Cheltenham Festival Data Clues 2026
The initial plan was for this to be a “horses to follow” piece and I will be adding some tips from the data on this blog in the next week, but the more I worked on the research and looked through the data, the more angles I found that I felt couldn’t be left out. So having put the hours in, I have instead written a summary for some of the most eye-catching points that I have found across the 4 days.
Day 1
The Festival will get underway with one of the most competitive Supreme Novice Hurdle fields that I can remember. I’m a huge fan of Old Park Star and although any value in his price has long gone, I haven’t forgotten how impressive he was when winning at Haydock in January and the data did nothing but back up that view. Carrying 1 lb more, over the final 6 furlongs he was over 6s quicker than Brentford Hope, who won the handicap hurdle earlier on the card over the same course and distance. The now retired Brentford Hope is a solid yard stick to use for comparison and the fact that he gave The New Lion and Nemean Lion a race at Cheltenham just a week later suggests he was close to peak form. Under a hands ride from Nico de Boinville, Old Park Star produced a top speed of 35.83 mph, the quickest top speed of any hurdler on the Haydock card that day and he beat the times of Brentford Hope doing handstands. It will take a very quick horse to beat him in the opener on this evidence.
I can’t really form a strong opinion on the Arkle because it is virtually impossible to know what kind of race Kopek des Bordes is going to run. We haven’t seen him since November and although the schooling sessions at Punchestown and Fairyhouse are reported to have gone well, it surely can’t simulate Grade 1 race conditions so it has to be a watching brief. However, there is a small point on Lulamba that needs to be made. Initially, I found his run in the Game Spirit at Newbury a little underwhelming, but in hindsight when viewed as an educational ride, there are some positives to take. Once given room to race in the home straight, his jumping improved and he recorded an average speed loss of 12.5% over his fences in the latter stages at a top speed of 33.29 mph. That may not sound overly quick, but on ground described as “Heavy”, those figures compare well with his more established rivals on the day. Whether it will be enough to keep tabs on Kopek des Bordes, or whether it will even need to be, can only be guesswork at this point.
I don’t have a huge opinion on the Champion Hurdle either, but having seen Golden Ace as an each-way play for the last week or so, I have perhaps slightly underplayed her win chance. If State Man was in this race, he would most likely be a short priced favourite. He would have won last year’s race if he had gotten over the last, but I saw it pointed out earlier this week that Golden Ace wasn’t as far adrift as I remembered (credit Frank Hickey of Paddy Power for this) when I watched it back. I’m not saying she would have beaten him by any means, but a look at the live data showed that she was just 0.4s slower than him in the furlong prior to his final flight fall. In what looks to be a weaker race than last year, she is perhaps being slightly overlooked for win purposes based on what she achieved in 2025 and a similar run close to the figures produced by State Man might be enough.
There are a couple of angles in the Plate. As you can see from our infographic above, the figures produced by Madara at the end of his most recent start at Kempton were very eye-catching. He’s been targeted at some big races in the past, most notably when winning for Sophie Leech at the Dublin Racing festival and I thought the way he was handled by Harry Skelton at Kempton last month suggested he was being lined up for another big day. The run-out speed figure is taken 2s after the horses have crossed the line and the fact that his figure of 30.8 mph was 7% quicker than anything else in the field at Kempton would suggest that he has more to come. The problem could be that there is another eye-catching runner in the field in the shape of McLaurey. He won a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in 2025 when he beat Storm Heart and after 4 relatively quiet runs over fences, he comes into this race on a workable mark of 133. Although 4th at Down Royal behind Anotherway last time, he ran the final quarter of a mile in 30.55s (the fastest final quarter of a mile in the field) and would look to be capable of improvement now handicapping. After just 4 starts over fences, he perhaps has more in hand than the more exposed Madara, even with the Skelton’s clearly having a long term plan for the horse.
In the National Hunt Chase there is a small point to be made about Wade Out. He was the most efficient jumper in the field when he got the better of Wendigo earlier in the season at Worcester, losing an average of just 5.8% of his speed over his obstacles. However, fast forward to Windsor in January, albeit in a better race, and his jumping was much less efficient when he finished 4th behind Salver in the Hampton Novices’ Chase. He lost an average of 14% of his speed over his fences that day, ranked 5th of the 6 runners and so he will need to jump better, which the drying ground may help him to do.
DAY 2
There aren’t as many angles from the data on Wednesday, but I have included the infographic above for No Drama This End when he won the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He was the right winner on the day, but the race developed into a tactical affair and he only managed to run the fastest individual furlong once in the final mile (13.02s for the penultimate furlong) with his top speed figure of 36.5 mph ranked only 4th in what has to be considered a weaker field than this. He may improve of course, but he does look vulnerable based on the evidence we have from the data from Newbury and there may well be a few quicker rivals who will leave him behind as they turn for home.
