Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025
The 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic went to Japan. Forever Young crowned a phenomenal 2025 campaign with a superb victory, racing on the front end under Ryusei Sakai before kicking for glory off the home turn. Having finished 3rd in the race 12-months ago he certainly wasn’t a shock winner and this performance confirmed his place as one of the best International dirt horses that we have seen run in the US. He is clearly the horse to focus on, but this was such an entertaining renewal of the Classic that it felt right to analyse the performance of each of the 9 runners that went to post.
Forever Young (Real Steel – Forever Darling). Ryusei Sakai became briefly unbalanced when leaving the stalls, but that was probably the only point in the race at which Forever Young looked in trouble. Once into a rhythm, he quickened smartly from the stalls with opening furlongs of 12.38 and 10.79s. The sectional times might suggest a case that Forever Young was in the right place at the right time, and that’s probably an accurate assessment. At no point in the race did he run the fastest furlong split, though his 10.79s 2nd furlong was just 0.01s behind the early pace setter (Contrary Thinking). The outsider of the field actually helped his cause, giving him a pace to track around the far turn, but the back stretch was very different this year. Middle furlongs of 12.11 and 12.21s (5th and 6th), compared to the 11.80 and 11.88s run by last year’s winner Sierra Leone over the same part of the course in 2024 point to a noticeable drop in the pace at halfway. This led to a concertina effect and as a result, there was perhaps an advantage to be gained by Forever Young from his more prominent position. As the field headed into the far turn, there were just 6 lengths from front to back and this allowed Forever Young to get the first run into the straight. Once in front, he found plenty for Ryusei Sakai, with each of his final 3 furlong splits ranking in the top 3 and a run-out speed of 35.61 mph only surpassed by the runner-up. In the 2024 Classic, he lost ground in the straight and drifted into the centre of the course, but he has since made amends and added a Breeders’ Cup Classic to his Saudi Cup victory from earlier in the year. He set a very high standard from a worldwide campaign and despite the drop in pace in the early stages, it should not be missed that he ran a faster winning time (2:00.19) than Sierra Leone managed in 2024.
Sierra Leone (Gun Runner – Heavenly Love) Last year’s winner lost very little in defeat in a race that wasn’t run to suit. Once again he has recorded a much longer average stride length figure than Forever Young, hitting a race peak average of 26.41 ft compared to the 25.13 ft recorded for the winner. Although the overall winning time was faster, this year’s race lacked the frantic early speed from 2024 and as a result, Sierra Leone found himself striding into the back of the pack as they compacted into the far turn. Once out in the clear, he made ground down the centre of the course and his final furlong time of 12.02s, a race best figure, was 0.31s faster than both the winner and the 3rd. A run-out speed of 36.19 mph, another race best figure, might point to the fact that he was an unlucky loser, but this race was lost at the start. It wasn’t a total surprise to see him drop in behind the early pace, but he conceded 1.15s to Forever Young by the time they reached the mile pole. In a race where he was 0.46s slower over the opening quarter of a mile than he was in 2024, the Classic just wasn’t run to suit this time around. A finishing speed of 95.81% in 2024, when compared to the 97.43% that he recorded this time around highlights the fine margins by which these races are won and the slight movement of the needle towards speed over stamina has seen him come up slightly short in his bid to defend his crown. Sierra Leone lost nothing in defeat, confirming the form with Fierceness and getting the better of Journalism in the process, the best 3-year-old to make it to this year’s race.
Fierceness (City of Light – Nonna Bella) enjoyed a relatively easy trip around the course from his plum draw in stall 1. Although slightly inconvenienced when Forever Young came across him to the inside rail in the penultimate furlong, it did not affect his chance of winning. Closing furlongs of 12.05 and 12.33s ranked 1st and 2nd in the field, but he was just 0.02s quicker than the winner over the final quarter of a mile. His final time of 2:00.43 was 0.65s faster than he ran 12 months ago. Having been well drawn and well placed, there are no obvious reasons to think that he could have won this race with a different trip. To give him due credit, despite a 2 lb swing at the weights, he has upheld the form with Journalism from the Pacific Classic in August and has proven himself to be a Grade 1 performer on multiple occasions. It is simply that he comes up a few lbs short of those at the very pinnacle of the dirt racing pyramid.
Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism) Can we use his performance to rate where Sovereignty would have finished in this race? Possibly, though the drop in pace in the back straight may well have inconvenienced the Champion 3-year-old. Regardless of that, Journalism has produced close to a career best to finish 4th behind 3 well established dirt racing champions. At an average of 25.40 ft, he consistently recorded the longest stride in the field and was the fastest horse in the field for furlongs 4 and 8. Much like Fierceness, he sat in the box seat behind the leaders before making his challenge 3-wide around the turn. Covering the extra ground clearly didn’t help his chances, but has been found out for stamina in the home stretch as Sierra Leone came readily past him. His closing splits of 12.26 and 12.69 were over 0.5s slower than the 3 horses that finished in front of him, a very similar story to his earlier defeats to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. As he showed in the Preakness, he has a superb turn-of-foot and when we look back at his 2025 campaign, it may point to a long striding miler whose stamina is slightly stretched by this 10 furlong trip.
Mindframe (Constitution – Walk of Stars). He ran a very fine race after what happened in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at Saratoga, confirming the earlier impression that his form gave after beating Sierra Leone in June. At 43.96 mph, he recorded the highest top speed figure in the contest, but he couldn’t sustain the effort into the straight and once headed, he was beaten. Mindframe has lost very little in defeat and having been quicker than Forever Young in furlongs 5 and 6 to get himself into a challenging position, he can be forgiven his tired effort in the straight. Having had a less than ideal preparation for this race, this was a solid effort and it’s not impossible to think that he could get closer if he returns in 2026.
Baeza (McKinzie – Puca) He came into this race on the back of a victory in the Pennsylvania Derby in September, but much like earlier in the season in the Triple Crown races, Baeza came up slightly short at the very highest level. He was the fastest horse in furlongs 6 and 7 (11.90 and 12.17s) as Hector Barrios attempted to close on the leaders, but his race top speed of 41.45 mph ranked last of the 9 runners and he simply lacked the class and stamina required to get on terms. He is a Grade 1 winner and has hit the frame in the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby to add to an impressive CV. However, with a shorter stride than the likes of Journalism and Sovereignty, he has come up slightly short this year and the data from his run in the Classic simply confirms that. “A very good horse in an exceptional year” would sum up his 3-year-old season.
Nevada Beach (Omaha Beach – Morrow Cove) A very lightly raced 3-year-old making just his 5th career start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic! He got the better of Full Serrano in the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita in September, but that rivals below par run in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile would now suggest that the form of that race is slightly open to question. He ran with great credit, but lost ground around the far turn when the run for home began before keeping on again in the home straight. His final furlong time of 12.76s ranked 5th and his run-out speed of 33.55 mph ranked 3rd, which would suggest that he did have something left. With more time and experience, he may yet be capable of further improvement and certainly shouldn’t be written off on the back of this run given how lightly raced he is for Bob Baffert.
Antiquarian (Preservationist – Lifetime Memory). He was a slightly fortunate winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga and as may have been expected, the form was readily reversed by Sierra Leone. His stride frequency averaged 2.24 per second in the back stretch and he appeared to be going as fast as he could to hold his position as they approached the far turn. The likes of Forever Young, Sierra Leone and Fierceness were able to increase their stride frequency into the 9th furlong, Antiquarian was not. He has had a fine season and his connections will be delighted to have a Grade 1 victory on his CV, but this proved to be a step too far.
Contrary Thinking (Into Mischief – Valadorna) Proved to be the pace angle and he was the fastest horse in each of the opening 3 furlongs as he reached the 7 furlong point in 34.24s. He couldn’t sustain such a pace and was eased when beaten, but given his bright early speed and the fact that he had the highest average stride frequency figure in each of the first 8 furlongs, he is not a horse to entirely dismiss, especially if his connections decide to drop him back to the mile trip. He is a nice horse, but was ultimately outclassed and ran to the level that his SP of 66/1 might have suggested he would.