Al Garhoud Sprint Listed Stakes sponsored by Al Tayer
“El Nasseeb”
We can and will spend a lot of time looking at the action in the home straight at Meydan this season. However, there will be plenty of races where the start is more important than the finish and this race fits perfectly into that category. Despite having a field of just 7 going into the stalls, there was plenty of drama before the gates had even opened and I think that I can argue a case that a couple of the runners lost any chance before the starter had pushed the button. With a gate time of 65s, Ehraz (6th) was one of the first to load and he became fractious before the stalls opened, rearing and getting his head over the next stall before a stalls handler came in to calm him. He was one of the slowest to leave the stalls after those antics, taking 14.90s for the opening furlong after recording a time of 6.8s to reach 30 mph (ranked 7th). It clearly affected him and he took very little part in the contest. On his first start for nearly 12 months, it is surely best to simply put a line through this effort. It affected Ehraz, but the knock on effect was that it also upset the beaten favourite for the race, Dark Saffron. He also reared in the stalls under Connor Beasley and having got upset, he had to be driven forward when the gates opened to get into his customary front running position. To his credit, he was the fastest horse to reach 30 mph from the start (5.2s) and he did manage to get to the front, but he had to be hard ridden to do so and with competition for the lead and rapid early fractions, it proved too much. He was heavily eased once his chance had gone and I think it is worth forgiving him. The post race Stewards report confirmed as much and also reported that he had a cut on his jaw, presumably from being fractious in the stalls and a degree of mucus in his throat. This wasn’t the Dark Saffron that we saw win on World Cup night and that needs to be the first note added to this form.
The second point to note about the start of this race is the early pace. Dark Saffron, Rabaah and Mufasa all ran sub 10.5s second furlongs and having fought each other for the early lead, they did help to set the race up for a more patiently ridden winner. To add some context to that, Dark Saffron reached the 4 furlong pole in 23.82s. For comparison, Welcome Dream, who made all to win the 1,200m handicap earlier on the card, took 24.48s to reach the same point in the contest. At this pace, that’s around 5 or 6 lengths and to set such fast early fractions was always asking for trouble. It proved too much for Rabaah, who tracked Mufasa into the straight before looking an awkward ride and quickly fading from the 2 furlong pole. He had been a comfortable winner at Jebel Ali 3-weeks ago where he ran 58.10s for the 5 furlongs. He’s still lightly raced and he was forced wide at the start when Dark Saffron came out awkwardly, but this strong pace found him out. To his credit, Mufasa boxed on and having won the battle of speed on the front end, he is the horse that I am most keen to forgive. On his first start since April and just his 2nd in the UAE, he has run a fine race and having worked very hard to get to the front, he has understandably paid for his exertions. His average stride frequency figure dropped from a race peak of 2.64 per second to just 2.2 in the final furlong, a reduction of 17%. He was running on the proverbial “fumes” in the final furlong, recording a time of 14.08s compared to 12.40 for the penultimate split and provided this race doesn’t leave a mark (which it may well do), he is likely to prove to be better next time.
Having made some valid excuses for the beaten horses, I now want to give some deserved focus to the winner, El Nasseeb. He won over 6 furlongs on this card 12 months ago and although he can be a frustrating type, it is easy to forget that he has now won 4 of his 7 career starts in the UAE and with the exception of a below par run in the Mahab Al Shimaal behind Tuz in March (finished 12th) he has largely held his form. This was the perfect ride from Antonio Fresu, who allowed his mount to gather stride and waited for the pace to collapse. He took 24.61s for the opening quarter of a mile and once into the straight, he had plenty left, closing in the fastest fractions in the field (11.77 and 12.48s) to win comfortably, crossing the line 3.5 lengths ahead of the runner-up (Colour Up). He was still slowing down and that’s an important point to make, but he had enough in reserve, a theory confirmed by his stride frequency data which showed a drop from a race peak of 2.55 per second to 2.38 in the final furlong, a reduction of 6.7%. The good news for fans of this horse is that there will be plenty more opportunities for him over the season ahead and if Musabbeh Al Mheiri can keep him sound, he should be in the winner’s enclosure again. He benefitted from a pace collapse and that may not always be the case, but we know a lot about the 2nd (Colour Up) and the 3rd (Morning) and he was over 0.5s quicker than both of them in the final quarter of a mile. The former was slightly short of room in the straight, but not enough to make a difference to the result. Could El Nasseeb win the Golden Shaheen? That’s a tough question and there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we get to that point, but this performance did show that he is still improving and he at least deserves a place in those conversations at this early stage of the season.