Arkansas Derby (G1)

The form lines on the Road to the Kentucky Derby often begin to merge together at this time of the year. If any clues were needed, the fact that both Wayne’s Law and in particular The Puma ran so well in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream gave a clear boost to the form of RENEGADE before he went to post for the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The son of Into Mischief was beaten by Paladin a couple of times in New York at the end of 2025, but whilst that rival has now been ruled out of the Kentucky Derby because of injury, Renegade will be carrying that form into the big race at the start of May.

Data recorded by Renegade when winning the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

He had been a very comfortable winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay in February, quickening away inside the final furlong and recording a run-out speed of 36.04 mph, which was 4% faster than any of his rivals. On the strength of that form, he deserved to be a relatively short-priced favourite for this race on Saturday evening and although Irad Ortiz Jr did briefly have to get serious with him in the home straight, his class eventually told and he ran out a relatively easy winner on this first try in Grade 1 company too. Having dropped to the rear of the field, he was still last at halfway, but he made smooth progress as Ortiz spied a gap between the horses in front of him. His mount responded readily and although he was forced to come wide into the home straight, he proved to have far too much speed for this field in the latter stages of the race. Renegade recorded closing furlong splits of 12.12 and 11.84s, the latter of which being the only time that any of the runners dropped below a 12s split in the 2nd half of the contest. A late speed figure of 37.37 mph was almost 5% quicker than the next best figure (36.01 mph Silent Tactic) and he galloped on with a run-out speed 36.35 mph, the 3rd time that he has gone past the line with a run-out speed above 36 mph in his 5 starts. He clearly stays very well, but tactical speed would look to be his greatest weapon. At an average of 23.68 ft, he recorded the shortest average stride length figure in the Arkansas Derby field, but what he lacked in pure size, he made up for with speed and he recorded the highest average stride frequency figure for 5 of the last 6 furlongs.

It is hard to equate his form with some of the other Kentucky Derby trials, but the runner-up, Silent Tactic, has finished in the first 2 on each of his 6 starts to date and won the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in January. Renegade was able to dispatch him with relative ease and was 0.91s faster than Silent Tactic over the final quarter of a mile as he recorded a finishing speed of 100.3%. He stays well and showed on Saturday evening that he is comfortable running between horses, which should work in his favour in the Derby and whilst there are a couple of others that I would consider to have stronger claims at this point, Renegade has earned his chance and it’s not impossible to think he could be involved in the finish in 5 weeks time.