Japan Racing Association Derby-Trial (G3)
Baden Baden 6th June 2026
SEGURO certainly explored all areas of the track at Baden-Baden to win the Japan Racing Association Derby Trial (G3) on Saturday afternoon, but despite a significant drift to his right inside the final furlong, the son of Romanised still ran out a relatively comfortable winner. Ridden by Benjamin Marie, the 3-year-old sat behind the early pace set by Waldares before being asked to make his challenge with 300m to run. In such a small field, it is perhaps not surprising to see that the race developed into a relatively tactical affair, but although Waldares enjoyed an easy time of things in front, he simply couldn’t repel the late speed of the winner, who recorded a race best late speed figure of 61.9 km/h. I will add that both Lommi (4th) and All Square (5th) were within 0.5% with their own respective late speed figures, but when we allow for the fact that Seguro gave a way a lot of ground by drifting towards the stands side in the final 200m, it would suggest that the best horse did win this German Derby trial.
Andreas Suborics will now surely run Seguro in the German Derby next month, but what does this data from the trial tell us about his chances in the big race itself? A winning time of 2:05.30 ranked 7th in terms of the times for this race since it was switched to Baden Baden in 2016. Given the size of the field and the way this race developed that’s probably par for the course, but what about the horse himself? Seguro was 4th behind Asker on his latest start, but the step up to 2,000m (from 1,700m last time) was clearly in his favour and he saw out this trip readily despite his late antics. An average stride length of 7.10m, which reached a peak of 7.38m, would be above the TPD observed average figure for a winner over the German Derby trip at Hamburg (6.8m). His average stride frequency (2.3 strides per second) and his late speed were also above the figures for the German Derby averages too, but it is important to note that the track at Baden Baden offers a better opportunity for the horses to stretch. We can say that with relative authority given that our average race figures at this track are higher than those recorded in Hamburg and so it is not as straightforward as assuming he can repeat these figures in the German Derby and that will be sufficient. Seguro was quicker than 2 horses to directly chase him home, but Yacomo (2nd) and Waldares (3rd) have both had their limitations exposed and it’s not hard to think that there will be bigger dangers in the Group 1 on 5th July than there were on Saturday. A race is there to be won and that’s exactly what Seguro did and he has certainly improved for the extra distance, but the overall impression that I got from the data on Saturday is that he will need to do so again if he is to be competitive in the German Derby next month. He has earned his chance, but this was a Group 3 race and he appears to have run to that level. Winning a Group 1 German Derby is an entirely different question for Seguro to answer.
Predicting the future is ultimately what horse racing is about. We will come to look at Seguro’s chances in the German Derby in a couple of weeks when the full field is known, but could we have predicted his victory on Saturday? Well, quite possibly yes. That may sound like “after timing” to a certain degree but I have included our pre-race infographic below which expands on my case.
At the top of the infographic above you will see a set of average figures. These are taken from the TPD database and show the average figures recorded by winners at this level over this course and distance across our range of metrics. If we compare those figures to the metrics recorded by Seguro on his latest start at Krefeld at the end of April, it shows that his data did offer clues to suggest that he was capable of performing at or indeed above the required level to win this Derby Trial. As I mentioned earlier, if we take his performance on Saturday in isolation, he has shown at least in part that he may yet be capable of running to the required level to win the German Derby itself, but until we know all of the entries and factors like the draw and ground, we can’t be certain that he will be the only horse to tick those boxes. I’d be happy enough to suggest that he is the most likely winner of the race to be trained in Germany, but whether that is enough next month is a question that will have to wait for a few weeks.