Ontario Derby (Grade 3)
Woodbine - 17th October 2026
Things may not have worked out for Luster in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, but the form of her victory in the King’s Plate at Woodbine in August continues to look strong and FIRE AND WINE has certainly been playing his part to boost that form line. A winner of the Breeders’ Stakes at the end of September, he returned to the dirt and dropped down to 9 furlongs to win Saturday’s Grade 3 Ontario Derby under another enterprising ride from Jalon Samuel. Sent forwards from stall 3, it was no surprise to see Fire And Wine lead the field into the first turn after taking less than 5s to reach 30 km/h when the gates opened. From there, Samuel was able to control the pace as his mount reached the first furlong pole more than a 3rd of a second faster than any of his rivals. A consistent striding horse, Fire and Wine maintained the gallop with an average stride frequency figure above 2.15 per second down the back straight. That pace, which saw him reached the 3 furlong pole in under 72s, was simply too fast for most of his rivals and in race where the entire field recorded finishing speed figures below 96%, the horse with the confirmed stamina for further than this 9 furlong trip was always likely to come home best, especially when ridden from the front.
Fire and Wine is growing on me. Earlier in the season, he looked like a big cumbersome type who was in desperate need of an extreme stamina test. I think that is still the case and the slightly pronounced action of his front legs would add to my view that he is more likely to outstay his rivals rather than sprint past them. However, he won the Coronation Futurity Stakes over 9 furlongs as a juvenile last year and the switch to front running tactics midway through 2026 has really worked. A 3rd placed finish in the King’s Plate behind Luster was a fine effort and he has now backed that up with both a Breeders’ Stakes and an Ontario Derby win. Although beaten in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie, a protracted battle with Keepmypowderdry for the early lead is a valid excuse for his tired finish and he readily reversed the form from that race with Military Time on Saturday evening. I’m reluctant to “pigeon-hole” a 3-year-old as a specific type, but with an average stride length that has reached beyond 25 ft on each of his last 3 starts at Woodbine and been the longest stride figure in the field on each occasion, there is no doubt that making the running suits Fire and Wine best.
A winning time of 1:50.80 was under the expected average figure for a winner over this course and distance, but in the last 10 years, only the 2025 winner Borealis Trail has recorded a slower winning time in the Ontario Derby. That would temper enthusiasm for this form slightly and our Pace Chart shows that from the 3 furlong pole onwards, the winner was below our expected par. Having allowed Fire and Wine to dominate in front, his rivals were given a very difficult assignment to try and run him down, especially as he was unlikely to stop. A race best penultimate furlong split of 13.0s sealed the deal and if able to lead, Fire and Wine looks to be a very difficult horse to pass. His trainer, Zeljko Krcmar said post-race that “He doesn’t know how good he is. Everything I try, he does it. Now he has proved his point, he just played with those horses and a mile and a half will suit perfectly”. (Source: BloodHorse). A trip to the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes in December seems likely now and if the draw is kind and Fire and Wine is able to lead, he seems likely to be a short-priced favourite to make it 3 wins in a row after this victory.