clear run in the closing stages at Epsom, but there is perhaps a slight suggestion that he will need to relax better at Epsom. He recorded an average stride frequency of 2.2 strides per second over the entire race at York, but measured furlong to furlong that average did not drop below 2.15 strides per second. For some comparison, Benvenuto Cellini recorded a peak low of 2.0 strides per second at Chester, although his race average came in lower overall too. It’s a very minor point and not one that I would press home with any great authority given that this was just his 3rd career start and his first for over 200 days. The alternative point to make is that Item has a very consistent stride frequency, which varied between a minimum of 2.15 per second up to a race peak of 2.26 per second. The even gallop set by the runner-up may have helped that and he did have a larger variance in stride when winning at Bath (2.21 to 2.38) but if he were to get a smooth run round at Epsom, that controlled stride should help him to see out the 12 furlong trip. Relaxing on the climb to the top of the hill and conserving energy is a crucial point for any Derby winner. Getting a clear run round requires a certain degree of luck on the downs, but if Item had that clear run, he should be one of the main players.
If asked to rank the form, I would rate the Chester trial winners slightly ahead of Item at this stage. If Constitution River were to run at Epsom, I would assume that he would shorten from his current market price and that would leave Item as a solid 3rd favourite. That looks right and he did everything right to win at York in a competitive race. Action helped to set the race up and did give him a target to aim at, but Item was able to make up over a second on him over the final half a mile despite the runner-up having race fitness on his side. The team at Ballydoyle will presumably be able to use Action as a guide as to where their main contenders compare with Item, but if there is to be a British trained winner of the Derby in 2026, it is almost certainly him.