Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes 2025
Oisin Murphy made the journey to Saratoga with a plan in mind. On board the Woodbine Summer Stakes winner from last year, he pushed hard to get New Century into a prominent position, eventually winning an early dual with Test Score to track the leader (Tank) into the first turn with opening furlongs of 12.46 and 11.77s (ranked 2nd for the opening furlong). In a race run with a finishing speed of 103%, Murphy must have been reasonably happy as the field turned for home with his mount sitting in the perfect position on the leaders quarters. As much as 2-lengths up on the remainder of the field at the 2-furlong pole, there really aren’t any excuses for the front pair and it seems that a lack of pace in the straight has been their undoing. A top speed of 41.16 mph for New Century ranked only 5th of the 7-runners and unlike the 3 horses to fill the placings, he wasn’t able to run a sub 11-second furlong in the closing stages when it mattered. An average stride length of 24.39 ft was below the race average (ranked 6th) and he may simply be suited by a more galloping race, but through New Century, we can rate this form.
This was a first Grade 1 success for Test Score, but he has been steadily improving and having finished 2nd to Zulu Kingdom in the American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs in May, he certainly wasn’t winning out of turn. On both occasions he has recorded the fastest top speed figure in the race, recording 42.01 mph at Churchill Downs and 42.41 mph in Friday’s victory at Saratoga. After being taken back after the initial battle with New Century for track position, he had to be driven into stride by Manny Franco with 3-furlongs to run and at that point, it appeared that the leaders had slipped the field. However, Test Score recovered with a brilliant closing quarter, where both his average stride frequency (2.40 per second) and his average stride length (7.77m) reached their race peak. A race average stride length of 26.31 ft was 0.82 ft longer than anything else in the field and it is thanks to that long ranging stride that Test Score has been able to run down a pair of leaders who have dictated the fractions in front. The sectional times will suggest that the likes of Luther (3rd) and Final Gambit (6th) have been slightly unlucky and given that the rest of the field finished in a tight bunch behind Test Score, there may be a slight question mark over this form. However, Test Score has shown a remarkable turn-of-foot for such a big horse and he has overcome a significant pace bias to land his first Grade 1 success, confirming the form with New Century from Churchill Downs in the process. It seems unlikely that he will get a similarly sedate pace next time, but the data would suggest that this horse has won in spite of the pace, rather than because of it and if anything, he should improve again if getting a stronger gallop to chase.
The first 6 horses to cross the line have all recorded a run-out speed faster than 37 mph, which is testament to the pace and the way the race panned out behind the leaders. Luther finished 3rd for Kieran Shoemark and Charlie Fellowes despite running the fastest individual split for the 6th, 7th and 8th furlongs, a run which included an eye-catching 10.88s for the penultimate split. He recorded a finishing speed of 105.37%, the highest figure in the field and given that he was dropping back from 10-furlongs, this was probably close to a career best under the circumstances. He was alongside the winner at the 2-furlong pole, but the winner was able to lengthen into the final furlong and that proved to be the decisive factor between the pair. I’ll also add a small note to forgive Final Gambit for his 6th placed finish. Having been last of the 7-runners as they turned in, Flavien Prat chose to switch inside only to find the gap closing in front of him. Pulled wide, the race was over by the time his mount regained his momentum, but he ran 10.99s for the penultimate furlong and recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at 39.39 mph. He finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby in May and having switched back to the turf, he has produced a better performance than the form book might suggest and is worth another chance next time, possibly at 10-furlongs.
I think that covers any notes required for the “unlucky losers” but there is one final horse to note from the Belmont Derby Invitational this year and that is the runner-up, World Beater. This race represented a significant step up in class for Riley Mott’s charge and he emerges from this race with an enormous amount of credit. Having swung wide rounding the home turn, he has closed in furlongs of 10.88 and 11.31s, just 0.10s slower than Test Score and has finished strongly to hold Luther for 2nd place. An average stride length of 23.49 ft was the shortest of the 7-runners, but he showed a great attitude in the closing stages and with an increase from 7.31m to 7.55m into the penultimate furlong, his average stride length increased significantly (ranked 2nd) when the pace lifted. He has a lot of work to do to reverse the form with Test Score, but this was his first try in graded company and he showed more than enough to suggest that he is worthy of his place at this level.