Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes - Grade 1
Belmont Park, NY - 18th September
“He is one of the most successful horses of the modern era for a reason and that reason is that he finds a way to win races at the highest level. All of his main rivals for the Classic have questions to answer, but on Friday afternoon at Belmont Park, Forever Young answered his”.
Belmont Park is back! Lisa Joy had the honour of being the first winner at the new look Belmont Park, but the crowds hadn’t come to see a turf maiden for the 3-year-olds. The crowd had come to see the redeveloped Belmont Park and in particular, the first equine superstar to step out on to the redesigned course, Forever Young. Yoshito Yahagi’s charge is one of the modern greats and having won Grade 1 races across 3 different continents, he was the headline act on the opening afternoon and he certainly didn’t disappoint the fans who had made their way to Belmont Park to see him.
It is far too early to form any strong conclusions about the track and how it will ride in the weeks, months and years ahead. However, if you had offered Yoshito Yahagi and Ryusei Sakai the opportunity to describe their perfect setup for Forever Young, this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes would have been it. Phileas Fogg set a fair early pace, with the Breeders’ Cup Classic Champion always within a couple of lengths of his hind quarters and Ryusei Sakai always had his mount within 0.4s of the lead and travelling comfortably, The Suburban Stakes winner could only take them so far and as they began to round the far turn, it became clear that he was beginning to fade. In an ideal world, Forever Young may well have benefitted from getting a longer lead into the race, but once in front, the Japanese Champion’s class told as he asserted in the penultimate furlong, recording a race best 12.02s split as he put his rivals to the sword. Stretching out to a peak average stride length of 24.86 ft, just below the 25.13 ft peak that he reached when winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar last November, Forever Young was in a league of his own and he will now head to Keeneland with every chance of retaining his crown. A top speed figure of 39.39 mph probably doesn’t give an accurate reflection of how dominant Forever Young was and I think it is important to recognise that he was able to win this Grade 1 race by over half a second, despite being little more than coaxed along by his jockey inside the final furlong.
At this early stage with the new Belmont Park, it is very hard to give any kind of accurate assessment of his in-race metrics and how it might compare in the months ahead, but Forever Young came to New York to get ready for the defence of his Breeders’ Cup Crown and he certainly achieved that aim. His Average Speed figure of 37.12 mph got within 1% of the 37.44 mph that he recorded when winning at Del Mar and given that this was his first start since March, he would be entitled to improve again between now and the end of October. Phileas Fogg and the patiently ridden Stars and Stripes are unlikely to contest the Breeders’ Cup Classic, let alone challenge the likes of Forever Young, whilst Baeza did what Baeza does and threw away his chance with a slow start. One day Bill Mott’s charge may consent to break on terms, rather than giving away nearly a second to his rivals over the opening furlong, but even if he does, he seems unlikely to challenge a horse with the class and calibre of Forever Young. Our data summary above of the in-race metrics recorded by the winner might suggest that this was a slightly below par performance. It would be correct to say that Stars and Stripes had a higher top speed figure and Baeza had the best late speed figure in the field, but that creates a slightly false impression and neither of them were in the same class as the winner. In what looked to be little more than second gear, Forever Young dispatched them readily.
Without Sovereignty, the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes may not have answered all of the questions that it had promised to do a month ago, but that doesn’t mean we didn’t learn anything from it. Belmont Park’s redevelopment represents a major investment in US Racing and it has been completed to bring the best racing and the best racehorses to New York. Forever Young ticked both of those boxes and whatever happens in the Breeders’ Cup Classic next month, it will take an exceptional performance to take away his crown. There is no doubt in my mind that the Breeders’ Cup Classic will represent a much sterner test and as his 2024 form and runs in Dubai have shown, Forever Young can be vulnerable to a fast early pace and a strong emphasis on stamina. However, he is one of the most successful horses of the modern era for a reason and that reason is that he finds a way to win races at the highest level. All of his main rivals for the Classic have questions to answer, but on Friday afternoon at Belmont Park, Forever Young answered his.