Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff Preview
I would be reluctant to call any race a match. There are a few contests over the Breeders’ Cup weekend that would look to be two horse races, at least in the early markets, but perhaps none more so than the Distaff on Saturday evening. When the market is headed by a filly like Nitrogen, who has found only Sovereignty too good this season, it can be a tall order to find an angle to take her on, but what can the data tell us about her and the challenges she may face in the Distaff this year?
Is Nitrogen simply too good?
The answer to that question could well be yes. Mark Casse’s filly has already won at Grade 1 level and was comfortably ahead of her main market rival (Fully Subscribed) when she won the Ogden Phipps Stakes at Saratoga in June. She won that race with a winning margin of over 2s and completed a clean sweep of our in-race speed metrics in the process. The next 3 horses to chase her home have all gone on to win at graded level since and as a piece of form, it looks to be one of the best races from the Summer season at Saratoga. She recorded the longest average stride length in the field on that occasion (24.82 ft) and reached a peak average stride frequency of 2.43 per second. A long stride and a turn-of-foot makes her hard to beat, especially against her own sex and although she was beaten by Sovereignty in the Whitney Stakes, she emerged with an enormous amount of credit. Having attempted to make all of the running, she was still in front at the quarter mile pole, but Sovereignty’s relentless late speed (35.72 mph) proved too strong. To her immense credit, she held on for 2nd place despite drifting into the middle of the track with a tired finishing speed figure of 93%. That race could have left its mark, but instead Nitrogen would go on to win the G2 Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park. We simply don’t have enough data on the new track at Belmont Park to form strong opinions on the form yet, but it did at least prove that Nitrogen was over her exertions from Saratoga. She sets a very clear standard and each of the in-race metrics that she recorded at Belmont Park are above the TPD expected average figures for a stakes winner over the course and distance of Saturday’s Distaff at Keeneland.
She has been to the Breeders’ Cup twice already and failed to come home with the first prize. She is a much better horse on the dirt than she is on the turf, so the defeat behind Lake Victoria when she was a Juvenile can be excused, but the data doesn’t offer any excuses for last year’s defeat in this race. She had every chance as they turned for home, but simply couldn’t live with the long striding Scylla, who pulled clear with a closing quarter of a mile that was 0.74s quicker than Nitrogen could manage. She has appeared to be a better horse as a four-year-old and that defeat came at the end of a long three-year-old campaign, but it would be a slight doubt. The question is not whether Nitrogen can win because she has already proven herself to be a Grade 1 performer. The question is whether Nitrogen will run her race and whether any of her rivals are going to be able to find the necessary improvement to beat her if she does?
Has Fully Subscribed improved since June?
If we take the form from the Ogden Phipps Stakes literally, then Fully Subscribed has a lot of work to do. She was over 2s behind Nitrogen when they crossed the line at Saratoga and was over a second slower in the final furlong alone (13.38s). However, since that defeat, Chad Brown’s charge has won all 3 starts including a pair of Grade 1 victories in the Personal Ensign and Juddmonte Spinster Stakes, the latter coming over the Distaff course and distance earlier this month. On that occasion, she beat Counting Stars in a 3-runner contest and probably wasn’t tested to the same level that she will be on Saturday afternoon, but it built on a promising display at Saratoga where she romped to a 9 length success in late August. Closing splits of 12.36 and 12.86s were more than 1.5s faster than any of her rivals as she won in little more than a canter. A variance of just 0.03 strides per second between her minimum average and peak stride frequency would suggest that she landed that first Grade 1 success whilst running well within herself. A winning time of 1:49.23 was the slowest in the Personal Ensign Stakes since Close Hatches won for Bill Mott in 2014 and a finishing speed of 96.7% would suggest that whilst she won easily, she was able to do so in a race run slightly below the expected averages for a Grade 1 race on the dirt. The winning time was also outside the top 10 performances on the clock for the 9 furlong trip at Saratoga in 2026 and more than 2s slower than Nitrogen had been when they met in June. Fully Subscribed has run 3 very similar time figures for the 9 furlong trip at Saratoga this year (just 0.40s between the 3 runs), but her victories have come in the absence of Nitrogen and that would be the obvious concern. Nitrogen is a fast horse from the gate and has covered the opening 2 furlongs of her last 2 starts in Grade 1 company in under 24s. If she does that again, which seems the most logical start to the race at this stage, it may well stretch Fully Subscribed and that could well lead to a similar outcome as in their previous meeting.
Can anything else cause an upset?
Super Corredora sits 3rd in the early markets. She won the G2 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita in September under Joel Rosario by half a second and she should take a significant step forward for what was her first outing since March. The form of her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that she won in Del Mar last year has worked out extremely well and she looked to be closer to that level of form at Santa Anita than she had been earlier in the year. Having made most of the running at Del Mar last year, it is worth noting that there were faster finishers than Super Corredora and her late speed figure of 32.95 mph ranked only 2nd, but it would offer some hope that she may yet be able to add another Grade 1 success to her CV. The problem for Super Corredora is that Nitrogen is likely to be quicker away from the gate and in a competition for the lead, a weight difference of 3 lbs seems unlikely to be enough to keep Super Corredora on terms. She has had a much lighter campaign than most of her rivals and has already proven herself to be capable of beating her elders over this trip. However, as our pre-race graphic shows, she has work to do if she is going to overhaul Nitrogen on Saturday evening.
Regaled has won just 5 of her 24 starts and was nearly 20 lengths behind Nitrogen at Saratoga in June. On the balance of her overall form, she has a lot to find, but she did produce some eye-catching data when 3rd in this race 12-months ago at Del Mar and that could offer an angle for those looking to play the exotics. Although more than 1.4s behind with a quarter of a mile to run, she rallied in the closing stages to finish a “never-nearer” 3rd with race best closing splits and a run-out speed of 34.67 mph. It seems too much to think that she will suddenly be capable of producing the necessary level of form to win a Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but she stayed on strongly to win the G3 Delaware Handicap at the start of the month and could at least run on past the beaten horses to snatch some of the prize money inside the final furlong.
The Verdict
Nitrogen should win this race. Similar comments probably applied last season too, but the data would suggest that she has improved as a 4-year-old and her form from New York this year sets a very clear standard. Her early speed should get her into a prominent position and whilst there are some Fillies and Mares’ in this field with cases to be made, none of them seem likely to finish in the same manner that Sovereignty did in the Whitney Stakes. On that basis, she is hard to oppose and the value may come in looking at the exotic markets rather than the straight win plays. Fully Subscribed has had a very good year, but her victories have come in races that were run to suit and she has a lot of work to do to overturn the Ogden Phipps Stakes form. For that reason, playing both Super Corredora and Regaled to hit the frame could represent better value given the way they are likely to finish in the Keeneland home straight.