Alabama Stakes Presented By Keeneland Sales - Grade 1
Saratoga - 22nd August 2026
I can’t really make any excuses for Counting Stars’ defeat in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday afternoon. She had every chance from the front of a steadily run race and simply couldn’t repel the closing efforts of MY GUN’S LOADED and Measure. The winning time of 2:04.87 was slower than our expected average figure for a winner of this race and a finishing speed of 97.9% from the winner and 98.9% from the runner-up would point to the fact that this was not an end-to-end test of stamina. After a very busy campaign in 2026 which has included a 3rd placed finish in the Kentucky Oaks and victories in both the Acorn Stakes and the American Oaks. She has an excellent record at Saratoga and on her 11th start in less than 12 months, this may simply have been one race too many for Mark Casse’s filly. I’m going to leave my analysis of Counting Stars there because I don’t want her performance to undermine the result. My Gun’s Loaded may have been the fresher horse, but she took the step from an allowance claimer into a Grade 1 in her stride and Chad Brown’s filly is a highly promising 3-year-old in her own right.
My Gun’s Loaded had finished very strongly when winning over a mile here in July, recording a run-out speed of 33 mph as she cantered to a comfortable success. Having been sent off at a very short price, she finished with the fastest split for each of the final 3 furlongs, but it was still clear that she was going to be required to take a significant step forward to win in this company. Settling behind the early pace, My Gun’s Loaded was pushed up on the outside of Counting Stars around the turn and once alongside, she found plenty for Manny Franco as she recorded a race best 12.42s for the 8th furlong. She had the highest stride frequency figure in the field at that point and having been carried into the centre of the course, she had to cover more ground than the eventual runner-up. Once in front, the visual impression I got was that My Gun’s Loaded was idling slightly and as Measure began to close on the far rail, she did appear to stretch again to get her head in front on the line. Measure certainly recorded the better late speed figure (35.2 mph) and her closing splits of 12.43 and 12.96s meant that she was nearly half a second quicker than My Gun’s Loaded was over the final quarter of a mile. Both the winner and the runner-up were stepping up to 10 furlongs for the first time and the extra distance did appear to bring out improvement in both of them.
The difficulty that I have when assessing this form is that the winning time was the slowest since Stopchargingmaria won in 2014 for Todd Pletcher and a finishing speed above 96% from all 6 runners was very sedate for a Grade 1 race on the dirt. Adding in the slow time data and the fact that Counting Stars’ appeared to struggle to finish her race despite being ideally placed means that it is hard to get a real handle on what may or may not have been achieved by the winner. On just her 4th start, this was a superb effort from My Gun’s Loaded, but the runner-up has only got a Churchill Downs maiden win on her CV and she was closing all the way down the home straight. I really like My Gun’s Loaded and she has done little wrong in her career so far, but this race does not tick the data box and as a result, I think it would be wise to exercise some caution with the Alabama Stakes form until we have seen the winner and the runner-up run again.