The Japanese Challenge

Breeders' Cup 2026
Forever Young and Ryusei Sakai win for owner Susumu Fujita and trainer Yoshito Yahagi. Del Mar 1-November-2025 Breeders Cup Classic. Healy Racing-focusonracing.com

In 2025, in the late autumn sunshine at Del Mar, Forever Young made history when he became the first Japanese trained winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Japanese racing has come a long way since Taiki Blizzard became the first Japanese horse to run at the meeting when he came in last of 13 in the 1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Marche Lorraine (Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2021) and Loves Only You (Fillies & Mares Turf 2021) have also added their name to the winner’s rosters at the Breeders’ Cup for Japan, along with a host of top 3 finishers in the last 5 seasons. Japanese Racing is certainly on the rise and with that in mind, our analyst Adam Mills has looked through some of the key data for the leading Japanese contenders at the Breeders’ Cup 2026 in Keeneland.

T O Elvis (Daisuke Takayanagi)

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

On paper, this looks to be a difficult assignment. Englishman (Cherie DeVaux) has looked to be the best horse in the US over this trip and he is 4 from 4 when tackling trips of 7 furlongs or less. He ran the fastest time of any stakes winner in the US over 7 furlongs this year when he won the Woody Stephens Stakes at Saratoga in June and he has added a second Grade 1 success in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial at the same track since then. He has plenty of early speed and has recorded stride frequency averages above 2.5 per second when coming out of the gate in both Grade 1 wins to date. His early speed gets plenty of his rivals in trouble and it will be a very tall order to try and keep pace with him, but if there is a horse to cause the upset in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, then our data would suggest that it might be T O Elvis. He has already won over 7 furlongs in the US this year when he won the Churchill Downs Stakes at the Kentucky Derby meeting under Ryusei Sakai. Despite racing 4 wide around the turn, he powered away in the closing stages, reaching a late speed figure of 38.27 mph as he recorded a winning time of 1:20.49. That was the fastest ever winning time in the Churchill Downs Stakes when it has been run over 7 furlongs and only Englishman has run a better time figure in a stakes contest over this distance so far in 2026. We only have one piece of evidence on offer, but it’s a very good piece of evidence and the data from Churchill Downs would suggest that the long striding T O Elvis should finish his race better than Englishman, if he can find enough speed in the early stages to keep within a few lengths of the favourite. At Churchill Downs in May, T O Elvis took 33.71s to cover the opening 3 furlongs. Although it needs to be noted that we are making a time comparison across different tracks, at Saratoga in June Englishman took 32.67s to cover his opening 3 furlongs in the Woody Stephens Stakes. Englishman has run sub-13s furlongs at the end of both victories at Saratoga and so he isn’t likely to stop. A gap of one second at the end of the 3rd furlong would represent a gap of around 6 lengths, which will leave T O Elvis with a lot of work to do. However, he is a multiple winner over 6 furlongs in Japan and should at least have enough speed to be one of the main dangers when they turn into the home straight at Keeneland. If close enough, his stride data from Churchill Downs, which registered him reaching a peak average of 26.09 ft, would give him a decent chance of running Englishman down. Even allowing for the lofty reputation of the Breeders’ Cup Classic Champion Forever Young, I think T O Elvis has claims to be the best chance of a Japanese winner at this year’s meeting in Keeneland.

Lord Fons (Shogo Yasuda)

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Englishman and T O Elvis have the 3 fastest times over 7 furlongs in 2026 between them and so this is probably going to be a very difficult task for Lord Fons. He has won 8 of his 22 career starts including victory over Wilson Tesoro in the Listed Sakitama Hai at Urawa when he was last seen in June. A winning time of 1:25.30, at an average speed of 36.9 mph. It’s not easy to compare the different dirt surfaces around the world on a direct basis, but as a comparison, on their latest starts in the US, Englishman and T O Elvis have recorded average speed figures of 39.03 mph and 39.14 mph. On that basis, things are likely to happen a lot quicker for Lord Fons than he has been used to in Japan and in the last 2 years, I couldn’t find an average speed figure for Lord Fons better than 38 mph. He has won plenty of races at Listed and Grade 3 level and is an admirable horse for his connections, but the step into a race at a level this high, may prove to be a step too far based on the timing data we have.

Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi)

Breeders’ Cup Classic

The Champion. A winner on 3 continents who has already added a 2nd Saudi Cup to his impressive CV this year. He recorded a top speed of 41.8 mph when winning this race last season and hasn’t finished outside the first 3 in a very long time. His victory over Romantic Warrior in the 2025 Saudi Cup was one of the most impressive performances that TPD has ever had the privilege to record and there is no doubt that he is the horse to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic as he bids for a historic defence of his crown. He won as he liked in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at the newly reopened Belmont Park in September, recording a race best last speed figure of 35.3 mph as he won in little more than a canter under Ryusei Sakai. If he does have a weakness, it is perhaps his stride length, which is yet to exceed a race average figure of 25 ft in the 8 previous races that we have been able to record data for Forever Young. That has left him slightly vulnerable in the past. His defeats in Dubai can be excused by the fact that no horse has yet completed the Saudi Cup/Dubai World Cup double, but when he has been beaten on US soil, it has come in races where the finishing speeds have been below 95%. With the presence of Magnitude and Knightsbridge in the field, there is likely to be a stronger early pace than there was at Del Mar a year ago, but we can never really write off Forever Young. The list of horses who were headed by Romantic Warrior and still got up to win is very short and yet a race best run-out speed of 32.86 mph proves that there was no fluke about that 2025 result in Riyadh. It’s impossible to imagine that he won’t run his race and if the pace is suitable, history could yet beckon for Yoshito Yahagi’s charge.

T O Password (Daisuke Takayanagi)

Breeders’ Cup Classic

T O Password has been to the US before and he certainly wasn’t disgraced by finishing 5th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby. He reached a top speed of 40.85 mph on that occasion and both his late speed (33.91 mph) and his run-out speed (31.56 mph) were within 4% of the figures run by the winner and his split times were 0.06s faster than Mystik Dan over the last 3 furlongs. That was a long time ago and he is perhaps better over this slightly shorter trip, but it would offer some hope that he will handle both the travelling and the adjustment to racing on the US dirt. He was last seen finishing 3rd in the G3 Elm Stakes at Sapporo in his native Japan, beaten just over 2 lengths by Luxor Cafe. That form would give him something to find with the US horses in the Classic even with the plum draw in stall 1. If he can match his best form, T O Password should at least be competitive as far as the top of the home stretch, but Forever Young has much stronger claims.

Deep Monster (Yasutoshi Ikee)

Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

If we simply look at his overall form, Deep Monster has something to find with the leading European contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He was soundly beaten by Calandagan (Francis-Henri Graffard) in last year’s Japan Cup and at the time of writing each of the first 6 horses in the market for this race are Grade 1 winners this season. However, there is one piece of form which makes Deep Monster stand out. He went to Sha Tin for the Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup in May where he finished 3rd, beaten 2 lengths by Romantic Warrior. It would prove to be Romantic Warrior’s final run and the remainder of the field have yet to win a race since, but getting within 2 lengths of Romantic Warrior at Sha Tin is easily a career best. Having raced in 3rd, he was ideally placed at halfway, but Romantic Warrior leaned across him slightly and that left him short of room. He was unlikely to have won, but he finished full of running and it was only inside the final furlong that Romantic Warrior was able to pull away with a closing split that was 0.25s quicker. It was a huge effort and after an encouraging run in the Kyoto Daishoten earlier this month, he will head to the Breeders’ Cup Turf with an outside chance.

Lugal (Haruki Sugiyama)

Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile

The run over a mile is an interesting angle with Lugal, who has largely been campaigned over shorter trips. He has bumped heads with the likes of Ka Ying Rising, Satono Reve and Almeraq in the last 2 years. His 2nd placed finish in the Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup Night in March was close to a career best effort, but his form hasn’t quite hit the same heights since. He finished 8th in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, beaten 4 lengths. He raced alongside Almeraq in the early stages and briefly hit the front inside the final quarter of a mile with a 4th furlong split of 10.84s. He couldn’t sustain that effort and faded into 8th, but it was a solid run against the European horses and having made his challenge earlier than most, he may have finished closer had Katsuma Sameshima held on for longer. A top speed figure of 42.14 mph ranked 3rd and would suggest he will at least be able to get into a prominent position in this full field. He hasn’t run over a trip this far since 2022 and never on turf, so there is a certain amount of guesswork involved about whether it will suit. His stride data at Ascot, which included an average stride frequency figure of 2.43 strides per second would point more towards the sprint trips, but the mile on the turf course at Keeneland is not as stamina sapping as some of the European and Asian courses that he has been running over, so it may well be within range. Notable Speech has certainly achieved a very high standard and he is the horse that they have to beat, but the experiment over this distance is an interesting one and it’s not impossible to think that this scenario could suit a horse like Lugal who has plenty of sprinting experience on his side.

Ask Ikigomi (Hideaki Fujiwara)

Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile

Ask Ikigomi is very much an unknown quantity. He brings new form lines into the Breeders’ Cup Mile and having been drawn best of the 2 Japanese trained runners, he looks to be in the ideal place if he is able to be competitive with the Europeans. A final time of 1:31.50 in the Grade 1 NHK Mile Cup in Tokyo back in May would point to an average speed above 39 mph. That would at least suggest that he has the necessary speed for a test like this and when we compare that average speed to those of Notable Speech (38.31 mph) and True Love (37.84 mph) on their best form in 2026. A morning line price of 20/1 is probably reflective of the fact that Ask Ikigomi has yet to race outside of Japan and as a result, we really can’t be sure how his form will translate. This may be a step too far, but his times in Japan do suggest that he at least has the speed to be competitive.