Betfair Ascot Chase Preview
I have tried very hard to find a reason why this year’s Ascot Chase won’t develop into a 2 horse race but it’s not an easy task. I’ll come to Edwardstone in a moment, but with the exception of the 2022 Arkle Winner, there really isn’t a case to be made for anything else upsetting the match race between Jonbon and Pic D’Orhy. The Skeltons made several entries, but much like the run of Riskintheground in the Denman Chase at Newbury last week, they are surely here to simply pick up some minor prize money. Classic Maestro is an admirable horse but with an official rating of 131, he is surely a long way short of what’s going to be required on Saturday afternoon. Blow Your Wad could perhaps finish 3rd at a real push. He won the Pendil at Kempton in 2024, running the fastest final furlong and recording the highest top speed figure (36.15 mph) as he got the better of Tahmuras. He has missed a lot of time in the last 2 years, but he did run reasonably well in a pair of handicap chases here before Christmas. This will be his first start for Gary and Josh Moore and it’s interesting to see him pitched in at this level for his new yard, but he is yet to show any form that would suggest he can trouble the proven Grade 1 horses.
I will give some column inches to Edwardstone. It’s been nearly 4 years since he won the Arkle and over 3 since he last won in this company in the 2022 Tingle Creek at Sandown. He’s enjoyed a small renaissance this season and deserved to get his head in front when winning the Silviniaico Conti Chase at Kempton last time. However, whilst he was a worthy winner in the end, clocking the fastest final quarter of a mile as he ran down the long time leader Master Chewy, the race did fall apart when the short priced favourite Kalif du Berlais was fatally injured at halfway. He was the only horse to record a finishing speed above 100% and his 33.71 mph on the speedometer was the best of the 3 finishers. However, Master Chewy is a slightly suspect stayer at the trip and he did very little to advertise that form in the Game Spirit at Newbury behind Lulamba last week. Edwardstone has been a wonderful servant for his connections and he has held his form better than most 12-year-olds do, but to think he could win another Grade 1 race, over 3 years after his last, seems unlikely unless the 2 principles really fluff their lines.
I wrote a preview of this race in 2025. The data suggested that Pic D’Orhy was likely to dominate that race and that he would have far too much speed for Corbett’s Cross. He did. Whilst that may be a little bit of after-timing, I felt that he was almost unbeatable at Ascot when I looked at this race 12-months ago, there was no obvious danger to him. If he turns up in the same form that he has shown when winning this race in 2024 and 2025, then he will win. He lost an average of just 7.5% of his speed over his fences in 2025, the most fluent jumping performance in the field and he powered away in the straight, running 4 consecutive fastest furlong splits as he ran out a reasonably comfortable 10 length winner. He wasn’t in the same form in the autumn, but Paul Nicholls was also struggling for form at that time and in hindsight, I can make some excuses. The 3 mile trip has always looked to be beyond Pic D’Orhy and to attempt it in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, at the age of 10, was asking too much. That race was won by Djelo, who backed up that performance with a victory in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon a month later. However, Pic D’Orhy was able to lead in a race run with a finishing speed of 104.7% and yet Djelo readily picked him up in the straight with the fastest final 4 furlong splits. The other 3 runners in the Charlie Hall barely beat a rival on their next starts and having been turned out just 21 days later at Ascot, Pic D’Orhy failed to fire. Perhaps the soft ground was against him, as was the early competition for the lead, but he faded from the mile pole and having lost an average of 10.2% of his speed over his fences, his jumping was significantly below his usual high standard and the figures recorded by Jango Baie (8.2%) and Gidleigh Park (5.5%). Paul Nicholls team have turned the corner in recent weeks and at the time of writing he is operating at a 34.6% strike rate in the last 14 days. If we examine their most recent starts at Ascot, Pic D’Orhy comes out on top as the more fluent jumper. However, his record on Soft or Heavy ground is suspect at best and whether he will have the stamina to jump fluently in front and hold the inevitable challenge from Jonbon is very debatable.
When I wrote my review of the Clarence House Chase in January, I said that I felt it was one of the best performances of Jonbon’s career. Some people may disagree with that and a lot depends on how the performance of Thistle Ask is viewed. However, I would argue that chasing home an improving younger horse who set fast fractions on testing ground was a superb effort. Jonbon recorded a finishing speed of 94.19%. the slowest finishing speed since we began to record that data for him in 2023. The alternative thought is that the Clarence House Chase was clearly a hard race and it may well have left a mark. However, Jonbon has held his form throughout his career and I’d argue that this race is highly unlikely to be run under similar circumstances. The pace is likely to be relatively sedate, with the most obvious pace angle coming from Pic D’Orhy, who will surely be ridden with restraint given his record on soft ground. Jonbon maintained an average stride frequency of 2.12 per second over the final half a mile last month and finished his race like a horse who is in need of this trip, especially if the pace develops later. His jumping could improve. He lost an average of 12% of his speed over his obstacles in the Clarence House and that got considerably worse as the race wore on. However, at a slower pace he should be more accurate, as he was when beating Energumene in the same race 12-months earlier. He is going in search of a 10th Grade 1 victory on Saturday and provided Nico de Boinville keeps him close enough to the pace, he should be capable of completing that remarkable feat.
If we had better ground, I’d be keen to take on Jonbon. The jumping fluency data would suggest that Pic D’Orhy is the better jumper of the pair and if he was able to gallop in front he may well be able to get Nicky Henderson’s star out of his comfort zone and may force him to make errors. However, despite the fact that Paul Nicholls’ charge has a superb Ascot record and the yard have definitely hit top form, the Soft ground is nagging away at me and I just feel that Jonbon will have too much stamina for Pic D’Orhy in the closing stages. It’s an unoriginal choice and I’m not sure that we will learn too much about any potential bid for Ryanair glory regardless of how well Jonbon performs. However, his record and his stamina speaks for itself after last month’s brave display.