If he can be trusted to jump round, the Champion Chase should really go to Majborough, who looked a class apart from this field when he won at the Dublin Racing Festival last month, especially now that the reigning champion Marine Nationale has been ruled out. He should win, but behind him is a difficult race to pick apart. One angle that I did find came with Quilixios. He fell when still in contention last season and given that the sectionals show that he was quicker than Marine Nationale over the quarter of a mile directly before his fall, it’s not impossible to think that he may have won. We haven’t seen him since and so his form and well-being would have to be taken entirely on trust, but in a race that certainly isn’t any deeper, a repeat of the effort should be enough to at least hit the frame.
I also can’t really rely too heavily on the data when looking at the Cross-Country race. It’s a horse for courses type of race and it would be no surprise to see Stumptown become the 5th multiple winner of the race. However, whilst I am very keen on his chances, despite Gavin Cromwell’s perceived lack of form this season, the sectional data from last year does temper a little bit of enthusiasm. His late speed figure of 26.82 mph ranked only 3rd behind Vanillier and The Goffer. It’s only a small doubt and Keith Donoghue was only minding him in the final furlong, but with more weight to carry and a long absence to overcome it does leave a small feeling of caution about his chances, even though I still feel he is the most likely winner.
Day 3
The changes to the Thursday card haven’t really made it any easier from a punting perspective and there are very few angles that I could find. The Stayers’ Hurdle is a tough race, but I did think the market had overreacted to Impose Toi’s defeat in the Cleeve Hurdle and I certainly feel like the difference between his price and that of Honesty Policy was wrong. As you can see from our graphic, Impose Toi was the fastest horse in the closing stages of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot earlier in the season and over the final 5 furlongs he was quicker than Honesty Policy in all but the last 100 yards. He had a longer average stride length figure (22.58 ft) and the better jumping fluency score, losing an average of 5.2% of his speed over his hurdles compared to the 6.1% lost by Honesty Policy. The latter is less exposed, but this can be a tough assignment for such a lightly raced horse. Impose Toi was no match for Ma Shantou last time, but I think the softer ground went against him and he was still faster than the winner in the 3 furlong splits leading to the straight. Nico de Boinville seemed keen to mind him in the closing stages, presumably with this race in mind and I would be happy enough to think he will run closer to his Ascot form on Thursday. Whether that is enough to beat the Irish horses is open to debate, but he is the horse who looked to be the wrong price at the time of writing when I went through our data on the leading contenders.
The Ryanair has been one of those races where we all sit and play “Willie Mullins Bingo” in the hope of guessing what he will run this year. At the time of submitting this piece, we still don’t know, but if Fact to File runs, he will be hard to beat. In last season’s race, he had the highest late speed figure at 29.9 mph and was the fastest horse in each of the final 3 furlongs as he pulled further and further clear. Those closing splits meant he was over a second faster than Heart Wood over the last 3 furlongs and having been the only horse to record a sub 13s furlong in the race when he ran 12.96s for the 20th split, he should be able to produce a similar result if he runs here.
Day 4
If we make it to Friday in one piece, things won’t get that much easier on what looks to be a very difficult end to the week. The hurdle races looked impossible at this stage, but there are a couple of angles into the Chases, starting with Panic Attack if she runs in the Mares’ Chase. She has had an incredible season for Dan Skelton and Bryan Drew and looks well worth her place in the market for this race given her record at the track. She didn’t need to improve to win at Newbury in the Listed Alder Demain & Akers Mares’ Chase, but she put in another superb round of jumping, losing a race best average of just 6.2% of her speed over her fences. In all 3 starts this season, she has produced the fastest late speed figure and run the fastest splits for the final 2 furlongs. I firmly believe that it’s important to try and stick with Mares’ when they are at their peak and even though she is a 10-year-old, I think we have enough evidence that Panic Attack is now at that career peak.
I think Haiti Couleurs will make the running in the Gold Cup. He has already dominated a Welsh National and the Denman Chase this season and given the fact that we already know that he handles the track and will clearly stay the trip, that seems to be the most obvious tactic for his connections to employ. In both of those races he had the fastest run-out speed in the field, perhaps most significantly when recording 30.1 mph at the end of the 3 miles and 6 furlongs of the Welsh National at Chepstow. That race was run on a very quick surface for December and the overall time that he recorded was 21s faster than the TPD Expected time for the race. The official going description of “Good to Soft” was clearly open to some debate with that kind of time difference, but even so, it shows that Haiti Couleurs should have the pace to maintain his lead. However, his jumping can sometimes slip under the radar. When we look at his jumping fluency scores for both Chepstow and Newbury it raises a slight question. He lost an average 10.7% of his speed over his obstacles in the Welsh National (ranked 7th) and at Newbury, despite having a smaller field to control, he lost 13% of his speed which ranked 4th of 4. He will undoubtedly complete the course, but there will also be much better horses behind him than he has ever raced against before and so if his jumping does cost him a few lengths, they are more likely to be capable of taking advantage.
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you’re backing at Cheltenham this week.