Joseph O’Brien’s filly may not have won a particularly traditional Oaks race and a finishing speed of 111.8% does point to a reasonably steady pace followed by a sprint finish. Sugar Island set those fractions and she took 1:51.39 to cover the opening mile. For some comparison, in the 2025 race Whirl took 1:50.72 to cover the same distance. However, whilst some of her rivals struggled to quicken when the pace began to lift, Thundering On quickened readily, running the fastest final 5 furlong splits in the field including a race best 11.69s for the 9th furlong as the sprint for home began. Increasing her average stride frequency to 2.25 strides per second, she clocked a top speed of 38.5 mph and sustained that acceleration for almost 3 furlongs in the straight. That was enough to see off the challenge of the Ballydoyle runners and once on terms she always seemed likely to win once getting a run towards the stands side of her main rival Legacy Link. Having been last at the end of the 3rd furlong and 1.5s behind the leader, this was a remarkable run through the field. Yes. We do need to acknowledge that the gaps opened for Dylan Browne McMonagle and having tracked Sugar Island through, maybe Colin Keane could have tried to switch across to the stands rail to get the first run for the line. However, the fact that Thundering On was so much faster than Legacy Link over the final half a mile would suggest that Joseph O’Brien’s filly would have found a way to win regardless of the way the race panned out, especially given that she finished her race around 4 widths of the favoured rail anyway.

A brief glance at the speed data would point to the fact that the winner and the runner-up had the same top speed figure at 38.49 mph. It would also point to the fact that Thundering On recorded a run-out speed of 30.7 mph, which ranked 4th. However, the run-out speed can be influenced by how hard a horse is ridden through the line and the fact that Dylan Browne McMonagle knew he had the race won, whilst those with better speeds had to be ridden through the line to finish in the best possible position is the key to that. At TPD we measure a horse’s average stride frequency throughout a race and also furlong by furlong. Thundering On reached her peak average figure of 2.36 strides per second in the final furlong of the Oaks. Her finishing speed may have helped that result, but it also confirms that she had plenty left in the tank had it been required. She was truly exceptional and quickened from last to first despite being behind a relatively steady pace. The winner of the Oaks was the best filly on show and by some distance, the data suggests that this form will not be reversed and it will be fascinating to see where her connections choose to go next.