Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1)
Saratoga - 6th June 2026
“Golden Tempo had the higher finishing speed (99.1%) and combined with his longer stride, it would be a mistake to assume that this was a “one off” performance simply because of his starting price”. Those were the words that I wrote on this blog when discussing the winner of the Kentucky Derby last month. I followed that up on a podcast with the excellent Peter Fornatale where I made the case that the horse to take from the Kentucky Derby was Golden Tempo. He was the best horse in the race at Churchill Downs, so what did I do on Saturday? Yes. You guessed correctly, I talked myself into thinking this would be a tactical race and that it would suit Renegade better than Golden Tempo. Alas, you learn far more from backing a loser than you do when you get it right and I will just have to wait for the Breeders’ Cup Classic to get my turn with Golden Tempo. That’s probably a bold statement at this stage given that we don’t yet know how the 3-year-old forms will compare with the older horses, but if like me you had some nagging doubts about Golden Tempo after the Kentucky Derby, those doubts can now be thoroughly dispelled.


The rain falling as the horses began to load may have been an inconvenience for the crowds watching at Saratoga and could possibly have had a slight impact on the overall time of the race (a winning time of 2:03.49 made this the slowest of the 3 renewals to be run at Saratoga) but Golden Tempo still won. In a race run with a finishing speed of 96.7%, he could easily have finished a “running on” 3rd and it would have suggested that he had matched the level of form that he showed in Kentucky. However, having taken up his customary position towards the rear of the field, Golden Tempo had to be committed for home earlier in the race to try and get on terms as they rounded the far turn. He passed that test with flying colours, closing from halfway as he ran consecutive furlongs of 11.86, 12.21 and 12.67s, each of which was the fastest split of the 9 runner field. Forced to switch wide into the straight, his long stride, which reached its peak at halfway (26.22 ft) was simply too much for Commandment as the pair were driven for the line and Golden Tempo rounded off a top class performance with another race best figure for the final furlong in 12.91s. This was the 2nd race in a row that he has recorded the fastest late speed figure in the field and having conceded ground to Renegade on both occasions, he has firmly put the beaten favourite in his place.
So can Golden Tempo do it against the older horses? We can’t be sure because at this stage Golden Tempo is yet to race outside of his own age group. However, we are able to say that he would appear to have the attributes required to compete at that level. If we take a race like the Travers Stakes as a working example, the data from TPD would show that the average winner of a race in those conditions records an average stride length of 24 ft at a stride frequency of 2.26 strides per second. Golden Tempo recorded an average stride length of 25.3 feet on Saturday evening at a peak stride frequency of 2.23 per second. His long stride and patient running style does lower his stride frequency figure, but having recorded late speed figures of 36.6 and 34.8 mph when winning his respective triple crown races, far above the average winner’s figure of 33 mph for the Travers Stakes, we have sufficient evidence to suggest that Golden Tempo has the necessary speed required in the latter stages of a Grade 1 race. As you can probably tell, I have a lot of time for Cherie Devaux’s 3-year-old and I’d be happy to say that I think he is easily the best of this year’s crop. Sovereignty confirmed a similar conclusion when winning this race last year and there are clear similarities between the pair. Golden Tempo ran a much slower time, but given his stride length and the position he came from, I’m almost prepared to upgrade this performance even further. All 9 runners quickened when they passed the halfway mark, but Golden Tempo was the only horse to do so for consecutive furlongs and it is that sustained speed that is winning his races. There is every chance that racing against the older horses will bring out even more improvement in this son of Curlin.
As for the other runners, I couldn’t find any particular reason to think that there were any unlucky losers in the race. Renegade had a better trip, but he ran in snatches at times and having been beaten twice by Golden Tempo, there isn’t an obvious case to be made for this form to be turned around. At an average of 23.35 ft, he had one of the shortest strides in the field and he may simply be slightly better over the shorter trips or in a smaller field where the requirement to gallop for longer stretches is not as important. Instead of Renegade, I think it is Commandment who has taken the bigger step forward. He finished 2nd to a Kentucky Derby winner after all, but having recorded the shortest average stride length in the field (23.23 ft) he ran a remarkable race to go with Golden Tempo when they straightened for the judge. At 12.73s, he ran the fastest penultimate furlong in the field and his overall time for the final quarter of a mile was just 0.15s slower than the winner. Golden Tempo ultimately put him in his place and his run-out speed was almost 2 mph faster, but this was the Commandment that we saw winning in Florida earlier in the year and he has run to a standard that may well have been enough to win the majority of Grade 1 races on the dirt.