BOYLE SPORTS LOCKINGE STAKES (G1)
Newbury - 16th May 2026
I’ll try and sum up the 2026 Lockinge Stakes in just a few short words; “Some tried, some succeeded and most failed”. That’s a very basic way of putting things and I am well aware that it would sum up 99.9% of all races run. However, my initial thoughts when watching the Lockinge were that every runner had their chance if they were good enough and having had time to watch it back a few times and also to review the data from TPD, I think that holds true. In fact, the only possible hard luck story would have been if the well backed favourite Notable Speech hadn’t been able to find racing room inside the final quarter of a mile. He did and once he had the required racing room, William Buick had simply to ask him to quicken to win a 5th Group 1 race. Notable Speech has been a hard horse to follow at times. For every superb success like today’s, there is a run like his penultimate start in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland to bring his supporters down to earth. He is a compact son of Dubawi who has recorded the shortest average stride length figure in the field on each of his last 4 starts. In part, that is because of the way that he needs to be ridden behind the pace and as a result he doesn’t get the chance to fully stretch until pulled out to make his challenge. He doesn’t fit the overall profile that we have for a straight mile winner at Newbury, where winners record an average stride length above 24 ft, but that average comes from looking at the handicappers (the limited number of group races over the course and distance means we have a small number of observations to work with) and there is no doubt that this race did setup perfectly for Notable Speech.
The ground was described as “Good” and given that Notable Speech recorded a winning time of 1:36.27, within 0.25s of the TPD Expected time for a Class 1 race over this course and distance, I think it is safe to take that going description as accurate. Mississippi River had to be driven from the gate to get to the front, but he clocked 11.56 and 11.59s for the 2nd and 3rd furlongs and helped to set an even if not searching gallop. The winner recorded a finishing speed of 102.6% and ran the fastest splits for furlongs 5 and 8 as he ran out a 2 length winner. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with speed and his average stride frequency ranked highest for 7 of the 8 furlongs of the contest. A race average of 2.47 strides per second was augmented with a peak average of 2.57 strides per second, another race best figure and the fact that he can vary his stride length, which reached a race low average of 19.82 ft, meant that he could be ridden behind the leaders with confidence because he is nimble enough to get himself through the gaps when he is asked to. There will be times when those gaps don’t come, but at Newbury they did and once through them, Notable Speech had the speed to finish his race as he recorded a late speed figure of 38.07 mph (also ranked 1st). He’s run in 13 Group 1 races and he has won 5 of them, so it’s very hard to fault him and this victory has surely cemented his future stallion career, but will he confirm this form at Ascot next month?
I ask that question in a slightly loaded manner because I do think the case can be made for More Thunder reversing the form next time. He was slightly keen in the early stages of what was his first start of the season and having been stepped up to the mile trip, it was no surprise to see him assume his customary position towards the rear of the field. He followed Notable Speech through the field and with 3 furlongs to run he was 0.34s behind the winner, having taken 61.97s to cover the opening 5 furlongs of the race. By the time they crossed the line, that gap had been maintained at 0.34s as the pair of them ran 34.64s for the final 3 furlongs. More Thunder recorded a race best run-out speed of 34.09 mph and given that he was conceding race fitness to the rest of the field, he would be entitled to improve naturally for the benefit of this first run in 223 days. His average stride length of 24.78 ft (ranked 2nd of 10) was considerably longer than Notable Speech’s and if they were to meet in the Queen Anne, there is a good chance that he would have a better chance of reversing this form with the stiff finish at Ascot in his favour. Notable Speech has already had a couple of cracks at Royal Ascot and he has come up short, which can only add to the enthusiasm for William Haggas’ charge. Last year’s renewal was a bizarre race where the field crawled for the opening half a mile and the first 6 horses to cross the line recorded a finishing speed above 108%. If More Thunder lines up in a race run at that pace, he will struggle. His hold-up style of running will make it very hard to close from the rear behind that kind of early pace in a Group 1 race, but the 2025 renewal would look to be an outlier and if the pace is more even, I’d have to be with More Thunder to reverse this form.
I don’t really want to dwell on the beaten horses. The data collected by TPD would suggest that the best 2 horses fought out the finish. Zeus Olympus and Sahlan were perhaps slightly inconvenienced by challenging on the wings, but neither could match the pace of the winner in the final quarter of a mile and I think the latter is much better when going around a bend. The Lion in Winter did look to have a hard race when he won at Leopardstown and maybe that race left its mark given he had to dig deep and recorded a finishing speed of 97%. The cheekpieces didn’t appear to help and having had every chance, he seemed to struggle when the pace lifted and he was over a second slower than the winner for the final 2 furlongs. He perhaps slips into a very awkward 9 furlong category, where he doesn’t quite have the speed for the mile, but the 10 furlong trip stretches his stamina. I will give a small mention to Dancing Gemini. He was 2nd in this race behind Lead Artist last year and probably ran to a similar level in what looked to be a deeper race this time around. As you can see from his infographic below, he had the fastest top speed figure in the field and ranked 3rd for both speed metrics at the end of the contest. I don’t think he is likely to win a G1 race and he was ridden to finish his race well, but a slight drop in grade would certainly make him of interest after another fine run.
Notable Speech was the right winner of the Lockinge. He traveled nicely and once he went through the gaps, he quickened nicely to win by 2 lengths. The side on camera at the 2 furlong pole gives a great angle as we get to see Notable Speech quicken past the leaders. It’s a great watch and it perfectly sums up how good this horse is. However, I will add a very small point from our data. At the point that Notable Speech was quickening past the field and going on to win the race, More Thunder was running a faster penultimate furlong split. That may be significant later in the season.