I keep taking on Sovereignty and he keeps proving me wrong so it’s time to change tactics and recognise what looks to be the best 3-year-old dirt horse of the decade so far. There was a sense from the data that his victory in the Kentucky Derby could be attributed to his stamina, as he ground out a victory in very difficult conditions at Churchill Downs. That has played out to a point given the subsequent form of the race, but his performance at Saratoga on Saturday evening was flawless and must be treated as such. A finishing speed of 100.74% (the Kentucky Derby recorded 97.10%) should have suited Journalism better, but if anything, it was Sovereignty who benefitted and I’d be happy to say that he ran beyond his Churchill Downs performance on Saturday evening.
Stall 2 may have helped, but with a second furlong of 11.11s, the best in the field, Sovereignty was able to get into the perfect position behind the pace and was always travelling better than his old rival. Keeping Journalism on his outside, he was able to maintain a higher average stride frequency as they reached the bottom turn and by matching his rivals cruising speed at that point, he may have forced Umberto Rispoli’s hand when he chose to commit for home with 3-furlongs to run. Whilst Journalism had the longer average stride (25.52 ft) and the better top speed (42.03 mph), he never looked likely to shake off the attention of Sovereignty and once they turned for home, there was only going to be one winner. The winner lengthened when straightened for home, with his average stride length reaching a race peak of 7.63m in the penultimate furlong and Journalism simply had no answer at that stage. Fully 0.76s faster than the runner-up over the final quarter of a mile, Sovereignty has galloped on through the line, recording the fastest run-out speed in the field at 34.90 mph and confirming his place at the top of the 3-year-old tree. This performance had everything, early speed to get into the right position, the high cruising speed to hold that position and then the ability to lengthen in the straight to settle the matter. The Travers Stakes was mentioned as the obvious target for him, and it seems unlikely that anything is going to emerge to get the better of Sovereignty there.
Did the run in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico leave a mark on Journalism? That’s surely clutching at the thinnest of straws now. He was beaten with a furlong to run and may simply be bumping heads with a better horse. As we discussed in the buildup to the race, he is the fastest horse on the speedometer and once again his 42.03 mph figure was the quickest in the field, but he can’t sustain those bursts of speed for long enough against a horse of the calibre of Sovereignty. He took the first turn 4-wide and was slightly slower than the winner from the gate, running the opening quarter in 23.75s, but he was ideally placed by Umberto Rispoli and had every chance with half a mile to run. Once committed for home, Journalism ran the fastest 9th and 10th furlongs in the race (12.08, 12.18s), but he took just 0.2s out of Sovereignty at that point in the race and once into the straight, his stride began to shorten, and his race was run. To be fair to the horse, he has finished in the first 2 in all 3 of the Triple Crown races and he has put an extra 3-lengths between himself and Baeza at Saratoga when compared to the Kentucky Derby run. He’s a fast horse who has already proven in the Preakness that he is capable at this level and that he could potentially drop back in trip later in the year. However, we now have more data than we did a month ago and a look through everything we have at TPD would suggest that he doesn’t quite match up to Sovereignty in the final furlong. If his connections decide to try again, perhaps a change of tactics might get them closer, especially now that they’ve tried and failed to beat Sovereignty by committing first. A patient ride may allow Journalism to use his turn-of-foot to get closer, but giving a lead to a horse with the class of Sovereignty is a high-risk strategy and he is just as likely to win by further next time. Journalism is a top-class 3-year-old, but the data would suggest that he is bumping into one of the best 3-year-old dirt horses of the 21st Century.
It’s hard to be disappointed in Baeza given that he has finished 3rd in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes but given the positivity that could be taken from his finishing data at Churchill Downs, it’s difficult not to be underwhelmed by this performance. He didn’t travel with any fluency and didn’t look likely to get to the other 2 when the race began in earnest. When we rank the horses based on their individual furlong splits, his race reads as; 5387543432, with a run-out speed of 34.14 mph (ranked 3rd). There’s ability there and he looks capable of winning a Grade 1 race, but he has a shorter average stride length than Journalism and a lower average stride frequency than Sovereignty, so it’s hard to make a case for him reversing this form in the future. I’m reluctant to say that nothing else mattered in the race, but the front 3 pulled clear and although there was some promise from Rodriguez in 4th, who had to miss the Kentucky Derby, he was 1.62s slower than the winner over the final quarter of a mile and seems unlikely to get closer next time.