Betfred 2,000 Guineas
The first Classic of the season is already upon us and as can be expected with plenty of fancied runners this year, we have already lost one of the main contenders after Twain was ruled out earlier in the week having worked badly on Tuesday. If we take the different levels of form literally, that should leave the way clear for Field of Gold, who arrives at Newmarket on Saturday on the back of a very impressive 3-length win in the Craven Stakes last month. He recorded a top speed of 39.39 mph when winning that day, the fastest in the field and having been 0.97s faster than the runner-up (Wimbledon Hawkeye) over the final 2-furlongs, there is no obvious reason to believe that the Craven form can be reversed on Saturday. Field of Gold ran the fastest final quarter of a mile in 23.65s and with a run-out speed of 33.98 mph, also the best in the field, he had more lest than most after crossing the line. At 24.90 ft, his average stride length was the longest too and if Kieran Shoemark can get a clear run with him, there is no reason to think that he won’t be finishing strongly in the Guineas, and it will take an exceptional performance to beat him if he matches that level of form.
Can the Craven form be reversed? Well, it is not an impossibility, but there is only a limited amount of evidence from the data and the video replay from the closing stages. I’ll begin with Wimbledon Hawkeye. He was able to match Field of Gold with a top speed of 39.39 mph in the Craven Stakes and having taken 7.7s to reach 30 mph, he was slightly faster out of the stalls. The key moment in the race came at the bottom of the dip, when Harry Davies used the pro-cush to encourage him to quicken. Wimbledon Hawkeye leaned to his right, away from the strike, costing him ground and clearing space for Field of Gold to come through. It wasn’t enough to account for the 3-length defeat, but it was significant and given that he had been faster than Field of Gold in the 4th and 5th furlongs, there has perhaps been a slight overreaction in the market to this defeat. Although it must be said, he seems unlikely to completely reverse the form.
The Craven Stakes is not the only form line leading into the Guineas and if Field of Gold is to be toppled, then it seems more likely to come from another trial. I’ll begin with Ruling Court for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. He has already won the Jumeirah 2,000 Guineas at Meydan in March and with a week of unseasonably hot weather ahead, he seems likely to get similar ground to run on at the weekend. He recorded a top speed of 41.25 mph when coming from the rear to win by 6-lengths at Meydan, displaying a fast turn-of-foot that included sectionals of 11.82, 11.07 and 11.49s in the straight. The strength of that form is open to question, but he was a long way clear at the line and a run-out speed of 35.01 mph would suggest that there was more in the tank had he needed it. The turf track at Meydan is very different to the undulations of the Rowley Mile, but he did show a high level of form as a 2-year-old at Sandown and York and given that he took just 6.0s to reach 30 mph last time, there is every to believe that he will be able to get into a prominent position at the start on Saturday.
William Buick had a very difficult decision to make between Ruling Court and Shadow of Light. The latter is already a dual Group 1 winner on the track and although he lacks a fitness edge, on the balance of their form it would be fair to say that he has achieved more on the track than his stablemate. Even though there were only 5-runners in the Dewhurst, the field split into 2 groups which makes it a much harder piece of form to assess. However, what I can say with certainty is that Shadow of Light had a better top speed than the runner-up, the re-opposing Expanded, at 41.56 mph and he ran the fastest final 2-furlpongs in the field, closing in 11.44 and 12.87s. He needs to prove that he will stay the mile trip, but there is no obvious reason from the data or his pedigree to suggest that he won’t be able to, and he looks to have at least the same chance as his stablemate on the strength of his course form.
Now we come to the Irish Challenge. At this stage of the season, I don’t think that anyone would believe that Expanded is the best 3-year-old Colt at Ballydoyle. At the start of the week, he wasn’t considered to be their main challenger for this race, but he does bring Group 1 form into Saturday’s race and can’t be dismissed with Ryan Moore on board. Having just failed to get home in the Dewhurst, he shaped like a horse who would enjoy the step up to a mile, although given that he holds entries in both the Derby and the Commonwealth Cup, it’s probably fair to say that Aiden O’Brien and his team haven’t quite worked out this horse yet. It’s very easy to forget that his run in the Dewhurst came just 7-days after his debut win at the Curragh. He recorded closing sectionals of 11.64 and 12.24s on soft ground at the Curragh and shouldn’t be discounted as an afterthought from his trainer. Things haven’t gone to plan in the 2,000 Guineas for Aiden O’Brien in the last couple of years, but to run as well as he did in the Dewhurst Stakes on the back of a quick turnaround would suggest that there will be a lot more to come from Expanded in 2025.
There were only 4-runners in the Champions Juvenile Stakes won by Green Impact, but he got on top of the subsequent Futurity Stakes runner-up Delacroix when winning at Leopardstown in September and looks well worth a try in a Classic as a result. Trained by Jessica Harrington, he had the slowest top speed in the field at 38.86 mph, but he made up for that with a great attitude to hold off the challenge of the Ballydoyle runners as he closed in 11.75 and 12.77s. Delacroix was faster, finishing his race in 11.73 and 12.57s, but Green Impact had done enough to hold on and it is worth noting that he was lit up by the advancing Bernard Shaw (a Ballydoyle pacemaker for Delacroix in all likelihood) in the early stages. He recorded an average stride length of 7.42m and should handle the undulations of the Rowley Mile, although we can never be sure until a horse has raced over the course. If this develops into a tactical race, he may prove vulnerable to horses with a better turn-of-foot, but he is at least worth a try at this level after a solid 2-year-old campaign.
Green Impact has won a Group 2, but Scorthy Champ has a Group 1 victory on his CV courtesy of a three-quarters of a length win in the National Stakes at the Curragh in September. He got the better of Henri Matisse that day and if we draw form lines through Seagulls Eleven and Aomori City, he must have a chance on Saturday. Closing furlongs of 11.25, 11.25 and 12.42s on good ground would suggest that he has the necessary speed to be competitive and with an average stride length of 7.84m at the Curragh, he appears to have the size and scope to be a Guineas winner. Having made his ground on the far side of the course, he stayed on strongly in the closing stages, although the runner-up di hang to his right and hamper his stablemate at the furlong pole. We haven’t seen him since September, but in a stable tour for At the Races in March, Joseph O’Brien said “As a type, he very much looks one that will be better as a three-year-old and stepping up to at least a mile should suit him well. We are training him for the 2000 Guineas and feel that the track there will play to his strengths. He has done particularly well over the winter in physical terms and looks fantastic. We are counting down the days to Newmarket”. That’s a ringing endorsement for the horse and he could be the best of the Irish Challengers.
Do I think that Field of Gold is the most likely winner of the 2,000 Guineas? Yes. Do I want to back him at the current prices? No. He is simply too short for me in a race full of horses that can improve as 3-year-olds. The data would certainly suggest that the form from the Craven Stakes is unlikely to be reversed, but I think there are significant challenges for him to overcome from both sides of the Irish Sea. I would certainly want to respect the Godolphin pair and if it turned into a tactical race with a sprint finish, then Ruling Court would be of obvious interest. However, it seems unlikely to do so and for that reason I have decided to get behind Scorthy Champ. His National Stakes form looks very strong, and he appears to have all the attributes required to be a Guineas winner.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At the Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.