Betfred May Hill Stakes (G2)
Doncaster 10th September
“If we assume that she continues to improve, the data would suggest that it will take an exceptional performance to break her unbeaten run”
We may not have learned a great deal about Musical Times when she cantered to victory under a penalty at Yarmouth in July, but we learned on Thursday afternoon that she is an exceptional 2-year-old filly. I say we learned very little at Yarmouth, but I think it’s important to acknowledge that in a race that she entirely controlled in front, Musical Times was able to record a race best top speed figure of 42.33 mph as she recorded closing splits of 10.90 and 11.11s. The form hadn’t worked out particularly well, but we were at least left in little doubt that Musical Times was the best horse in the race. She had potential, but what she achieved on Thursday afternoon in the Betfred May Hill Stakes was far beyond anything that could have been suggested in the Yarmouth sunshine.
A winning time of 1:37.58 was 2.71s under the TPD Expected time figure for the May Hill Stakes and despite the Good to Soft ground, only Desert Flower (2024) and Inspiral (2021) have run better times in the last 10 years. In fact, as you can see from the above graphic, if we filter out the races run on Good to Firm ground in the last 5 years, only Desert Flower has run a faster time as a 2-year-old over the mile at Doncaster. I thought Musical Times settled perfectly for William Buick despite getting a slight bump shortly after leaving the stalls and when asked to go and win her race at the 2 furlong pole, she quickened with ease. Once on terms with the leader (Sea of Rain), she was allowed to stretch and had opened a gap between herself and the rest in the space of just a few strides. A couple of reminders from William Buick saw her come home with closing splits of 11.68 and 12.23s to win by 7.5 lengths (1.32s) and her late speed figure of 37.40 mph was more than 5% faster than the runner-up. This was a dominant display from this daughter of Lope De Vega and she has suddenly propelled herself to the head of the 2-year-old ranks, with the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket looking like her most obvious target according to Charlie Appleby’s post-race interview. She is likely to be a very short price for that race and on the back of this performance, she quickly shortened from 25/1 into favouritism for the 1,000 Guineas in May. The Guineas meeting is a long way away, but at this stage, she would appear to be the best of the Fillies that have run over the mile trip.
Sometimes when a horse wins a race by a wide margin it can create a false impression. The field in behind may not have been that deep or the race may have fallen apart in the conditions. That simply isn’t the case with this year’s May Hill Stakes. Everything in our data metrics suggest that this was as impressive as it looked and the runner-up (Scommessa Sicura) ran a time that would have been good enough to win 5 of the last 10 renewals, even though she was more than 7 lengths behind Musical Times. If we assume that she continues to improve, the data would suggest that it will take an exceptional performance to break her unbeaten run.